With 18 teams each playing 23 games in a 24-round season, all clubs are hit with ‘double-up’ match-ups, where certain sides play games against each other twice during the year.
The AFL uses a ‘weighted rule’ to determine who plays each other twice, breaking the 18 teams into three groups: the top six teams from the previous year’s ladder (based on finals results), the middle six and bottom six.
Teams then play teams that finished in their bracket on the ladder more often, though with an extra game on the 2023 AFL fixture, this does not seem to be a hard-and-fast rule.
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2023 AFL FIXTURE BRACKETS (Based on 2022 ladder)
Top six: Geelong, Sydney, Collingwood, Brisbane Lions, Melbourne, Fremantle
Middle six: Richmond, Western Bulldogs, Carlton, St Kilda, Port Adelaide, Gold Coast
Bottom six: Hawthorn, Adelaide, Essendon, GWS Giants, West Coast, North Melbourne
EVERY TEAM’S 2023 DOUBLE-UPS
Adelaide: Brisbane, Collingwood, Gold Coast, GWS, Port Adelaide, West Coast
Brisbane: Adelaide, Collingwood, Fremantle, Gold Coast, Melbourne, St Kilda
Carlton: Collingwood, Gold Coast, GWS, Melbourne, St Kilda, West Coast
Collingwood: Adelaide, Brisbane, Carlton, Essendon, Geelong, Port Adelaide
Essendon: Collingwood, Geelong, GWS, North Melbourne, Port Adelaide, West Coast
Fremantle: Brisbane, Geelong, Hawthorn, Sydney, West Coast, Western Bulldogs
Geelong: Collingwood, Essendon, Fremantle, Port Adelaide, Sydney, Western Bulldogs
Gold Coast: Adelaide, Brisbane, Carlton, North Melbourne, St Kilda, Sydney
GWS: Adelaide, Carlton, Essendon, Hawthorn, Sydney, Western Bulldogs
Hawthorn: Fremantle, GWS, Melbourne, North Melbourne, St Kilda, Western Bulldogs
Melbourne: Brisbane, Carlton, Hawthorn, North Melbourne, Richmond, Sydney
North Melbourne: Essendon, Gold Coast, Hawthorn, Melbourne, St Kilda, West Coast
Port Adelaide: Adelaide, Collingwood, Essendon, Geelong, Richmond, Western Bulldogs
Richmond: Melbourne, Port Adelaide, St Kilda, Sydney, West Coast, Western Bulldogs
St Kilda: Brisbane, Carlton, Gold Coast, Hawthorn, North Melbourne, Richmond
Sydney: Fremantle, Geelong, Gold Coast, GWS, Melbourne, Richmond
West Coast: Adelaide, Carlton, Essendon, Fremantle, North Melbourne, Richmond
Western Bulldogs: Fremantle, Geelong, Gold Coast, GWS, Port Adelaide, Richmond
Moore misses pre-season with infection | 00:29
AFL 2023 fixture difficulty (from easiest to hardest)
1. Essendon
2. North Melbourne
3. West Coast Eagles
4. Adelaide
5. Carlton
6. Hawthorn
7. Gold Coast Suns
8. St Kilda
9. GWS Giants
10. Melbourne
11. Richmond
12. Brisbane Lions
13. Port Adelaide
14. Fremantle
15. Geelong Cats
16. Collingwood
17. Western Bulldogs
18. Sydney Swans
Based on the 2022 percentage of the teams they play twice in 2023
Hipwood signs monster 6-year deal | 00:42
WINNERS
Essendon
With one caveat, Brad Scott’s Bombers can celebrate being given the easiest fixture in the league for 2023.
That caveat is Collingwood, who clearly played better than their pedestrian percentage of 104.3% suggests – but they are a massive outlier and historically percentage is the best indicator we have of a team’s quality. That’s why we, and clubs, use it for analysis rather than pure win-loss records.
So while the Bombers do cop two top-six teams twice, including premiers Geelong, the rest of their fixture is manageable. Only three teams finished below them in 2022, and they play all three of them twice (GWS, West Coast and North Melbourne).
If you want to project forwards, and say Collingwood and Port Adelaide will be better than their 2022 percentages in 2023, then maybe this fixture isn’t the easiest. But looking backwards, the numbers say Essendon has the easiest set of double-ups. That’s a win.
Carlton
The Blues have few excuses in 2023, as they try and overcome effectively missing the finals by one point, and this fixture is going to help.
Michael Voss’ men get, in our assessment, the easiest set of double-ups for any of the true finals contenders. After all five of the teams they play twice in 2023 had a worse percentage than them in 2022 – Collingwood (there’s that caveat again), Gold Coast, St Kilda, GWS and West Coast.
Throw in Melbourne, who they came close to beating late in the year, and the Blues should realistically be winning eight or more of their 12 games against this sextet. Then you only need four or five more wins and you’re in September.
Also of note
If St Kilda is any chance of returning to the finals under Ross Lyon, they needed some good fortune – especially after the Max King injury – and this could help.
Typically a side that gets hurt by the fixture (as a smaller Victorian club they seem to get sent interstate more often), the Saints are one of four teams in the AFL that only has to play one top six team twice in 2023 (Brisbane).
They get three middle-six teams – Carlton, Richmond and Gold Coast – who they are directly fighting for those spots in the eight that we know will become available. Those are chances to influence their destiny.
We would also argue Melbourne has a pretty kind set of double-ups, considering they were 10-0 and finished second in the home and away season.
As mentioned near the top of the article, they have a 2-2-2 split across the top-middle-bottom sixes, the same as Hawthorn (who finished 13th). Admittedly their middle six teams are Carlton and Richmond, but it’s still an oddity.
Plus, you can basically bank four wins against Hawthorn and North Melbourne.
St Kilda cop massive blow with King scan | 01:27
LOSERS
Sydney Swans
This is a pretty brutal draw for the Grand Finalists, who face three of their fellow top six teams twice – Geelong, Melbourne and Fremantle.
But that’s about expected. It just doesn’t get much easier from there. They’ve also got Richmond, who we know were more competitive than their ladder position, and Gold Coast who are always a tricky opponent for them (and should keep improving in 2023).
Then round it out with two games against the rival Giants – we can throw in some cliche about ‘well you never know what happens in a rivalry game!’ but the answer should really be two comfortable Swans wins.
Still, would it be a shock if Sydney went 5-5 in 10 games against the Cats, Demons, Dockers, Tigers and Suns? Not to us. And if that does happen, they’d have to go 11-2 against the rest of the league to repeat their 16-win 2022 season.
Western Bulldogs
It’s like someone at AFL HQ really likes the stat about Luke Beveridge never having led the Bulldogs to a top four finish, because jeez one looks hard to nab from here.
Much like with the Swans, the Bulldogs have two winnable games against the Giants, but then a very tricky remaining 10 – against Fremantle, Geelong, Gold Coast, Port Adelaide and Richmond.
The Dogs lost both meetings against the Cats and Dockers last year (including their elimination final loss to the latter), as well as to the Power and Tigers in their sole meetings.
The average percentage of their double-up opponents is 113.42%. For Carlton, who finished one spot below them on the ladder, it’s 96.88%. That’s a HUGE gap for how close those teams were.
Also of note
Most expect Port Adelaide to bounce back in 2023, but this fixture won’t help, with double-ups against four 2022 finalists (Geelong, Collingwood, Richmond and the Western Bulldogs).
On our numbers, the Power have the hardest draw of 2022’s non-finalists.
Briefly we’ll note the Giants have a draw that’s quite a bit tougher than their fellow 2022 bottom-four sides – who have the three easiest sets of double-ups – including two meetings with Sydney, the Bulldogs and a sure-to-improve Carlton.
Not the nicest start to Adam Kingsley’s coaching career.
Recruiting role secures Shiels | 01:11
WHAT HAPPENED IN 2022?
Since this analysis is based on the previous year’s results, it’s never going to be perfectly predictive – if one of your double-up opponents had a terrible 2021 and was great in 2022, you ended up with a harder fixture.
Broadly speaking the teams that were supposed to get the hardest fixtures got them, with only West Coast being surprisingly punished.
Predicted hardest fixtures for 2022
1. Melbourne
2. Essendon
3. Western Bulldogs
4. GWS
5. St Kilda
6. Port Adelaide
(16. West Coast)
Actual hardest fixtures for 2022
1. St Kilda
2. Essendon
3. GWS
4. Western Bulldogs
5. West Coast
6. Port Adelaide
(7. Melbourne)
St Kilda copped Geelong and Brisbane, plus risers Fremantle and Sydney, while West Coast also suffered from Fremantle’s rise, plus Gold Coast being competitive.
At the other end of the spectrum, Grand Finalists Geelong and Sydney had two of the three easiest fixtures in 2022 – only playing one fellow finalist twice.
The Cats got to face Port Adelaide, North Melbourne, St Kilda, West Coast and the Bulldogs twice; the Swans got to face Essendon, GWS, North Melbourne, St Kilda and the Bulldogs twice.
Clearly that isn’t the only reason the two sides made the Grand Final, but it didn’t hurt either.
Carlton was supposed to get the easiest fixture according to our analysis but, with Fremantle and Collingwood rising, ended up with a middle-of-the-pack draw.
