By Nick Berney
Selections based on a soft to good track. Monitor for bias/pattern.
Race 1 – 1:25PM BOWERMANS HANDICAP (1400 METRES)
6. Scientist started a $2.50 favourite on debut at Canterbury 14 days ago and was honest in defeat, running third. The three-year-old was ridden up from a wide-draw to sit outside the leader in a genuine tempo and battled on well in a fast-time race. Further, that race rated highly relative to the day after adjusting for age, class, additional factors, and the decisive margins confirmed the quality. The Gai Waterhouse & Adrian Bott galloper will benefit from the race experience, the step up in trip is ideal, and the bigger track suits. In addition, the tricky draw is of little concern, with a long run to the first turn coming out of the back chute. Expect him to take some catching.
Racing returns to Warwick Farm on Wednesday with a seven-race card.Credit:Getty
Dangers: 10. Avebury was heavily backed $3.50-$2.50 late in the trade last start at Newcastle and was just beaten on the line. She maps to have every possible chance and will look like the winner at some stage in the final straight. 15. Ithadtobezou was 49 days between runs last start and got too far back but still recorded the fastest 400m-200m split of the entire meeting in 11.64 before peaking on her run. She will be fitter for that, and any change of tactics will be critical. 9. Absolute Star, who receives the blinkers for the first time and a significant barrier change, is an improver. 4. Rediener has trialled well enough and expect an aggressive ride with Nash Rawiller booked.
How to play it: Scientist WIN. Odds & Evens: EVENS.
Race 2 – 2:00PM SCHWEPPES HANDICAP (1300 METRES)
Leaning towards 6. Miss Hellfire, who resumed and ran a solid race in the Rosebud (1100m) at Rosehill 18 days ago. The filly was outsprinted, but she hit the line hard once she balanced up. Moreover, she ran one of the fastest final 200m splits of the meeting in 11.64, and Kibou/Sweet Ride have both since come out and won Group races last Saturday. Second-up last prep, she produced her career peak figure on a soft track, and a repeat of that performance will put her in the finish.
Dangers: 5. Twilight Affair led and had all favours when winning at Canterbury last start. However, the mare has a fitness advantage and maps perfectly again. 4. Roots contested group level races last prep and has trialled well. The mare can sprint fresh and has an unbeaten first-up record. Add 1. Kedah to trifectas and first fours.
How to play it: Miss Hellfire WIN. Odds & Evens: SPLIT.
Race 3 – 2:35PM IRISH YEARLING SALES HANDICAP (2400 METRES)
1. Boyszee had the blinkers back on last start at Kensington and won well to run solid time. Further, there was a margin to third to confirm the quality. The gelding is a consistent type proven at the distance, and James McDonald sticks. Expect a bold showing.
Dangers: 2. Decadent Tale comes out of the same race as Boyszee and receives a 2.5kg weight swing. She is a key late market watch. 6. Lord Desanimaux jumped from 1200m-1800m last start at Randwick and ran well in a TAB Highway (1800m). He is reaching optimal fitness and will be running on. 3. Naval Warfare defied the market last start and 8. Pirate Bird has been honest this prep.
How to play it: Boyszee WIN. Odds & Evens: SPLIT.
Race 4 – 3:10PM TAB HANDICAP (1600 METRES)
8. Redwood Shadow was outpaced when the tempo quickened last start at Kensington 21 days ago, but once he got his mind on the job, he closed off strongly. Additionally, the time was solid, and a subsequent winner confirmed the form. The Joe Pride trained galloper’s sectional profile suggests he’s ready to peak fourth-up, Nash Rawiller rides from a soft draw and the key addition of blinkers back on is significant.
Dangers: 4. Just A Jedi, who represents value, raced slightly flat second-up at Randwick in a stronger grade. Prior to that effort, his run was full of merit at this track after being not suited by a moderate tempo and running the fastest final 200m split of the meeting in 12.28. Expect him to bounce back third-up, and he can rate to win. 6. Zou De Moon is in career best form and maps to control the pace and forget 1. Morethannumberone’s Murwillumbah Cup effort where he didn’t handle the track. 3. Estreet sprinted well to score first-up after his gelding operation and 7. Green Flash is ticking over well.
How to play it: Redwood Shadow WIN. Odds & Evens: EVENS.
Race 5 – 3:45PM VINERY STALLIONS HANDICAP (1200 METRES)
6. Insurrection, who was heavily backed $4.0-$3.5 late in the trade first-up at Wyong 15 days ago, raced well and finished second, beating the rest easily to run a career peak figure. The three-year-old had every chance but hit the line hard, running some of the fastest closing splits of the day and recorded a 22.54 for his final 400m. He will be fitter for that effort, the bigger track suits and if he gets luck from the tricky draw, expect him to be in the finish.
Dangers: 7. Sha Of Gomer, who represents value, was well-ridden last start but sprinted hard and was just beaten by a smart type in Northern Beaches. Additionally, that race rated highly relative to the day, and he is ready to peak third-up. 1. Eponymous won well on debut after racing wide throughout and was immediately spelled. He is a key late market watch. 8. Ring Ahoy has been gelded and 4. Atmosphere is an honest on-pacer.
How to play it: Insurrection WIN & Sha Of Gomer WIN. Odds & Evens: SPLIT.
Race 6 – 4:20PM ST MARK’S BASILICA @ COOLMORE HANDICAP (1000 METRES)
1. Nasturtium, who resumes, has been trialling well and won a recent heat at Rosehill in fast time/sectionals. The five-year-old was impressive and consistent last prep, winning three out of his four starts. Moreover, he was on an upwards ratings spiral before failing in his final prep run, which subsequent group 1 winner Mazu won. The Gerald Ryan & Sterling Alexiou training partnership is renowned for having their runners fit and ready to run well first-up. In addition, he has key attributes, will roll forward and will take some catching.
Dangers: 8. Super Bright went out on a career peak figure prior to spelling last prep. She is a nice type and has had two solid hit outs at the trials. Expect her to be savaging the line. 5. Ebhaar needs to improve his racing manners but has the ability. Expect an aggressive ride from the tricky draw and the step back in distance suits. Forgive 3. Lord Paramount’s last start, and he can bounce back with James McDonald riding and an anticipated genuine tempo suit.
How to play it: Nasturtium WIN. Odds & Evens: SPLIT.
Race 7 – 4:55PM VICTOR LUDORUM @ DARLEY HANDICAP (1300 METRES)
9. Capo Strada resumes as a gelding and wasn’t extended, winning a recent heat at Warwick Farm, albeit on the synthetic track. The four-year-old looks to have come back improved, and although he had every chance first-up last prep, there was plenty of merit in the clock. He has strong form lines for this event, Hugh Bowman rides, and multiple winning figures.
Dangers: 3. Conrad was solid last start at Randwick in a high-rating race after adjustments and is back in grade here. Moreover, he maps to have all favours, brings a fitness advantage, and gets in well at the weights after the astute claim for Dylan Gibbons. Lightly raced improver 12. Think About It won last start at Wyong easily and deserves his shot at the metropolitan level. He is a definite chance and will be savaging the line. 6. Kelvedon Road, a real trier, is a knockout chance.
How to play it: Capo Strada WIN. Odds & Evens: ODDS.
Best Bet: Race 6: Nasturtium (1)
Next Best: Race 1: Scientist (6)
Best Value: Race 5: Insurrection (6) & Sha Of Gomer (7)
Supplied by Racing NSW
Full form and race replays available at racingnsw.com.au.
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