DOHA, Qatar — When you’re a four-time World Cup winner, two straight first-round exits is bound to bring gnashing of teeth, pulling of hair and the sort of self-criticism that would have done Chairman Mao proud. That’s what awaits Germany as they travel home.
It’s going to be a bummer of a holiday season, but in these situations, it’s also worth finding some clarity. Identifying those areas of concern that are legitimate and those that come down to luck and happenstance.
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First, as tempting as it might be to bundle the two World Cup nightmares together, they are not the same. Four years ago, Germany were top seeds and faced weaker opposition (Mexico, Sweden and South Korea) in their group. They lost two games and beat Sweden thanks only to an improbable Toni Kroos free kick in the fifth minute of injury time.
This time, they paid a dear price for failing to close out the opener after taking the lead against Japan (losing 2-1), battled top seed Spain to a 1-1 draw and beat Costa Rica in the final group game. Not great, but had it not been for Spain somehow managing to lose to Japan, they would have been through. (Indeed, since teeny tiny margins separate agony and ecstasy in a World Cup: the millimeters by which the ball remained in play when Kaoru Mitoma crossed for Ao Tanaka for Japan’s winning goal are what sent them home.)
As in 2018, Germany actually won the expected goals battle in each of their three group games, except this time they did so by a massive margin (plus-4.92, compared with plus-2.61 in Russia). So let’s be clear: Germany were not terrible; they did enough to advance under normal circumstances (Japan beating Spain is not normal circumstances); and they did not get the breaks.
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That said, Hansi Flick and the players are not without blame. Far from it. Manuel Neuer might still be one of the best goalkeepers in the world, but he certainly did not play like it in Qatar. At a minimum, he deserves to share the blame with Nico Schlotterbeck for that goal conceded against Japan, while the less said about his performance against Costa Rica, the better. Up front, the gaudy xG numbers do you no good if you don’t finish properly, and there has to be an element of collective blame to that.
As for Flick, as I see it, there are valid criticisms and less valid ones. Let’s start with the latter.
Flick’s game management also left a lot to be desired, in the second half against Japan and in the match against Spain. He didn’t make the right adjustments when Japan made changes after the break, and the vibe in that second half was way too loose and careless. Against Spain, it felt as if Germany gave the opposition a little too much respect, as if the benefits of a win were outweighed by the damage of a loss. It was probably the calculation that a draw was just fine, since Germany would beat Costa Rica in the final game and there was no way Japan was going to defeat Spain… a calculation that, as we saw, proved to be entirely incorrect.
Germany’s reaction after going a goal down against Spain saw them play arguably their best football at the World Cup. With hindsight — which is always 20-20, of course — that ought to have been the blueprint.
So what’s next? Flick might or might not stick around, and it might not be his choice anyway. The likes of Gundogan, Antonio Rudiger and Muller probably won’t make it to the next cycle, but others will emerge. And there’s still plenty to come from Joshua Kimmich, Leroy Sane, Serge Gnabry and, of course, Musiala. If they can unlock the hypertalented enigma that is Havertz — they’ll need help from Chelsea on that one — then the foundation will be there for another run as early as the next Euros in 2024, where they’ll be the host nation.
Four years ago was a low point. This time, it’s more a case of tweaking and learning from your mistakes, especially in terms of game management and knowing when to be confident and when to be humble. Germany will be just fine.
