AFL 360 host Gerard Whateley believes the pre-finals bye has created a disadvantage for qualifying final winners, in a strong argument against the break before September.
Since 2016, a bye week has been held in-between the final home and away round and the first week of finals. Famously in that year the Western Bulldogs gained multiple stars back from injury because of the bye and won four consecutive finals to claim the flag from seventh.
But the real problem is in how a traditional advantage, given to the top four sides that win their qualifying finals, appears to now hurt them.
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Before the pre-finals bye was introduced, we had never seen both qualifying final winners go onto lose their home preliminary final. Since then, it has happened twice.
“In the scientific experiment, if you change one parameter and it radically effects your result, you at least have to acknowledge that that’s happened,” Whateley said on Fox Footy.
IMPACT OF THE PRE-FINALS BYE (On qualifying final winners)
2000-15: Both win their prelim 75% of the time; both lose their prelim 0% of the time
2016-20: Both win their prelim 20% of the time; both lose their prelim 40% of the time
In 2016, after winning qualifying finals Geelong was well-beaten by Sydney and GWS was pipped by the Western Bulldogs. Then in 2020 Brisbane lost to Geelong and Port Adelaide narrowly fell to Richmond, both as preliminary final hosts.
Since the bye’s introduction, only in 2017 – when Adelaide and Richmond comfortably won their home prelims in front of huge, partisan crowds – did the two qualifying final winners make the Grand Final.
“Historically it was the biggest advantage you could get. The only way to earn a breather was to win a breather,” Whateley said.
“You can balance that up however you like. If you want the bottom four teams to have a better chance, all power to you.
“But what it does, it materially diminishes the advantage that qualifying finalists would win in the hardest-earned way. The only way to get a breather was to win that qualifying final and then it’d set you up from there.”
Adding to that, the team that wins the 1st vs 4th qualifying final has lost its home preliminary final in five of the last seven seasons.
In the last three seasons teams that finished 3rd (twice), 4th, 5th and 6th have all made the Grand Final, with only one top-two finisher (Melbourne last year) making it.
Whateley suggested the fact qualifying final winners end up playing one game in around 27 days is part of the problem.
“It was brought in to protect the integrity of Round 23, but it compromises the actual stuff,” he said.
This year Geelong faces Collingwood and Melbourne battles Sydney in the two qualifying finals.
AFL CEO Gillon McLachlan has long been a backer of the pre-finals bye and again defended it on Monday.
“Since we’ve done it, the top-four teams have won every time except once. The fact that a team could win outside the top four, if that’s what is generated, that’s a good thing,” he said on Monday.
“I know that it’s still better to finish top four than bottom four.
“We’re able to set up a lot of things – we had an incredible opening to AFLW on the weekend.
“In terms of a lack of momentum, which is an argument … people are building, talking – it actually generates momentum. I think it’s actually been a good thing.
“We have good squads – football is better for it, because people are rested. The only argument I can hear – apart from that no one likes change and they want to bleat about stuff – is maybe the concept of the advantage of being a top-four is less than what it was. But if it means that one team can get up in that period and win, I think it’s a good thing.”
Whateley and co-host Mark Robinson agreed there may be a financial incentive for the AFL to keep the pre-finals bye in place.
“It certainly helps with ticket sales, there’s no doubt about that,” Whateley said.
“We have a sellout in Brisbane, a sellout in Perth, a sellout at the MCG. And I suspect one of the core reasons is it just makes that process much easier. That’s what gets people through the gates.”
Or as Robinson simply put it: “Cash.”
