Gerald Ryan knows where Cisco Bay and Steely stand heading into their assignments on Saturday, but with the right results at Rosehill and the pair can earn spots in next month’s The Ingham.
Cisco Bay sits on the limit handicap of 53kg for the Festival Stakes, while Steely also takes a significant weight advantage into the ATC Cup as he steps to 2000m for the first time on back of a series of outstanding placings.
Gerald Ryan believes Steely gets his chance to convert good form into a win in the ATC Cup. Credit:Getty
“It’s whether they are good enough to take that next step up. They are horses that have been very good to a certain level, but they’re in the right form to be very competitive on the weekend,” Ryan said.
“This is the right time of year for them and gives them the chance to win a good race the way they are going. But they are on the limit for a reason and have to step up to run for $2 million in a fortnight [in The Ingham].”
Steely comes out of the Little Dance, where he was only length from Dream Runner in third, after which jockey Josh Parr suggested that he would benefit being tried over a trip longer than the mile. He then ran into the promising Nugget at Kembla Grange last week with backing up into the ATC Cup in mind.
“When Josh got off him at Randwick he said he would win at 2000m, and I knew this race was here for him in a month’s time,” Ryan said. “I didn’t want to go three and a half weeks into it, so we went to Kembla and unfortunately ran into a group horse.
“He is going super, this bloke, and if he runs well on Saturday there would be no reason not to drop back to the Villiers [now The Ingham], but he might just be better over this trip.
“If that is so, there are plenty of options for him in the next couple of weeks, including the Christmas and Summer cups.
“He is going terrific, and I think Nugget and him would have run top three in The Gong on what they did last week. He has won twice at 1800m, so I’m not worried about the 2000m and from the soft draw he should get a good run.
“He also has no weight, which is a big change for a little horse. He has carried 59 and 60 [kilos] at his past two, so 53 kilos is a big advantage for him.”
Punters agree with Ryan’s assessment and have backed Steely from $7 into a $3.90 favourite to convert his placings into the ninth victory of his career at Rosehill.
Similarly, Big Dance runner-up Cisco Bay has been performing well without getting that big victory, but he will get his chance from a soft draw in the Festival Stakes.
Like Steely, the early part of his preparation was focused on the Big Dance, where he was the runner-up, but he has been freshened to be given a chance at getting into The Ingham.
“I’m about his fifth trainer, but I don’t think he has gone better than he is now,” Ryan said. “He is a horse that everyone had down as a wet-tracker, but you look at his rating profile and his best runs are on good tracks.
“He won the Wildcard on the soft to get into the Big Dance, and then he was really good in the Big Dance.
“Someone said to me he would have won if it was a little further; I don’t think so because his style is to have a short sprint and then flatten out. The other horse [Rustic Steel] was holding him on the line.
“I think the Rosehill 1500m is perfect for him because he will be able to be closer from the good draw. He wins his races by using that 250m sprint and then is strong enough to hold off challengers.
“He is such an honest horse that he wins the races he is there to win, and that looks like it could happen on Saturday.”
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