European nations have won the last four World Cups, so why are Brazil and Argentina considered the top two favorites to win the strange winter tournament starting on Sunday in Qatar?
For starters, we have been seduced by the mouth-watering array of attacking talent at Brazil’s disposal, led by Neymar, Vinicius Junior, Raphinha, Richarlison, Gabriel Martinelli and Gabriel Jesus. Brazil are not only capable of ripping up defences but, in World Cup qualification, are also excellent at keeping the ball out of their own net. However, they have not faced a European team since Belgium knocked them out of the 2018 World Cup in Russia in the quarterfinals. That leaves a question mark.
Argentina go into the tournament on a 35-game unbeaten run and, under coach Lionel Scaloni, believe they can deliver an emotional last hurrah for captain Lionel Messi, who said he’s playing his last World Cup. (Though you would not rule him out returning in 2026 when he’ll be 39.) Argentina’s confidence was buoyed by beating Brazil at Rio de Janeiro’s famed Maracana stadium to win the 2021 Copa America. This is a strong, relaxed and unified squad that has the capacity to win the whole thing.
My reservation is that winning their group against Mexico, Poland and Saudi Arabia could lead the Argentinians into a dangerous Round of 16 game against Denmark, who made the 2020 Euro semifinals even after the trauma and near tragedy of Christian Eriksen. The Danes are lively outsiders.
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Defending champions France, despite reported divisions in the camp and a troublesome muscle injury to Ballon d’Or winner Karim Benzema, are still overloaded with talent, even with Paul Pogba, N’Golo Kante and Christopher Nkunku ruled out by knocks. Expect young superstar Kylian Mbappe to light up the occasion with his outrageous pace and goals, as he did four years ago as a teenager.
But you can never be quite sure what you will get from France. Remember what happened the last time they were defending the title in 2002 — a group stage exit — and the infamous 2010 player mutiny in South Africa. They are potential winners, but just as likely to crash and burn as they did at Euro 2020 when they lost on penalties to Switzerland.
