There are eight teams left with a shot at the AFL flag – but eight very different stories heading into the finals.
Many come in with high expectations after yet another successful season, while others could make their fans proud with just a win or two.
We’ve ranked the eight finalists in order in our finals pressure gauge, and given them a pass mark that would mark September as a success.
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1. GEELONG CATS
Pass mark: Win the flag
The Cats are in the best possible position to break their 10-year premiership drought and head into the finals as flag favourites after finishing the year as minor premiers.
But Geelong are under immense pressure to perform, given they’ve made finals in nine of the past 10 years and don’t have a premiership to show for it.
Remarkably, the Cats have missed finals just once under coach Chris Scott, and finished outside the eight just twice in 17 years.
In the past six years, the Cats have made it to the final four five times – but couldn’t get across the line for the premiership.
With their ageing list reaching a tipping point, and stars like Tom Hawkins and Joel Selwood nearing the end, it’s now or never for this generation at least.
The one thing easing the pressure slightly is the emergence of young guns like Sam de Koning and Max Holmes. Combine that with a looming trade raid for GWS midfielder Jacob Hopper, and it’s not as if the Cats are going to fall off a cliff next year.
But their 2022 season has been the envy of 17 other clubs, turning delisted free agent Tyson Stengle into an All-Australian and with the Jeremy Cameron trade looking better and better by the month. Almost nothing has gone wrong this season.
Other than 2019, when they came closest to knocking off Richmond in a prelim (that was the game they had Lachie Henderson at full-forward due to Hawkins’ suspension), this is the best the Cats have been since the 2011 premiership. If they don’t win one now, when will they?
2. BRISBANE LIONS
Pass mark: Make a preliminary final
The Lions may have locked in a home elimination final at a ground where they’ve won 37 of their past 41 matches, but come finals Brisbane haven’t got the job done.
Three top four finishes in the past three years – including two top two spots – haven’t brought the Lions to their first grand final since the 2004 loss to Port Adelaide.
For all their home and away dominance, the Lions have registered just one win at the Gabba in finals – the 2020 qualifying final against Richmond.
While we’ve said the Cats are under the most pressure, because they’re in a better position to win the flag, the Lions are facing a failure to meet expectations yet again.
“In terms of big weeks week one of the finals, it’s the biggest week for Brisbane,” Power champion Kane Cornes said on the Sunday Footy Show.
“With their finals record, the way this year’s panned out, the drama with Dayne Zorko last week, their performance against Melbourne – so I think they are the team under the most pressure this finals series.”
Essendon great Matthew Lloyd says Brisbane showed they don’t handle physical pressure, given the loss to Richmond during the season and last week’s dismal effort against Melbourne.
“They are really vulnerable for me the Brisbane Lions even though they are going in as the higher seed,” he said.
“I’m expecting Richmond to bring the heat, just like Melbourne did last week.
“Brisbane did not handle the pressure of Melbourne last week.”
Beating an in-form Tigers side would be a very good win, and ease some of the pressure. But another semi-final exit is not acceptable for a group with this much talent – even if that semi-final would be against Melbourne or Sydney. They must make a prelim, at least.
3. MELBOURNE
Pass mark: Make the Grand Final
About halfway through the season the only question was how much Melbourne would win the Grand Final by.
They’re still well-positioned to make it, hosting a qualifying final and with strong favouritism looming if they win and host a prelim, but it’s nowhere near a sure thing.
And a loss to Sydney next Friday night could see them needing to beat Geelong just to make the flag decider – a game we’ve been talking about since the last Grand Final, with the Demons desperate to win one in front of their home fans.
Their fixture since Round 11 has been very difficult, with nine games against fellow members of the top eight, but having lost six of them any sense of invincibility that surrounded this group when they were 10-0 is gone.
Going out in straight sets would be an unthinkable sporting disaster, especially because every one of the Demons’ finals will be at the MCG – either as the home team, or as the away team in a preliminary final against Geelong or Collingwood.
And so Melbourne losing an MCG preliminary final, after all of the expectations and with their inarguable talent, would be a failure as well.
You can lose on the last day of September – anything can happen in one game, and we’ve seen plenty of teams that should’ve won the Grand Final lose it. But if they don’t get there, it’s a lost season.
4. RICHMOND
Pass mark: Make a preliminary final
There’s a big gap between third and fourth in these rankings, but father time forces Richmond above the rest – because is this it?
Coming into this year the hope at Tigerland was they could recover the form they shockingly lost in 2021 and return to contention, before the superstars who led them to three flags hang up the boots or simply depart.
They did just that, but they dropped a few games they shouldn’t have – both at the start of the season, and some tight ones later in the year – and it means the Tigers are going to have to win a flag from seventh.
If any team can do it, it’s them, and the Bulldogs in 2016 proved it’s possible.
But the path will be bloody tough. Brisbane away, despite the Lions-Demons game just over a week ago, is one of the trickiest tasks in footy – and remember Richmond lost their first-week final there in 2020.
Then it’d be either Melbourne or Sydney in a semi-final, potentially on the road at the SCG, and either flag favourites Geelong or team of destiny Collingwood in a massive preliminary final. And then of course the Grand Final itself.
The Tigers are good enough to win each of those games but winning all of them will be very tricky – you’re arguably looking at four straight 50-50s. Try flipping a coin right now to see if you get heads four times in a row.
So while it’s understandable if they don’t make a preliminary final from 7th, they are talented enough to get there – and they may not be this talented again for a while.
5. WESTERN BULLDOGS
Pass mark: Make a semi-final and be competitive in it
If you’re judging the Bulldogs on what they’ve actually done this year, making a semi-final – which means beating a damn good Fremantle team on the road – would be a success.
But we can’t just judge these Bulldogs on this year, because we know they’re more talented than falling into eighth thanks to Carlton’s last-gasp collapse.
Last year’s Grand Finalists are way too talented to fail to win a final, especially through the midfield and up forward.
It’s in defence where they’re unacceptably bad. The personnel, despite coach Luke Beveridge’s constant backing of his men, is not ideal.
But it’s tactically where the real questions will come. No team is easier to transition against from the defensive 50 than the Bulldogs – even Essendon is better – and that’s a team defence problem, not just the back six.
The 2016 and 2021 campaigns have understandably given Beveridge a lot of leeway. But while the highs have been high throughout his stint, the lows have been much too low.
If he is the coach we think he is, he should be able to fix their issues.
6. SYDNEY SWANS
Pass mark: Make a preliminary final
The Swans have quietly crept their way through a successful 2022 season, but their top four finish has showed they are a real threat come September.
Lance Franklin dominated the early airtime with his remarkable 1000-goal feat, but since then Sydney has built a brilliant campaign, their September starting with a qualifying final against Melbourne.
While having to play away from the slightly smaller SCG means they aren’t starting the match as favourites, Fox Footy’s Nathan Buckley warned the Swans shouldn’t be taken lightly.
“They are not fearful of the MCG,” Buckley said on SEN.
“It makes a lot of sense when you actually look at it with the makeup of their squad and their work rate. They’ve played some great football on bigger grounds.
“John Longmire has done that as a coach with squads before. You can see that this team is built in the moulds of really good Sydney teams of the past, and they do it on work rate. All the way up, all the way back, good in the air, good in the contest.”
The Swans will enter the finals series on the back of a seven-game winning streak – the biggest of those coming away from home in Perth against Fremantle.
Longmire was clearly animated in post-match scenes when the jubilant coach hugged players and praised their ability to stand tall when the pressure came.
This year could be Franklin’s final chance to bring the Swans success, after his big money deal comes to an end this season.
But the emergence of their young talent, players like Chad Warner, Nick Blakey and Isaac Heeney means this isn’t the end for the Swans if 2022 is not to be their year.
And that’s a dangerous prospect for the competition.
7. FREMANTLE
Pass mark: At least make a semi-final
The Dockers were a wildcard in 2022, with their great start to the season crashing down over their inability to win in the wet.
Back-to-back losses in the rain to Gold Coast and Collingwood saw some start to question Fremantle’s finals credentials while late injuries to a host of key players has slowed their charge.
The Dockers, while still a top four possibility right up until that final match of the round, finished in fifth – and that is probably an accurate representation of where they sit.
A young squad with plenty to gain by playing finals, many expect this is not Fremantle’s year – but the experience can do them no harm.
AFLPA MVP Andy Brayshaw has found another gear in 2022 to really lead the Dockers in Nat Fyfe’s absence, while the backline has shown it has the depth to cover the top sides.
The Dockers are still a finals smoky given they have beaten the two top already this season – Geelong in Geelong and Melbourne at the MCG.
Fox Footy’s Nathan Buckley said he had no doubt the Dockers had “exceeded expectations” in 2022, but wasn’t confident they’d go far in finals.
“I thought they were brilliant in the first half of the year (but) that’s flipped and it nearly flipped on its head. They’re a very different side towards the end of the year than they were at the beginning,” he said on SEN.
“They’ve got some personnel problems heading into finals.”
Losing to the Western Bulldogs in a home elimination final as favourites would leave a very sour taste in their mouths – very similar to how Sydney, after their surprising 2021 surge, lost to GWS in last year’s elimination final.
But just like the Swans have climbed even higher in 2022, the Dockers are every chance to keep rising in 2023, so it’s not all about success this season. Though they’d love to find some for David Mundy.
8. COLLINGWOOD
Pass mark: Already passed… but if we have to set one, win a final
The Magpies are the 2022 fairytale, going from a lowly 17th last year to a top four finish under new coach Craig McRae.
Their remarkable will to win has seen them grab hold of a double chance this finals series, and they loom as a dangerous opponent in September.
Collingwood stunned the competition with their incredible 11-game winning streak – and finished by winning 10 of their final 11 games by less than two goals.
The Magpies have blown away the expectations for their season, so whatever happens from here is a bonus for the club and their fans.
They’ve gained a new legion of fans, simply by their exciting game style and never-give-up attitude.
“It’s their DNA, it’s ‘we won’t give up, we’ll continue to attack’,” Fox Footy’s Garry Lyon praised on On the Couch.
“We know they’ll keep coming.”
Nick Riewoldt said any side coming up against the Pies in the finals would need to be switched on until the final siren.
“Collingwood are at their most dangerous when they have nothing to lose,” he praised.
Jonathan Brown was full of praise for the work of new coach McRae – a former teammate and three-time Brisbane premiership player.
“His central part of his game was pressure and effort … and it feels the Collingwood players have taken on his personality,” he said.
They only need to win one of their first two finals to make a prelim, which would be an enormous accomplishment.
A straight-sets exit would be disappointing though given how much joy this Magpies group has given the black and white army already through arguably the most exciting home and away season ever played, it wouldn’t be a disaster.
