Wests Tigers fans hoping their fortunes are about to turn around under Tim Sheens and Benji Marshall might want to stop reading now.
The 2023 NRL draw has been revealed, making the picture for next season’s premiership race clearer. To help — and for a bit of off-season fun — Fox Sports Lab has pulled together a predicted ladder, based on the draw and last year’s results.
There’s a big asterix here — the ladder, based on simulating the season 10,000 times and factoring in teams’ record at certain venues in 2022 — doesn’t take into account team changes, of which the Tigers have plenty with their new coaching team and incoming stars including Isaiah Papali’i and Api Koroisau.
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But based on the data available, it could be another lean year for the Tigers, who are rated just a 7.52% chance of making the finals, and a 0.11% chance of winning the minor premiership.
Another key caveat is the fact the Dolphins are not included in the analysis because there is obviously no historical data available ahead of their inaugural season.
Unsurprisingly, reigning premiers Penrith dominated the computer-generated analysis. Ivan Cleary’s team is rated a 18.17% chance of winning another minor premiership and a virtual lock for the top 8 at 83.97%.
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The rising North Queensland Cowboys were rated second with Melbourne and South Sydney rounding out the Top 4.
Cronulla were the surprise packet of last season and many felt Craig Fitzgibbon’s side benefited from a favourable draw. This year they are predicted to slip from second to seventh.
Kevin Walters’ Broncos faded late in the 2022 season and it could be another year with their draw rated the toughest of any team. They came out 10th in projections, rated only a 22.74% chance of making the finals.
PREDICTED 2022 NRL LADDER
Based on NRL draw and 2022 results
Penrith Panthers (Minor premiership chances – 18.17%)
North Queensland Cowboys (14.24%)
Melbourne Storm (13.53%)
South Sydney Rabbitohs (12.48%)
Sydney Roosters (10.05%)
Parramatta Eels (9.56%)
Cronulla Sharks (8.36%)
Canberra Raiders (7.43%)
St George-Illawarra Dragons (1.32%)
Brisbane Broncos (0.64%)
Manly Sea Eagles (0.55%)
Gold Coast Titans (0.42%)
Newcastle Knights (0.21%)
Canterbury-Bankstown Bulldogs (0.08%)
Warriors (0.19%)
Wests Tigers (0.11%)
* The Dolphins were not included because there is no historical results data
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