The Canberra Raiders will follow a green brick road towards the NRL finals while the Brisbane Broncos face an uphill climb to end their September exile.
Ricky Stuart’s Raiders will play just eight games against members of this year’s top eight, emerging as the big winners after the NRL’s 2023 fixture was published on Thursday morning.
But the Broncos find themselves at the other end of the spectrum, with 14 games against clubs who featured in the most recent finals series.
The Herald has assigned each team a ranking based on when they finished in 2022. The minor premiership-winning Penrith Panthers — who will chase a third consecutive grand final win next year — have been given the biggest difficulty factor of 17. The Wests Tigers finished with the wooden spoon and have been given a difficulty factor of two, while the Dolphins have been assigned one point ahead of their first season in the NRL.
The Raiders recorded a difficulty score of 192, the only club to record a figure below 200. The Cronulla Sharks and North Queensland Cowboys have a golden chance to back up their top four appearances, having recorded two of the four lowest difficulty factor scores.
Canberra charged into the top eight and beat Melbourne behind enemy lines on the back of a stunning turnaround this year, but their premiership hopes went up in smoke when they were hammered by eventual grand finalists Parramatta in week two of the finals.
Brisbane and Manly are at the bottom of the rankings, recording scores of 230 and 227 respectively.
Such a verdict is reached with an imperfect science. New signings, home and away games, and the prospect of taking on teams weakened during the State of Origin period are not factored in.
