It all comes down to this.
After 19 races, four changes to the championship lead and an unprecedented fightback, just Francesco Bagnaia and Fabio Quartararo remain in contention for the 2022 MotoGP title with one race remaining.
Either winner will write an improbable chapter in motorcycling history.
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That Bagnaia is the short-priced favourite to claim the championship is remarkable given he was a whopping 91 points down on Quartararo just nine races ago. No rider has ever recovered from such a significant margin. To lead the Frenchman by 23 points — a 114-point turnaround — with a round to spare would have been considered laughable only a few months ago.
And if Quartararo wins, he’ll have ground out the most unlikely of title defences on a bike simply not up to the task. Fabio arrives at the final race with limited hope of regaining the title lead, but if the stars were to align for him, overturning a 23-point deficit in a single race would be a noteworthy achievement indeed.
But the title leaders aren’t the only ones with business to finalise this weekend. There’s a considerable fight for third in the standings more meaningful than just the minor placing alone, there are farewells to be had, and the intermediate class has its own title fight to decide.
THE DECIDER
Bagnaia leads Quartararo by 23 points, just two shy of an outright race victory, meaning the title permutations are clear.
If Quartararo is to claim the championship, he must win the race with Bagnaia 15th or lower — effectively he needs the Italian not to score.
Bagnaia can guarantee himself the championship by scoring two points or more, by finishing 14th or higher, regardless of what Quartararo does.
Finishing equal on points wouldn’t be enough for the Frenchman, who would lose the title on countback thanks to Bagnaia’s seven victories.
The odds of Quartararo winning the race and Bagnaia not scoring are slim.
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We’ll know as early as Saturday whether Quartararo is likely to challenge for victory. The Yamaha’s problems circulating in the pack are well known, with its lack of power making overtaking difficult and its front tyre pressure issues harming even its usual strength of corner performance.
If he qualifies off the front two rows, it’s extremely difficult to imagine him being able to make up enough ground to put himself in a winning position.
But even if he were to take the lead, he’ll then need to hope Bagnaia doesn’t finish the race.
It’s tempting to lean on Bagnaia’s reputation as being crash prone as a reason for optimism, but since the mid-season break Quartararo has crashed three times and failed to score in one other race. Bagnaia has crashed just once.
It would take a major reversal of form for Quartararo to leave Valencia with a second championship.
But it’s not over until it’s over.
THE BATTLE FOR THIRD GOES DOWN TO THE WIRE
Aleix Espargaró, having been Quartararo’s closest challenger for most of the year, is the incumbent in third but holds the place by a single point ahead of standout sophomore Enea Bastianini.
Australian Jack Miller is a more distant chance after being punted out of the Australian Grand Prix and trails this battle by 23 points.
Quite aside from the bonus each would be in line for, each has a distinct and important motivation to be third in the final reckoning.
Aleix Espargaró to end his unlikely championship charge
Espargaró and Aprilia will want this barest consolation after their collapsed campaign.
“I’m proud of everyone in Aprilia — of myself, of the team, of all those in Noale,” Espargaró said after falling out of contention. “What we’ve done this year will still go down in history.”
But to his eulogy he also added a warning of sorts.
“The way we’re finishing this season is a bit sad,” he said. “If we had maintained out usual level in the last four races, we would’ve arrived in Valencia with the chance to fight for the title, but we’re losing without explanation.”
Aprilia’s downturn in form since the Japanese Grand Prix just as Quartararo left the goal wide open has been mystifying, but the team is hopeful that it’s not a bike problem so much as it is an experience gap — MotoGP hadn’t visited any of the four Asian race venues in three years, which is practically a different era considering Aprilia’s progress this season.
If it can bounce back this weekend at the well-known Circuit Ricardo Tormo, it will significantly dull any concerns that this strong year has been a flash in the pan. But if it’s off the pace again, there’ll be worries that it might not be able to consolidate on its otherwise outstanding season next year.
A strong result would also almost certainly seal second in the manufacturers championship, a position it currently holds by five points ahead of Yamaha.
Enea Bastianini to make a statement before his Ducati switch
Bastianini will be determined to snatch third place to continue his mighty assent into the upper echelons of the sport.
The 2020 Moto2 champion started the season with his maiden premier-class victory and added two more wins in the first seven rounds, but when he wasn’t winning he was buried in the points or skidding through the gravel. He could’ve been a title challenger with more consistency — remarkable given he’s on a year-old bike racing for Ducati’s second-tier satellite team.
Now championship position doesn’t matter as much as making a statement ahead of his move to the factory team alongside Bagnaia in 2023.
He’s not heading there with the intention of playing second fiddle to the presumptive reigning champion.
Bastianini is a hard-nosed racer, but his battles with Bagnaia have been particularly fiery, especially given his compatriot’s status as Ducati’s best title hope. Some gentle public criticism from Ducati management has done little to dial down his aggression.
He’s already likely to finish ahead of Miller in the standings, and finishing third and just two positions behind his future teammate — and potentially winning Bagnaia’s coronation race — would be a considerable statement of intent to disrupt the established order in Bologna.
“If I win, it’s not a problem for all the riders,” he said, per Crash, noting that preventing Quartararo from winning would guarantee Bagnaia the title. “But Pecco is really competitive here and can try to win again.
“I’m always focused on my job. We worked a lot with the team to be competitive always and do the maximum on Sunday.
“The target is to try to win.”
Victory would also boost Gresini in its fight to keep hold of sixth in the team standings, which would be its highest finish since 2014. It leads Suzuki by just nine points.
Jack Miller to cap off his Ducati career with his best-ever season
Miller has never had a better MotoGP season than 2022, and he has a slim chance at formalising his career high with a best-ever championship finish.
His tally of 189 point is the most he’s ever collected. He’s never taken home more than the seven podium trophies he’s claimed this season. He’s also equalled his lowest non-score count, with just three DNFs and one finish outside the top 15.
The only thing missing is the overall championship position.
Last year he finished a career-best fourth. This year he’s languishing in fifth, which can be traced back to the Phillip Island crash that put him out of the championship race.
“It is not easy, but until the end we will work to try to reach this important goal together,” Miller said of his shot at snatching what would be an unprecedented third place.
But there’s more meaning in the potential finish than just the position alone. This is Miller’s final race in an up-and-down two-year stint with the factory Ducati team, and he’s determined to end on a high note.
His sparkling form since taking his career into his own hands has already guaranteed a memorable final stint in red leathers, highlighted by his career-best ride to dominate the Japanese Grand Prix, but a final podium would be a fitting result.
Considering KTM’s unpredictable performances, this could also be his last chance to see the podium and possibly a victory in many months.
SUZUKI’S LAST DANCE
For all the ups and downs of the season, nothing has come close to the drama of Suzuki’s sudden decision early this year to withdraw from the sport, leaving riders Joan Mir and Álex Rins and the entire factory staff in the lurch with mere months remaining in the campaign.
Both riders have raced for Suzuki since their MotoGP debuts, making this a particularly poignant weekend for them.
It’s incredible to remember that Suzuki was leading the teams standings and was second on the manufacturers table at the time the decision was made shortly after the Spanish Grand Prix.
What followed was a long run of underperformance as the racing team came to terms with what was suddenly a very uncertain future, turning a promising start to the year into a disappointing crash-prone and injury-riddled campaign of minimum satisfaction.
But the team enjoyed a brief reprieve at Phillip Island, where Rins pulled off a perfectly judged victory, the marque’s first in two years, and the Spaniard backed that up with a decent fifth in Malaysia, Suzuki’s highest finish since June, his win excluded.
“It’s going to be a strange and sad weekend, but I’m determined to have a good one,” Rins said. “My team have given me everything over the years, and I’ll give my all to pay them back with a good result one last time.”
Rins has a strong record in Valencia, with a couple of second-place finishes to his name and having never taken the flag lower than fifth.
Joan Mir’s record is less favourable, though his victory at the European Grand Prix and seventh at the Valencia Grand Prix in 2020 — both at the same circuit — combined to win him his maiden championship and Suzuki the teams title.
“I want to put everything together for this final round for me and for my squad,” Mir said. “I can be fast here and my bike can be too, but we just need a little bit of luck on our side to tie it all together.
“All I want now is to have a trouble-free weekend so I can bring this chapter to a close with my fantastic team and enjoy the final race.”
TWO ROOKIES IN THEIR LAST MOTOGP RIDES — FOR NOW
Remy Gardner will be the only premier-class rider farewelling the tour at the end of the race, with the Aussie switching to the Superbike World Championship next year after being unceremoniously cut loose by Tech3 KTM.
He’s left the door open to a MotoGP return but has admitted it’s difficult to imagine circumstances in which he could switch back.
Gardner is 23rd in the standings but tied on points with RNF’s Cal Crutchlow and, more importantly, teammate Raúl Fernandez, both behind him on countback.
Fernandez has been able to carry over some of his Moto2 hype into a contract for next season despite Gardner having his measure all year. Ensuring he stays ahead of that battle would at least be a small moral victory for the Aussie to go out on.
Darryn Binder will also leave MotoGP, but he’ll be stepping down to Moto2, having skipped the intermediate class this year.
The South African wants to have another crack at the premier class, having returned some decent results this year on a tricky bike. A good run in Moto2 will surely see him get that chance.
THE MOTO2 TITLE IS STILL TO BE DECIDED
The Moto2 riders championship is to be decided this weekend, with MotoGP-bound Augusto Fernández leading Ai Ogura by just 9.5 points after both riders recorded a retirement apiece in the last two rounds.
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Ogura was less than a lap away from taking a 12.5-point advantage into the final race before botching a pass for the lead and crashing out of the Malaysian Grand Prix on the final tour. Victory would’ve seen him take a 17.5-point advantage to Valencia.
Fernández is guaranteed the title if he finishes on the podium or if Ogura finishes seventh or lower.
To win the championship, Ogura must finish:
– first with Fernández fourth or lower;
– second with Fernández sixth or lower;
– third with Fernández 10th or lower;
– fourth with Fernández 13th or lower;
– fifth with Fernández 15th or lower; or
– sixth with Fernandez out of the points.
