8. Benfica Title odds, per FiveThirtyEight’s SPI: 3%Title odds, per Caesars Sportsbook: +5000 (implied odds: 2%)
Best characteristic in group play: Relentless positivity
Last seen leading a swashbuckling PSV Eindhoven team to the Europa League quarterfinals and a near title in the Eredivisie, Roger Schmidt took over a Benfica team suddenly looking for an identity in a much more technical and attack-unfriendly league.
Thus far, it has worked out beautifully. Not only are Benfica unbeaten and distancing themselves in the league race but they were also PSG’s equal in group play, drawing with the French giants twice, matching from an xG perspective and winning Group H on tiebreakers. They ranked fourth in xG per shot and fifth in percentage of shots worth 0.3 xG or more. They attempted far more solo and transition possessions than most of the other top teams here, and, more generally, they just tried stuff . A lot of it worked.
We’ll find out about their staying power in the spring, but they took the fight to both PSG and Juventus and looked great doing so.
Red flag: Protagonists usually don’t win
Solo trips and too many transition attempts can catch up to you eventually, especially if you aren’t Manchester City or Bayern from an overall talent perspective. Typically, underdogs have to play a more reactive style to advance beyond a certain level of the competition. Benfica and Napoli were maybe the two most exciting and enlightening teams to follow in group play, but the journey’s just beginning, and we’ll see how long they can keep up. The longer, the better.
7. Chelsea Title odds, per FiveThirtyEight’s SPI: 4%Title odds, per Caesars Sportsbook: +1400 (implied odds: 7%)
Best characteristic in group play: Stinginess
You have to respect the old-school Chelsea-ness of it all. You might be banged up and constantly in need of tinkered lineups. You might have already driven your old manager out and brought in a new one (Graham Potter). You might still be trying to find your footing under new ownership. But if your opponents can’t score, you can’t lose.
After the initial loss to Dinamo Zagreb, Chelsea allowed three goals in five matches to clinch advancement. Heading into the final matchday, they ranked first in shots allowed per possession (0.08) and seventh in xG allowed per shot (0.09). There were at least two defenders between shot and goal for 89% of opponents’ attempts (second), and no team allowed fewer shots from transition possessions. This was nearly Mourinho-era stinginess.
Red flag: Opponents were nearly as stingy
As solid as they were in defense, they were equally inconsistent in attack. Through five matches, they ranked 15th in shots per possession (0.15) and 23rd in xG per shot (0.10), with only 6% of their shots generating 0.3 xG or more (21st). They picked up the pace as the competition went on, scoring five goals in two matches against AC Milan, but they have battled similar inconsistency in Premier League play. Potter has a bit more time to experiment and find his optimal lineup, but doing so is a necessity.
6. Liverpool Title odds, per FiveThirtyEight’s SPI: 7%Title odds, per Caesars Sportsbook: +800 (implied odds: 11%)
Best characteristic in group play: They dominated transition
Set pieces, too. Liverpool scored seven goals in transition possessions (no one else scored more than five) and allowed just one. They also scored a tournament-best six set-piece goals from nearly five shots per match, while opponents scored none.
Transition and set pieces are two of the most opportunistic phases of the game, and while Jurgen Klopp’s Reds have struggled to establish traction in Premier League play, their performances in the Champions League — after the shock-and-awe of their initial 4-1 loss to Napoli, anyway — suggested that their overall form isn’t too far off from their normal standard.
Title odds, per FiveThirtyEight’s SPI: 8%Title odds, per Caesars Sportsbook: +650 (implied odds: 13%)
Best characteristic in group play: Push, push, push
Leo Messi has begun to look like (the latest evolved version of) Leo Messi again . Neymar is playing his best ball in many years. Kylian Mbappe remains Kylian Mbappe. The midfield, bolstered with youth in the offseason, has energy again.
There were some attention span issues in October, but PSG still cruised to qualification, and they did so with, to use American football parlance, a relentless ground game. They attempted 605 carries (first) and completed 113 progressive carries (second) per match. And while teams are often led in carries by central defenders pushing into the empty space in front of them, PSG did it from the front: Neymar completed 94 progressive carries — more than anyone else in the group stage despite playing in just five of six matches — while midfielder Marco Verratti (83) was second and Mbappe (80) was third.
Overall, they pushed the ball into dangerous areas, then put it in the net: the Mbappe-Messi-Neymar trio combined for 13 goals and nine assists from 38 chances created. And neither Messi nor Neymar played in every match.
Red flag: No big chances somehow
As we learned in last year’s Champions League final, singular huge chances are worth their weight in gold in a knockout competition , and while PSG’s attacking numbers were mostly unassailable, it’s worth noting that only 5% of their shot attempts were worth 0.3 xG or more. Only eight teams created a lower percentage, and only one of those teams advanced in the competition.
4. Real Madrid Title odds, per FiveThirtyEight’s SPI: 8%Title odds, per Caesars Sportsbook: +1100 (implied odds: 8%)
Best characteristic in group play: They created chances at will
After creating some adversity for themselves early in last season’s eventual title run, the defending champs made things easy for themselves this time, winning their first three matches and clinching advancement quickly. They did it primarily with wave after wave of close-range shots.
Real Madrid not only averaged 0.24 shots per possession (second to only Manchester City) but also attempted 59% of their shots in the box (fourth). They also averaged 3.8 shots per match on set pieces, well ahead of everyone else but Liverpool. Their actual scoring numbers were merely fine, in part because of a brief finishing slump from Ballon d’Or winner Karim Benzema (14 shots, 1.5 xG created, zero goals), but it’s difficult to worry too much about this “create tons of excellent looks for your ridiculously talented attackers” plan.
Red flag: They relied too much on Real Madrid Magic
They were tied with RB Leipzig until the 80th minute in matchday two before scoring twice. They were trailing Shakhtar until the fifth minute of second-half stoppage time in matchday four until Antonio Rudiger came through with a bloody header to tie.
Their goal differential in the first 60 minutes was a mediocre +0.2 per match until their blowout of Celtic on the final matchday, but it rose to +0.8 in the final 30. They basically rode this recipe to a Champions League win last year, but it’s an approach that can let you down at inopportune times.
Tier 1-A: The most dominant, most fun team We’ll grant honorary top-tier status to maybe the most purely dominant team of these six matches, one that got younger, cheaper and much, much better (and more fun) this offseason.
3. Napoli Title odds, per FiveThirtyEight’s SPI: 5%Title odds, per Caesars Sportsbook: +1200 (implied odds: 8%)
Best characteristic in group play: Perfection in the attacking third
Perhaps no team in Europe is in better form than Luciano Spalletti’s Azzurri , who had won 13 matches in a row in all competitions — and hadn’t lost since last April — before their meaningless 2-0 defeat to Liverpool on Tuesday. They were ruthless in the group stage, scoring at least three goals in every match until Tuesday.
– Karlsen’s Champions League breakout XI: Kvaratskhelia, Diogo Costa, more
New additions Giovanni Simeone (Hellas Verona ), Khvicha Kvaratskhelia (Dinamo Batumi), Giacomo Raspadori (Sassuolo ) and Andre-Frank Zambo Anguissa (Fulham ) combined for 11 goals and eight assists from 20 chances created, and Napoli ranked both third in shots per possession (0.19) and first in xG per shot (0.15) with 13% of their shots generating 0.3 xG or more (second). And again: That’s with a shutout loss in their meaningless final match! Napoli were a must-watch, and the longer they remain in the competition, the better.
Title odds, per FiveThirtyEight’s SPI: 24%Title odds, per Caesars Sportsbook: +450 (implied odds: 18%)
Best characteristic in group play: No one controls the middle more
No one controls the group stage more, too. Despite playing in the perceived group of death with Inter and Barcelona, Bayern swept their six matches for the third straight season. They did it in Bayern fashion, seizing control of matches quickly (average time of first goal: 23rd minute) and creating high-quality chances nonstop.
As far as best characteristics go, however, “They’re Bayern” didn’t really do it for me. So let’s focus on something unique: No one dominated the middle of the pitch like the German champs. They attempted just 9.7 crosses per match (second-fewest to only Shakhtar), their average possession width was just 32.8 meters (fourth-lowest), and 30% of their touches in the attacking third came from the middle third of the pitch (third-highest). That’s also where nine of their 15 assists and 48 of their 82 chances created (six from Sadio Mane , five each from midfielders Leon Goretzka and Joshua Kimmich ) came from. If you can’t stop Bayern from coming at you right up the guts, you can’t stop Bayern.
Red flag: Their shots were a little too accurate
It’s worth pointing out that while they ranked fourth in xG per shot, they ranked a distant first in putting 49% of their shots on target. Meanwhile, opponents did so with only 28% of their shots, second-lowest. They are obviously one of the co-favorites no matter what, but that ratio will almost certainly shift in the spring.
1. Manchester City Title odds, per FiveThirtyEight’s SPI: 25%Title odds, per Caesars Sportsbook: +190 (implied odds: 34%)
Best characteristic in group play: They remain the best passing team on the planet
In other words, they remain Pep Guardiola’s Manchester City. They enjoyed a 66% possession rate (highest in the group stage), engineered 80% of their matches’ touches in the attacking third (first), completed 91 progressive passes per match (most) and allowed just 24 progressive passes per match (fewest). No one suffocates their opponents and the match itself like the Sky Blues.
Red flag: Not enough high-quality shots?
While the addition of Erling Haaland earned plenty of headlines and created a focal point in attack for City — he scored five of their 10 goals in the four matches he played — it’s interesting to note that while they ranked seventh in xG per shot, they also created only 50% of their shots in the box, 19th. Most other primary contenders topped that, and teams such as Bayern, Napoli, Liverpool and PSG put more of their shots on target and scored more.
– Rico Lewis , 17, breaks Benzema’s Champions League record
We can quibble with the quality of each team’s groups or the number of packed-in defenses each team saw, but even in Premier League play, City’s attack hasn’t really improved with Haaland — they’ve scored 37 goals in 12 EPL matches this year after scoring 36 in their last 12 of last season. Maybe having a focal point in tight, important matches will pay off down the line, though?
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