As we write this, Arsenal are headed toward consecutive second-place finishes and are through to the semifinal of the Champions League. Progress is evident compared to Mikel Arteta’s first full season in charge, 2020-21, when they finished eighth. It’s a sign of how much the squad has been overhauled that of the 11 most-used players that season, just two — Bukayo Saka and Gabriel — are still at the club in significant roles. They’ve steadily added starters as they progressed up the table and have been able to hang on to their better players in doing so.
That has taken them to the brink. The question is how they push on to the next level.
Arteta is at the stage where he has more clout than most of his peer-coaches, and he’ll be working with new sporting director Andrea Berta, who joins after nearly 12 years at Atletico Madrid. Berta only ever worked with one coach (Diego Simeone) at Atleti, and how quickly and effectively the relationship with Arteta blossoms (or not) will inform how well they do.
Despite posting losses the past two seasons, we believe they’re in very good shape in terms of both the Premier League‘s Profit and Sustainability rules and their UEFA equivalent. The run to the Champions League semifinal (and maybe more) should provide a further windfall and two highly paid veteran midfielders — Jorginho and Thomas Partey — are potentially leaving as free agents, though Arteta seemed to suggest recently that Partey could extend his deal. This would give the club an extra £20m to play with on their wage bill, which they’ll need since a number of players will need new contracts.
Beyond that, we believe the club’s net transfer budget could be somewhere between £80m and £100m. We should also note that according to multiple reports, the club have reached an agreement in principle with Real Sociedad central midfielder Martín Zubimendi. He has a release clause of €60m (£52m) so it appears the club are poised to sign him this summer. However, it’s not something you can take for granted since, in theory, any other club could pay the same fee and he could yet change his mind.
Editor’s note: This is the first in this year’s series, Keep or Dump, over the coming weeks on which players to keep, extend and move on from for all the top clubs in the Premier League and Europe.
Albert Sambi Lokonga (25, 2026)
Marcotti: He’s been OK on a bad Sevilla team. Even if Zubimendi comes, you still need a back up defensive midfielder. Sevilla have a €12m option to buy, but I don’t think they’ll exercise it. I’d be tempted to keep him also because with a year left on his deal, there’s no point sending him on loan.
Ogden: He’s been on loan for two seasons already, it’s time to move on. Maybe you get €8m in fees or something.
Verdict: Split between keep, and move on
Fabio Vieira (24, 2027, on loan at Porto)
Ogden: They wasted a lot of money on him. I don’t know who’s going to take him, but he’s a Jorge Mendes player so I’m sure he can find a place on loan.
Marcotti: His residual amortization is still €14m on Arsenal’s books and I don’t think you’ll get that back, especially since he hasn’t done great and Porto have had a really poor season. If you can get a high enough fee, take it — otherwise send him on loan again and hope for the best.
Verdict: Split between move on, and loan out
Forwards
Gabriel Martinelli (23 years old, contract expires in 2027 with club option for additional year)
Ogden: He has plateaued a bit, but he’s also been injured. Still, there’s no need to extend his deal.
Verdict: Keep, but do not extend
Leandro Trossard (30, 2026)
Ogden: He’s reliable. It wouldn’t be the worst thing in the world to keep him, and maybe he leaves as a free agent in the summer.
Marcotti: I think he’s a very useful, versatile forward. If he’s happy to take a one year extension, sign him up.
Verdict: Split between keep/do not extend, and keep/extend
Bukayo Saka (23, 2027)
Ogden: You have to secure him to a longer deal. He loves the club and he’s been great, but you have to think of a four-year rolling contract or something like that because if you don’t and for some reason they do poorly next season, a World Cup year as well, then it could get difficult.
If Arsenal are as ambitious as they claim to be they have to tie him down to a big, long-term contract. He’s their best player and will want to win the biggest trophies somewhere else if Arsenal don’t match his ambition.
Marcotti: Obviously you want to keep him around for a long-time, I’d just be a little cautious with it. He’s already earning in excess of £10m a year which is a lot for someone his age. If you give him a megadeal through say, 2030 then, if he were his agent, I’d want to get Mo Salah type money, closer to twice that. And I could make a strong case for it.
Ultimately he’s the face of the club and what will keep him at Arsenal isn’t just money, but a side capable of winning and competing. You have to get the balance right.
Verdict: Keep and extend
Ethan Nwaneri (18, 2026)
Marcotti: He’s a tremendous prospect, so obviously you extend him, but if I were him or his agent, I’d want to have a serious conversation about how Arteta sees his future.
He played on the right wing, while Saka was out, but obviously that path is blocked. If the future is in midfield, I have Odegaard, Rice, Merino and possibly Kai Havertz there too, if they sign a big name striker. It’s great having a big long-term deal, but what’s my pathway?
Ogden: Well, if you’re that age and you think you’re that good you have to believe you can dislodge one of those players. It happened with the class of ’92 at Manchester United. But at 18 he’s not there yet. Everybody needs to be patient with him.
Verdict: Keep and extend
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Gabriel Jesus (28, 2027)
Ogden: Ideally you’d look to shift him, but that’s hard to do given he suffered a bad injury and given his wages. The teams who can afford his salary don’t need him and the teams who could use him can’t afford his wages. You’d need to get £12m to £15m in transfer fees, and that’s hard to do.
Marcotti: I agree it’s time to move on, you have better alternatives wide and if you sign another forward you have better options there too. Maybe you can work out some sort of loan with an option to buy in January, when he’ll have a year left.
Verdict: Split between move on, and loan out
Marquinhos (22, 2027, on loan at Cruzeiro)
Marcotti: He joined in 2022 and has played just one minute of Premier League football before a string of mostly unsuccessful loan spells. It’s pretty evident he’s headed that way again.
Verdict: Loan out
Reiss Nelson, (24, 2027, on loan at Fulham)
Ogden: He’s been injured, so he’ll have to prove his fitness before he can go on loan again, but that’s what makes sense for him.
Verdict: Loan out
Overall verdict
It’s pretty obvious that they were short-handed up front at the start of the season, and things got worse when first Gabriel Jesus and then Havertz succumbed to injury. Not picking up a striker, even as a short-term option, in January possibly cost them their shot at the league title.
Mark and Gab both agree that this ought to be a priority; where they disagree is on the profile.
Mark would like them to pursue a top-shelf center-forward, Alexander Isak might be too difficult, but if not him someone like Viktor Gyökeres or Benjamin Sesko. Gab disagrees (unless they can shift Havertz for big money, which he doesn’t believe will happen) because the fee involved, plus the cost of bringing in Zubimendi (or a comparable central midfielder, which they also need) would eat up most of the budget and make extending the likes of Saliba, Lewis-Skelly, Nwaneri and Saka that much more difficult.
Gab would prefer they bring in a cheaper forward, one who is OK to come off the bench and offers a different profile to Havertz — someone like Jorgen Strand Larsen or Jean-Phillpe Mateta, for example. Maybe even Ollie Watkins, though he’d be more expensive. And, of course, if Ipswich go down, they’ll be in the hunt for Liam Delap and his £30m release clause.
We expect them to sign Zubimendi in midfield and, if they don’t, spend a comparable amount on another defensive midfielder. How much they recoup from player departures is tough to tell, it could be as much as £50m if they manage to shift Kiwior as well (as Gab would like to see). They will need to find a reserve defensive midfielder as well and, as Gab says, Lokonga is a cheap and cheerful in-house solution.
Longer-term, a lot will depend on the fitness and durability of Calafiori and Timber as well as the development of Lewis-Skelly and Nwaneri. Here, Arsenal are somewhat penalized by the fact that they’re a relatively young team, because pathways for young talent are important and in Nwaneri’s case, the incumbent, Odegaard is still just 26.
Arsenal are poised for a great leap forward if they make the right calls. It’s going to be a big summer for Berta and Arteta.
