Penrith’s pain right now is plain for all to see. But the true impact of their salary cap squeeze will come in six weeks’ time when the Origin period hits the champion club like never before.
For all the pulling apart of the Panthers’ porous defence so far this season – by oppositions and analysts alike – the looming absence of Nathan Cleary, Isaah Yeo, Liam Martin, Brian To’o and Dylan Edwards is the biggest threat to the Penrith dynasty.
The Panthers are on a five-game losing run and stuck in 16th place going into Saturday’s clash with the Roosters.
The trip to Allianz Stadium begins a difficult month against unpredictable opponents Manly, Brisbane and North Queensland in Townsville, who all have the capacity to be world beaters on their day.
Penrith’s first bye in round 11 will be followed up by Laurie Daley announcing his first Origin squad. For all of the Panthers’ struggles to start 2025, Cleary, Yeo, Martin and To’o remain walk-up starts for NSW if they are fully fit.
Edwards is the Blues incumbent fullback too, although he could well be pushed by a resurgent James Tedesco. But his would be the toughest incumbency to ignore given Edwards influence in the 2024 series triumph, and status as the most consistent No.1 of the past four years.
Recent Kangaroos debutant Lindsay Smith is the Panther whose Origin claims are probably going to be dashed by their poor start to the season and the Blues’ strong front-row stocks.
But even if Smith is left out, come round 12 against Newcastle, Penrith will be without five of the most influential figures.
From this weekend to the end of the Origin period in early July, Penrith will play 10 games. If they reverse their current fortunes and win 50 per cent of them, the Panthers will be on 18 points and needing to win six from their last eight games just to finish on 30 points – the entry point to the finals in 2024.
Historically, Ivan Cleary has done the Origin dance better than anyone. Since 2021, Penrith boasts a 16-5 record across the Origin periods, when players are either unavailable, rested or backing up after the brutal interstate contests.
But Cleary never done it with such shallow depth left behind when his stars depart for Origin duty. Or from further back in the field; Penrith has started the past four representative periods from either first or second on the ladder.
And then James Fisher-Harris played some of his best football as stand-in skipper.
Sunia Turuva’s 165 running metres a game helped ease the burden when Edwards’ and To’o’s backfield yardage game was lost.
And while Jarome Luai was often alongside Cleary at the NSW scrumbase, he proved himself a top-flight No.7 when the game’s best player spent two months on the sidelines last winter.
Rare areas: Penrith’s struggles in 2025 have them sitting second last on the ladder.Credit: NRL Imagery
Viliame Kikau emerged as a key senior man holding the fort before he moved on to the Bulldogs, as did Api Koroisau when he wasn’t joining Penrith’s growing Blues contingent in camp.
Those roles will now fall to the likes of Moses Leota, Mitch Kenny, Scott Sorensen and Kiwi international Isaiah Papali’i when Daley takes Penrith’s best up to NSW’s Blue Mountains base.
The Panthers’ Origin period draw features two games against western Sydney rivals Parramatta, the only side below them on the NRL ladder.
Twice Penrith will face the Eels on a Sunday at Commbank Stadium in rounds 13 and 19, when their NSW players will either be rested or backing up on a four-day turnaround, with potentially Mitchell Moses and/or Zac Lomax doing the same for Parramatta.
After Luai and the Tigers in round 14, the Panthers have a bye before Origin II on Wednesday, June 18 in Perth.
But it’s hard to see too many Panthers making the cross-country dash to Sydney, then Auckland for Saturday’s clash with the Warriors.
Especially when competition leaders Canterbury await on a five-day turnaround the following Thursday (with the Bulldogs coming off a round 16 bye while Penrith duck across the Tasman).
The Panthers’ three byes have been rightly built into the NRL draw around the representative period.
Yeo, Martin and To’o have not missed an Origin match in the past four years. When Yeo was awarded the Golden Boot as international rugby league’s best player last season, Fox Sports calculated that his 147 matches since the start of 2020 were the most of any player in those five years – with the Penrith skipper averaging 73 minutes across them.
Tales of Penrith players pushing through injuries and delaying surgeries to keep winning premierships have abounded throughout their four titles.
As Immortal Andrew Johns has pointed out more than once, the Panthers best have played a draining amount of rugby league – plenty of it shrugging aside pain – throughout that winning run.
The toll might just be beginning to show as Edwards and To’o nurse early season soft-tissue injuries and Penrith battle to find both form and critical pre-Origin wins. All of which raises the stakes this Saturday against the Roosters and in the weeks to come.
Otherwise by the time their best and brightest depart for the interstate arena, the Panthers could well be in a whole new world of hurt.
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