Euro 2025 kicks off on July 2, when 16 women’s teams will have the chance to get their hands on the iconic trophy. But how likely is each one to win the tournament?
The question seems simple enough, but it mixes in all manner of elements: Star quality, squad depth, national confidence, weaknesses, tactical approaches, injuries and — perhaps most importantly for those below the top eight — bracketology, too. Some nations have landed in really sweet spots with regard to a potential pathway into the quarterfinals (or beyond).
Who are the favorites? Who’s got no chance? Amid the ongoing UEFA Women’s Nations League campaign, we’ve ranked all 16 teams who will travel to Switzerland this summer. Let’s dive in, and we’ll re-assess after the final round of Nations League matches at the start of June.
In their first-ever major tournament, Wales are one of the biggest underdogs. A debutant winning the Euros at their first attempt would be nothing short of a miracle. It doesn’t help that they’ve landed in the toughest group alongside England, France and Netherlands, who are all in the top eight of the FIFA World Ranking. Meanwhile, Wales sit 31st — the lowest of any team at Euro 2025. This summer is less about lifting the trophy and more about gaining experience and laying foundations for the future.
Much like Wales, Poland’s hopes of winning the trophy in their tournament debut are a long shot. They’ve bounced between Nations Leagues A and B since the competition began, which suggests they have promise but little consistency. Indeed, their inability to win a single game in League A so far shows they aren’t quite ready to mount a serious challenge for the Euros. With star striker Ewa Pajor of Barcelona leading the line, they have potential but it likely isn’t their moment.
Switzerland have talent but are still a step behind Europe’s elite. In fact, while it’s a tough question, it’s worth asking: if they weren’t the hosts, would they have qualified at all? Recent defeats to Spain (7-1) and Germany (6-0) casts doubt on their ability to mix it at this level, though they did beat France 2-1 in October. Automatic qualification gives them a seat at the table, but their chances of winning on home soil look slim at best, even if they are in the easiest group with Norway, Iceland and Finland.
Portugal impressed during their World Cup debut last summer and are now into their third major tournament in a row. They finished bottom of their group at Euro 2017 and 2022, but have shown flashes of potential in the Nations League, where they caught both England and Spain briefly off guard with quick, counter-attacking football. Likely to be without star players Kika Nazareth and Jéssica Silva through injury, sustaining that level of play over a full tournament and shutting down the world’s best attacking sides feels like a stretch.
Finland have been regulars at the Euros, missing only the 2017 edition since they debuted in 2005. Their first appearance was their best result, reaching the semifinals, but they’ve never matched that since and it’s hard to picture this being the year they break that ceiling. They are ranked 25th in the world by FIFA and have consistently handled teams below or around them, but have been unable to beat top-tier opposition. Grouped with Switzerland (23), Iceland (13) and Norway (15), there’s a chance to match their best tournament performance; anything beyond that would be a surprise.
