You don’t get a prize for winning the Herald’s tipping competition. Speaking from experience, as the carryover champion, lording it over your colleagues is reward enough.
However, things haven’t gone to plan in season 2025.
It has been an upset-a-thon. Time-honoured techniques – such as always backing Penrith and never tipping the Tigers – are no longer paying dividends.
According to Sportsbet, teams installed as favourites have a win ratio of 62.5 per cent over the opening five rounds, a mirror image of last season’s figures. Yet it’s the nature of the boilovers that has caught many punters on the hop. There was nothing to suggest, after witnessing the Panthers roll Cronulla in Las Vegas, that it would be their last win of the season to date.
Or that the Dragons could roll Melbourne one week, and then lose to Parramatta the next. Or that there could be such a discrepancy between the best and worst of the Sea Eagles, even allowing for another Tom Trbojevic injury. And who woulda thunk the Bulldogs – despite missing Matt Burton and Viliame Kikau for several weeks – would sit undefeated at the top of the ladder?
All of this is good news for rugby league. The NRL has long boasted that, on any given day, any team could beat another. However, over the past four seasons, it has felt like everyone has been playing for the right to be beaten by Penrith on the first Sunday in October.
Yet, at the moment, there is genuine intrigue match to match, let alone as to who will be the eventual premiers.
“It’s been an unpredictable and exciting start to the season,” said NRL chief executive Andrew Abdo.
“Just one team from last year’s top four, and three teams from the 2024 top eight, are currently in the top eight.
“Any team can win on any given day. There are no easy games in the NRL.
“The standard of football has been brilliant. This will be an incredibly close competition based on what we’ve seen in the first five rounds.”
Even Parramatta has managed a victory this year.Credit: Getty Images
That is all good and well, but how to pick a winner in round six? Is your best bet to select the bookies’ choice? Go with the home team? Is there a bounce-back factor after a large loss?
We asked Champion Data to crunch the numbers, and here is what they came up with. There is some advantage to playing at home, with the hosts winning 56.3 per cent of the time.
There is also a significant bounceback rate, especially when teams are coming off a massive touch-up. Sides that have lost by 20 points or more have a 43.7 per cent chance of winning the following week, proof that big turnarounds are a genuine phenomenon.
For proof, look no further than the Roosters; trounced 50-14 by the Broncos in the opening round, nobody gave them a chance against Penrith the following week. Despite missing Sam Walker, Brandon Smith, Victor Radley, Spencer Leniu, Lindsay Collins and Nat Butcher, the Tricolours pulled off what has been described as their greatest win ever – a 38-32 win over the four-time premiers.
“Any team can win on any given day. There are no easy games in the NRL.”
NRL CEO Andrew Abdo
Did anyone pick that one?
Then there’s the issue of sticking with a team on a streak. Do you ride your luck, or is each victory bringing them closer to their next defeat? An early season trend is for teams to go win-loss, win-loss, before the cream rises to the top after the opening months.
Since 2016, the streak series has gone as follows:
One win – 440 times
Two wins in a row – 428 times;
Three wins in a row – 221 times;
Four wins in a row – 111 times;
Five+ wins in a row – 70 times.
That last stat is something to keep in mind when the undefeated Bulldogs, after coming off a bye, host South Sydney in their traditional Good Friday clash.
And then there’s the practice of going with the higher-ranked team. If you’ve picked the one sitting lower on the ladder, here’s your success rate over the past four seasons;
2025 – 35%;
2024 – 28.7%;
2023 – 40.7%;
2022 – 34.9%.
So what to make of it all? It’s just as tight at the bottom of the ladder as it is at the top. After the Eels and Dolphins sung the team song on the weekend, every team has enjoyed at least one win. There is still plenty of time for the bottom-feeders to rise into the ranks of respectability.
Hopefully, given my lowly standing, the same applies to the tipping competition.
NRL is Live and Free on Channel 9 & 9Now
Michael Chammas and Andrew “Joey” Johns dissect the upcoming NRL round, plus the latest footy news, results and analysis. Sign up for the Sin Bin newsletter.
