The Melbourne Cup is upon us for another year, with 24 horses set to do battle over the famous two-mile journey at Flemington.
The track is likely to be in the soft or heavy range, with rain and low temperatures forecast in the lead-up and on raceday.
The race is set to get underway at 3pm (AEDT) on Tuesday November 1 and can be watched on Channel 10.
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Here is everything you need to know to pick the winner of the great race — including a $100 betting strategy.
I have, perhaps a little ambitiously, worked to a Soft 7 rating.
Here is the punters.com.aucomplete Melbourne Cup field analysis – including the case for and against every horse – plus top four tips and suggested $100 betting strategy below, punters.com.au reports.
The early speed is against the outside rail here, with Serpentine and Knights Order sure to dash across from barriers 23 and 24 respectively. That should lead to a genuine early tempo, with the field likely to string right out over the first 800m. Numerian, High Emocean and Interpretation should be handy from favourable gates. The favourite Deauville Legend maps nicely around midfield with cover, while Camorra, Hoo Ya Mal and Without A Fight will need a bit of luck early to slot in.
You can also see the full barrier list here after Saturday’s draw.
ANALYSIS
1. GOLD TRIP
Weight: 57.5kg — Barrier 14 — Odds win $11, place $3 — Trainer: Ciaron Maher/Dave Eustace — Jockey: Mark Zahra
The Maher and Eustace import has finally got some momentum going in Australia, running a close 2nd in the Caulfield Cup (2400m) before racing without luck in the Cox Plate (2040m) last start. His best form over 2400m is world-class but he’s a total unknown beyond that distance.
Why he can win: He was only just grabbed late in the Caulfield Cup by a horse carrying 6kg less than him. He should have finished closer in the Cox Plate last start and he handles wet ground.
Why he can’t win: He’s unproven beyond 2400m and has had a taxing preparation off a very long break. Very few horses win the Cup with more than 57kg, with Makybe Diva the last to do it with 58kg in 2005.
2. DUAIS
55.5kg — Barrier 10 — Odds: win $23, place $6.50, — T: Edward Cummings — J: Hugh Bowman
One of the favourites for both Cups coming into this spring, the Edward Cummings-trained mare has been a few lengths below her best this prep. Her G1 Turnbull Stakes (2000m) run here two-back was plain, but there were more encouraging signs in the Caulfield Cup (2400m) last start when coming from 16th at the 400m to finish 8th. Perhaps she’s looking for this journey?
Why she can win: She was brilliant winning the Australian Cup at this track and her Tancred Stakes victory was just as good, if not better. She found the line nicely off an unsuitable tempo in the Caulfield Cup last start.
Why she can’t win: She was sound in the Caulfield Cup last start but others here were better. She’s yet to place in four runs this campaign and isn’t the same horse we saw in the autumn.
55.5kg — Barrier 24 — Odds win $23, place $6.50 — T: Gai Waterhouse/Adrian Bott — J: Tim Clark
Knights Order was beaten 25.65L in this event last year but that was on a Good 4 track and his lead-up form was poor. He’s going much better this time around and is set to strike his preferred wet ground. He battled on gamely for 4th in the G1 Turnbull Stakes (2000m) two-back, before kicking strongly under pressure to place in the Caulfield Cup (2400m) last start.
Why he can win: He gets out in front and responds when challenged, as he did in the Caulfield Cup last start when lifting off the canvas to grab 3rd. He won the Sydney Cup over this distance and loves wet ground.
Why he can’t win: The Sydney Cup form is rarely strong enough and he only carried 51.5kg there but has 55.5kg in this. He’s had five starts at Flemington and failed to place.
4. MONTEFILIA
55.5kg — Barrier 11 — Odds: win $13, place $4 — T: David Payne — J: Jason Collett
A flat spot from the 600m to the 450m cost Montefilia a better finish in the Caulfield Cup (2400m) last start. She lost the back of Gold Trip and had to pick up again in the straight, which she did quite strongly. She was very disappointing in the G2 Hill Stakes (2000m) at Randwick prior, but that was on a Heavy 8 track.
Why she can win: Her Caulfield Cup run was excellent and she could have really tested Durston if she didn’t lose her spot and momentum around the home turn. She’s had one previous run here for a G1 placing in the 2020 VRC Oaks.
Why she can’t win: She placed in the Oaks but that’s as far as she’s been (2500m) and she wasn’t strong through the line. She was really poor on a Heavy 8 track two-back.
5. NUMERIAN
55.5kg — Barrier 7 —Odds: win $51, place $12 — T: Annabel Neasham — J: Tommy Berry
Numerian isn’t blessed with great change-up speed but is a real trier and has been a model of consistency since finishing down the track in the G1 Doncaster (1600m). He split the in-form Cascadian and Montefilia in the G2 Hill Stakes (2000m) two-back, before battling on okay for 5th in the Caulfield Cup (2400m) last time.
Why he can win: His form this year has been excellent, always thereabouts at Listed and Group level. He handles wet ground and was only 1.15L away in the Caulfield Cup last start.
Why he can’t win: He had his chance in the Caulfield Cup but didn’t appear to stay the 2400m journey. Stepping up an extra 800m looks a massive query.
55.5kg — Barrier 18 — Odds: win $11, place $3.50 — T: Simon and Ed Crisford — J: William Buick
Without A Fight was beaten as a $3.50 favourite at Newmarket last start but his effort was sound and followed consecutive 2787m wins by 1.8L and 3.5L. He generally puts himself in the picture early and gets the services of one of the most in-form jockeys in the world in William Buick.
Why he can win: He very rarely runs a bad race, with only three unplaced efforts across his 17-start career. He recorded dominant back-to-back wins over 2787m in June/July and should handle the distance.
Why he can’t win: He’s never raced on a really wet track and his best efforts have come on top of the ground. Barrier 18 means he’ll have to do a bit of work early to find a position.
7. CAMORRA
55kg — Barrier 17 — Odds: win $51, place $12 — T: Ben and JD Hayes — J: Ben Melham
You couldn’t possibly back Camorra on his last-start effort in the G1 Irish St Leger (2816m) when beaten over 20L. The soft track was seemingly detrimental there because he was excellent winning the G2 Curragh Cup over the same route prior. Based on that he needs the rain to stay away and the track to dry out.
Why he can win: He won the Curragh Cup – the same race won by previous Melbourne Cup winners Twilight Payment and Rekindling. He can mix it up but his best form (beating talented stayer Wordsworth) reads well for this.
Why he can’t win: He’s only had one start since his Curragh Cup win in June and it was awful, finishing 20.7L from Kyprios in the Irish St Leger. He has been beaten big margins in his last three starts on rain-affected ground.
55kg — Barrier 9 — Win $3.60, place $1.80 — T: James Ferguson — J: Kerrin McEvoy
As a lightly-raced 4YO, this international visitor has a similar profile to recent Cup winners Cross Counter (2018) and Rekindling (2017). He’s only finished outside of the top two once in his seven-start career and was dominant winning the G2 Great Voltigeur Stakes (2385m) last start. His form is hard to knock – he just needs to do it over two miles.
Why he can win: He has a very similar profile to 2018 Cup winner Cross Counter, minus the light weight. He thrashed Cox Plate placegetter El Bodegon in the Great Voltigeur Stakes last start. Jockey Kerrin McEvoy has won this race three times.
Why he can’t win: He’s never raced beyond 2615m and has never seen a soft track. Two miles on a genuinely rain-affected track could test him, especially with 55kg – more weight than similarly-credentialed internationals have carried in this race previously.
9. STOCKMAN
54kg — Barrier 12 — Odds: win $34, place $8 — T: Joe Pride — J: Sam Clipperton
Stockman, somewhat surprisingly, raced over 2000m at Rosehill on Saturday after winning the St Leger (2600m) a fortnight ago. He’s now had six starts for the campaign, mostly on wet tracks, so fitness certainly won’t be an excuse. He’s only had one previous run over this trip and was beaten 13.16L (this year’s Sydney Cup).
Why he can win: He’s a swimmer, so the more rain the better. He’s been very consistent this campaign and was strong winning over 2600m on a wet track last start.
Why he can’t win: He finished 13.16L away in the Sydney Cup over this distance. He was beaten by Alegron and Knights Order three-back and appeared to have his chance in the Metrop.
10. VOW AND DECLARE
54kg — Barrier 4 — Odds: win $17, place $4 — T: Danny O’Brien — J: Blake Shinn
Vow And Declare was a surprise winner of this event in 2019, before finishing 18th in 2020. He only had three runs last year – all of them ordinary – but O’Brien has got him back on track this campaign. He was solid in the G3 Bart Cummings (2510m) two-back, before producing a similar effort in the Caulfield Cup (2400m) last start. He needs to improve again but he should be ready to peak.
Why he can win: He won this race in 2019 and only has 2kg more here. O’Brien has got him back in form this spring, battling on well in the Caulfield Cup to finish within 2L of the winner.
Why he can’t win: He hasn’t won a race since the 2019 Cup, some 14 starts ago. In fact, he’s only placed on two occasions in that time. He doesn’t want it worse than a Soft 7.
11. YOUNG WERTHER
54kg — Barrier 21 — Odds: win $34, place $8.50 — T: Danny O’Brien — J: Damian Lane
It’s been 13 starts since Young Werther’s one and only win – in a Geelong maiden over 1500m – but he’s been highly-competitive in some hot races. He was outclassed in the Cox Plate (2040m) last start but still crossed the line with Gold Trip. He has run well over 2400m (against his own age) but hasn’t raced beyond that distance.
Why he can win: He gave class stayer Incentivise a scare in last year’s Turnbull Stakes at this track. His form this campaign has been solid, finishing only 3.1L off Anamoe in the Cox Plate last start.
Why he can’t win: He’s still stuck on one win and is a query beyond 2500m. He placed in the Vic Derby here but that was behind Johnny Get Angry. He’s drawn to be spotting the leaders a big start.
12. HOO YA MAL
53.5kg — Barrier 15 — Odds: win $21, place $6 — T: Gai Waterhouse/Adrian Bott — J: Craig Williams
Hoo Ya Mal has been very consistent, with the exception of his most recent performance in the G1 English St Leger (2922) at Doncaster. He was beaten 7.1L there after appearing to have every chance. Prior to that though he was a big winner over 2816m at Goodwood, after crossing the line with Deauville Legend in the G3 Gordon Stakes (2412m).
Why he can win: He was only 0.4L off Deauville Legend over 2412m three-back and his jockey dropped the whip there. Waterhouse won the 2013 Cup with Fiorente, who had also placed in the Gordon Stakes previously.
Why he can’t win: He was terrible in the English St Leger last start, with the soft conditions blamed for the performance. That doesn’t bode well if the track is a Soft 7 or worse here.
13. SERPENTINE
53kg — Barrier 23 — Odds: win $51, place $12 — T: Robert Hickmott — J: John Allen
Serpentine will provide Knights Order with a bit of competition for the lead, which could lead to a strong early tempo being set. The Lloyd Williams-owned import has been hugely disappointing in Australia, but did show nice improvement to place in Saturday’s G3 Archer Stakes (2500m) at this track.
Why he can win: He finally showed something on Derby day, finishing 2nd in the Archer Stakes. He won the Epsom Derby by some 5.5L back in 2020.
Why he can’t win: He hadn’t fired a shot in four starts in Australia before his Archer performance on Saturday. Outside of the winner, that was a race full of out-of-form gallopers.
53kg — Barrier 13 — Odds: win $51, place $12 — T: Phillip Stokes — J: Daniel Moor
This year’s G2 Adelaide Cup (3200m) winner has been well-held in three runs this campaign. He did have excuses in the G3 Bart Cummings (2510m) here last start though when covering additional ground. He’s been more effective on dry ground than wet.
Why he can win: He won the Adelaide Cup over this trip and was solid in the Sydney Cup on a Heavy 10. He didn’t enjoy the most economical run in the Bart Cummings here last start but was only 2.4L off the winner.
Why he can’t win: The Adelaide Cup wasn’t a strong race and Knight’s Order beat him by 4.58L in the Sydney Cup. He hasn’t finished closer than 7th in three runs this preparation.
15. GRAND PROMENADE
53kg — Barrier 1 — Odds: win $51, place $10 — T: Ciaron Maher and Dave Eustace — J: Harry Coffey
Grand Promenade had a tough run in this race last year and hasn’t really been the same horse since. He’s had four starts and hasn’t looked like placing, finishing 11.75 off Francesco Guardi in the G2 Moonee Valley Cup (2500m) last start. He needs it dry, and that seems unlikely.
Why he can win: He finished 6th in this race last year after enduring a tough run in transit. He’s a three-time winner at this track and is in an astute stable.
Why he can’t win: He hasn’t done anything in four runs since last year’s Cup. He was thrashed in the Moonee Valley Cup last start when given a nice ride. Anything worse than a Soft 6 brings him undone.
16. ARAPAHO
52.5kg — Barrier 19 — Odds: win $51, place $10 — T: Bjorn Baker — J: Rachel King
Arapaho has been in work since March, racing 14 times this preparation for three wins. One of those victories came over Francesco Guardi in the G3 Premier’s Cup (2000m) at Randwick. He was sound over 2600m in the St Leger last start but Stockman was better.
Why he can win: He loves wet tracks, with 12 of his 14 career placings coming on rain-affected ground. He’s beaten Franceso Guardi this campaign and been competitive with Durston.
Why he can’t win: He was well-held in the Metrop two-back and finished 1.82L off Stockman over 2600m last start. He’s been up forever and it’s unlikely there is much improvement in him this preparation.
17. EMISSARY
51.5kg — Barrier 3 — Odds: win $26, place $7.50 — T: Mike Moroney — J: Patrick Moloney
Emissary is a tricky horse to get a proper read on. He was incredibly plain in the G2 Herbert Power (2400m) two-back, before winning a very similar race – the G3 Geelong Cup (2400m) – in good fashion last start. He gets in light here with 51.5kg but he doesn’t want it too wet.
Why he can win: He was a stylish winner of the Geelong Cup last start, which has been a solid guide for this race in the past. He drops from 56kg down to just 51.5kg.
Why he can’t win: Firmer footing may have been the key to his sharp improvement in the Geelong Cup. He won’t get that here and he has no form to speak of beyond 2500m.
18. LUNAR FLARE
51.5kg — Barrier 12 — Odds: win $15, place $4.50 — T: Grahame Begg — J: Michael Dee
Lunar Flare enjoyed a lovely run in transit and was too strong for the in-form Francesco Guardi in the G3 Bart Cummings (2510m) here. She then ran home soundly behind that same galloper over 2500m at The Valley last start, finishing 2.75L clear of 3rd.
Why she can win: Her form is right up there as far as the locals go, winning the Bart Cummings two-back and placing in the Moonee Valley Cup. Prince of Penzance came off a similar set-up to win the 2015 Cup.
Why she can’t win: She’s only raced beyond 2500m once and was beaten a long way (at this track). There was only 2.4L across the first 10 across the line in the Bart Cummings, so it might not be the right form for this.
19. SMOKIN’ ROMANS
51.5kg — Barrier 16 — Odds: win $26, place $7 — T: Ciaron Maher and Dave Eustace — J: Jamie Kah
Smokin’ Romans has been a revelation this spring, winning the G3 Naturalism (2000m) on a heavy track, before recording a soft 1.5L victory in the G1 Turnbull Stakes (2000m). He was left flat-footed – more pilot error than his own fault – in the Caulfield Cup (2400m) last start, so there were excuses for him there.
Why he can win: He was sent out favourite ($3.90) in the Caulfield Cup and was a touch unlucky there, with Kah arguably missing the boat. He handles all surfaces and is a three-time winner over 2500m.
Why he can’t win: He wasn’t in the A-ground in the Caulfield Cup but it still wasn’t an ideal Melbourne Cup trial. He was beaten 21.4L in his only previous run in this distance range.
20. TRALEE ROSE
51.5kg — Barrier 22 — Odds: win $67, place $15 — T: Simon Wilde — J: Dean Yendall
Tralee Rose appeared to be travelling okay in the approach to the final turn in the Caulfield Cup (2400m) last start but copped a decent bump from the eventual winner Durston and lost momentum. She picked herself up again to find the line okay in her best effort since last year’s Melbourne Cup 9th-placing.
Why she can win: Her only unplaced run in five starts at this track came in last year’s Melbourne Cup when galloped on in the run. She was unlucky not to finish a bit closer in the Caulfield Cup last start.
Why she can’t win: She was going a lot better when beaten 16.7L in this event last year. She’s finished 7th (of 7), 14th and 13th in three runs since and while honest, others here were better than her in the Caulfield Cup.
21. POINT NEPEAN
51kg — Barrier 20 — Odds: SCRATCHED, T: Robert Hickmott — J: Wayne Lordan
Point Nepean was withdrawn from the race on Monday morning after Racing Victoria stewards advised he returned elevated blood levels.
22. HIGH EMOCEAN
50kg — Barrier 8 — Odds: win $51, place $10, T: Ciaron Maher and Dave Eustace — J: Teo Nugent
High Emocean has finished top-two in 12 of her 22 career starts and handles all surfaces. She was well-beaten in the Bagot Handicap (2800m) here back in January but she’s clearly improved since then. Whether she’s improved enough to be competitive in this is the query.
Why she can win: She’s very effective on wet ground – especially heavy (3:2-0-1). She’s been given a solid grounding into this, racing over 2400m+ at her last four starts.
Why she can’t win: She was given an absolute peach of a ride to win the Bendigo Cup and that doesn’t look the right form for this. She’s yet to prove herself in this distance range, finishing 14L from Warning over 2600m in the St Leger.
23. INTERPRETATION
50kg — Barrier 6 — Odds: win $41, place $10 — T: Ciaron Maher and Dave Eustace — J: Craig Newitt
This Maher and Eustace-trained import came down to Australia with a bit of hype around him having won three from six, including a dominant Listed win over 2816m in Ireland. He’s had various excuses but has been disappointing for his new stable so far, with the exception of a solid 3rd to Lunar Flare in the G3 Bart Cummings (2510m) two-back.
Why he can win: He was solid in the Bart Cummings two-back and Francesco Guardi has franked the form. His international form suggests he’ll handle the distance, especially with just 50kg on his back.
Why he can’t win: He was beaten 4.15L in an ordinary Geelong Cup last start, pulling up lame. High Emocean comfortably had his measure when they clashed over 2500m here three-back.
24. REALM OF FLOWERS
50kg — Barrier 5 — Odds: win $13, place $4 — T: Anthony and Sam Freedman — J: Damien Thornton
Realm Of Flowers was scratched from the Archer on Derby day, so the Freedman stable clearly have no concerns with her fitness levels. She’s only had three starts since finishing 6th in last year’s G3 Bart Cummings (2520m), and her latest was clearly her best – just missing in the G1 Metrop after covering ground.
Why she can win: She produced the run of the race in the Metrop last start when just beaten in a blanket finish. She was a 4.75L winner over 2800m here last year and handles wet ground.
Why she can’t win: She’s been well-held in three Melbourne runs since her Andrew Ramsden win. She was beaten 3.8L in the 2021 Sydney Cup and Carif had her measure in the Sandown Cup over this trip.
VERDICT
8. Deauville Legend
6. Without A Fight
12. Hoo Ya Mal
3. Knights Order
$100 BETTING STRATEGY
$50 on Deauville Legend
$50 boxed quinella: 6, 8, 12
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– This story originally appeared on punters.com.au and has been republished with permission
