Half the battle when it comes to picking the Melbourne Cup winner is lining up formlines from Australia and abroad — and it can get tricky.
We’re here to help, with this in-depth look at the key lead-up runs ahead of the big 3200m handicap.
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CHEAT SHEET: Two-time winner Corey Brown’s ultimate form guide
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FULL FORM GUIDE: Why our expert is tipping a big upset
CAULFIELD CUP
2400m, Caulfield, Oct 15
VOW AND DECLARE – 6th – A terrific run to grind home for sixth after being caught wide from barrier 16. Didn’t threaten the leaders but looked like he had 3200m in mind, a distance you know he can cover from his Melbourne Cup win in 2019.
MONTEFILIA – 4th – Didn’t start all that well and eased back but caught the eye with a brilliant finish in the straight when she only got clear late on. Super performance.
DUAIS – 8th – Had a decent run in transit but had to drop out near last towards the turn. Didn’t flash home but ground away solidly towards the line, which is what you want stepping up this extra 800m.
GOLD TRIP – 2nd – Turns in a great run after travelling three wide most of the trip, hitting the lead at the 200m and almost hanging on for the win.
KNIGHTS ORDER – 3rd – Superb effort after having to cross from gate 17 – second widest – and trying to lead throughout. Fought on doggedly in the straight to just be beaten into third by a length.
NUMERIAN – 5th – Strong run after working to get across from the start then travelling up on the pace. Held on well for fifth and will derive fitness from that outing.
SMOKIN’ ROMANS – 7th – Disappointing effort despite questions over the ride. Drew well from gate five, had a cosy run in transit; suffered a lack of room around the home bend which forced him to go inside, but didn’t show much of a finish.
TRALEE ROSE – 13th – Run wasn’t as bad as you might think as she didn’t get a lot of room from the 800m on and was still boxing on in the straight, suggesting she’ll relish the extra distance on Tuesday.
GREAT VOLTIGEUR STAKES
2385m, York, England, August 17
DEAUVILLE LEGEND – 1st – Turns in a supreme effort here in the white and red silks, albeit over the shorter 2385m trip. Had run of the race third on the fence, took a while to get clear running but in the end strode away in the straight. Note El Bodegon in the green and black running third, before he also ran third in the Cox Plate last Saturday.
JOHN SMITH’S SILVER CUP
2787m, York, England, July 9
WITHOUT A FIGHT – 1st – Nothing dramatic to report: Only beat two home, so didn’t get blocked for a run or some such. The small fields often found in England – he’s raced against no more than five opponents in each of his past four runs – are a bit of an issue. You can only beat what’s in front of you, and it can still be a test of staying ability, but you wonder what he’ll think of meeting 23 rivals on Tuesday. He does, however, show he can at least get a long distance by powering away at the end of this 2787m trip.
MARCH STAKES
2816m, Goodwood, England, August 27
HOO YA MAL – 1st – Similar story to Without A Fight’s run: tiny field, sat behind leader, powered away. He did at least run second of 17 in the big one – the English Derby – in June.
CURRAGH CUP
2816m, Curragh, Ireland, June 24
CAMORRA – 1st – Sits third as they bowl along and grinds home to get the win, albeit only just hauling in the horse who’d tried to lead all the way and carried the same weight.
THE BART CUMMINGS
2500m, Flemington, October 1
LUNAR FLARE – 1st – Always travelling well in behind the pace and charged ahead once clear in the straight.
INTERPRETATION – 3rd – Not a bad run as it took him a while to get cover after working from the straight and sitting in the “death seat”, outside the leader without cover.
VOW AND DECLARE – 5th – A strong run after having a good position in transit but then being squeezed out for room at a vital stage entering the home straight. Works home well once clear.
HIGH EMOCEAN – 6th – Worked home solidly after having a decent run in transit.
SERPENTINE – 9th – Led and got a stitch in the last 200m. Fitter for subsequent run in the Archer Stakes on Saturday.
DAQUIANSWEET JUNIOR – 10th – Didn’t have many favours in transit, sitting three wide for a large part of the trip. Was entitled to tire as he did.
COX PLATE
2040m, Moonee Valley, October 22
GOLD TRIP – 9th – Eased back from start, travelled along the inside and didn’t have a lot of room or luck. Checked on the turn and forced back towards the inside and finishing strongly to be not far away. A better 9th than that sounds.
YOUNG WERTHER – 10th – Enjoyed a nice run in transit, fifth the fence, but didn’t finish on in the straight.
Anamoe wins the Cox Plate | 00:27
GEELONG CUP
2400m, Geelong, October 19
EMISSARY – 1st – A tad slow out and went back, comes around them and bolts home late.
INTERPRETATION – 6th – Not a great run, just held ground in the straight.
Emissary takes out Geelong Cup | 01:00
ST LEGER STAKES
2600m, Randwick, October 15
STOCKMAN – 1st – Enjoyed a comfortable run from gate 3, sixth one off the fence, and proved superior in the end and held the second-placegetter safely.
ARAPAHO – 2nd – Eased back to last and made good ground in the straight, plugging on like a dour stayer. This isn’t normally much of a top class form race for a Melbourne Cup, however.
MOONEE VALLEY CUP
2500m, Moonee Valley, October 22
LUNAR FLARE – 2nd – Eased back from wide gate, and keeps pushing on from the 500m to stay on well and be beaten only by a very good one.
GRAND PROMENADE – 6th – Had a nice run one out and one back, but just plodded in the straight.
SERPENTINE – 10th – Caught a little wide early, pushed up outside leader, showed nothing in last 400m.
ARCHER STAKES
2500m, Flemington, Saturday
SERPENTINE – 2nd – Led with blinkers on for the first time. Showed benefit of recent (ordinary) runs to his fitness by boxing on gamely in the straight to only go under by a length.
