The wrong Red Bull Racing driver took pole at the Mexico City Grand Prix, at least according to the packed-house crowd.
Max Verstappen stormed to top spot ahead of the resurgent Mercedes drivers, but Sergio Perez could muster only fourth.
His car’s enthusiasm for the challenge didn’t match his own or that of the expectant audience. Electrical problems hamstrung him throughout the qualifying hour, with a lack of data feedback to his steering wheel leaving him blind for much of it.
Perez said even his brake bias settings weren’t showing up on his dash, a major handicap given the fine margins throughout qualifying.
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It’s not the way he wanted to start his campaign to become the first Mexican to win his home grand prix.
But fourth is no disaster, particularly given the fine margins splitting Red Bull Racing and Mercedes despite the relatively comfortable 0.3-seconds qualifying gap.
His way forward will be made easier by the lack of Ferrari drivers in the fight, with the Scuderia slumping to a deeply underwhelming qualifying result with limited prospects for the race.
But he’ll have to beat Verstappen, hungry to break the record for wins in a single season, and both Mercedes drivers, who are desperate for any kind of bright spot in this dreadful season to date.
It should be a tight battle for supremacy in Mexico City.
BEWARE THE POLE POSITION
There are some circuits at which pole just seems cursed. Mexico City is one of them.
Not since 2016 has the pole-getter at the Autódromo Hermanos Rodríguez won the race. In fact not since 2016 has the pole-getter even managed to convert their single-lap pace into a podium finish.
The last four races in Mexico read as a tale of woe for pole-sitters. In reverse order, they’ve been classified 15th, fourth, DNF and fourth.
Part of the poleman’s problem is that the run from the grid to the first turn is more than 800 metres. It’s the longest launch of the season — more than long enough to pick up a slipstream even in the thinner air, bunching up the field by the time everyone hits the brakes.
Last year, for example, Verstappen easily swept around the outside of pole-sitter Valtteri Bottas, who was then tipped into a spin by an errant Daniel Ricciardo, ruining both their races.
Somewhat ironically, Verstappen has been the chief beneficiary from Mexico’s cursed pole, winning three of the last four grands prix as the pole-getters have fumbled.
But the Dutchman unfazed by the vulnerability of starting at the front with only a long dash to turn 1 ahead of him, noting it’s one of his car’s key strengths.
“I think our top speed is not too bad to defend,” he said, pointing to a year-long strength of the RB18. “So we just need to focus on that, and honestly, I think if we have good race pace, it will be a good fight anyway.
“But of course we’ll try to stay ahead into turn 1.”
MERCEDES’S PACE IS GENUINE
With the possible exception of George Russell’s Hungarian Grand Prix pole position, Saturday in Mexico is the best we’ve seen of Mercedes all year.
The W13, upgraded since last weekend and finally equipped with its new front wing after some regulatory question marks, has been a consistent performer since first practice, and Lewis Hamilton topped Q1 and Q2 in a sign of intent.
The car is happiest in the high-downforce trim required in the rare air of Mexico City, and it’s more than a match for the RB18 through all of the corners. Its only real weakness is straight-line speed.
Honda has a turbo that’s more effective in the thinner atmosphere without risking overheating. It’s been a trend in recent years, and it’s paid significant dividends again this year paired with a car that’s the less draggy of the two down the straights.
A look at the telemetry on Russell’s best lap shows the Mercedes losing time down the front straight, out of turn 3 and even the short blast out of turn 7, but the gap is neutralised through each subsequent set of corners.
But he then runs wide at turn 12 and spoils his lap, leaving unclear whether he could have snatched pole. He’s certain he could have, but even on his first lap he was slower than Verstappen through the stadium section. Likely he would’ve missed out by around 0.1 seconds.
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But the point is that it took a slick lap from Verstappen to guarantee Mercedes wouldn’t get a front-row lockout. That’s enormous progress for the German marque.
So now the real question: can either car convert that pace into a race win?
The history of this race suggests it has a two-in-three chance of getting it done, with the drivers starting second and third winning four of the six races in Mexico City since the grand prix was revived.
Mercedes having two cars at its disposal at the start could prove particularly valuable. If they get good starts, Verstappen can’t defend against both.
Hamilton might feel most pleased by missing pole. The last two races have been won by the driver starting third — something the Briton will know well, having watched Verstappen easily sweep around his outside last year.
It’s the first time since the mid-season break that he’s been outqualified by Russell. The consolation might be his first win of the year.
FERRARI STUMBLES AT HIGH ALTITUDE
A high-downforce circuit like this might’ve been expected to suit Ferrari, but the SF-75 underperformed badly, with neither Carlos Sainz nor Charles Leclerc anywhere near the pace at the pointy end of qualifying.
The team’s problems stem from the high altitude and the high track temperature. It’s already a car limited by tyre overheating, and the car’s propensity slide around with a lack of downforce in the thin air just exacerbates its pre-existing problem.
But its power unit is further problemed by the lack of air density. Its entire power unit is set up around acceleration, aided by a small turbocharger that spools up rapidly. But that also means it hits its maximum capacity relatively quickly — we’ve seen this is the case even with electrical energy through the year, with the car’s acceleration ‘clipping’ on the straights as it runs out of electrical deployment.
At this altitude, the turbo needs to work harder to force pressure into the internal combustion engine. The Ferrari turbo just doesn’t have that capacity, in particular given the thin air also means less cooling.
It means the car not only lacks its usual slow-speed engine performance but also its engine performance around the lap, leaving it way out of contention.
Worse, with this being one of Mercedes’s strongest weekends so far, the 53-point gap between second and third in the constructors standings suddenly feels vulnerable, particularly given the upcoming Sao Paulo Grand Prix is also run at a high altitude.
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VALTTERI BOTTAS SUPERB IN TWO-BY-TWO GRID
A quick look at the grid shows up an obvious pattern: most teammates have qualified alongside each other, and those who haven’t aren’t far from one another, usually separated by chief rivals — the RBR cars split by the Mercedes drivers, and the McLarens separated by the Alpines.
The only exception is Valtteri Bottas, who not only qualified six places ahead of teammate Zhou Guanyu but also managed to slot his car into sixth between the Ferrari drivers.
The Alfa has been recently upgraded as it attempts to fend off Aston Martin in the battle for sixth, but that doesn’t explain the gap between teammates.
The crux of it is that this is prime Valtteri Bottas territory.
Bottas has always had a feel for low-grip conditions. Even in his Mercedes years he had a habit of being much closer to and sometimes ahead of Lewis Hamilton when the sport travelled to super-smooth racetracks. Sochi was always one of his favourites, for example, for precisely this reason.
The Finn has an instinct for not overloading the front axle, which is a chief consideration in Mexico in particular, where the aero profile of these cars tends to induce understeer. Several cars struggled with front lockups, for example, just before of the lack of aero load coupled with the lack of front grip.
At just three points ahead of Aston Martin — which unexpectedly struggled badly in qualifying, with both cars out in Q1 — it’s a valuable chance for Bottas to deal a hefty blow in the team’s fight to lock in sixth if he can cling to a top-10 spot by the chequered flag.
