The third match of a World Cup campaign often provides the answers needed for the final push.
It certainly did for Australia when it won the title in the UAE last year.
We might be quick to remember those crushing wins over Bangladesh and the West Indies, Matthew Wade’s late heroics in the semi final, and a dominant chase spearheaded by Mitch Marsh in the final.
But the only game Australia lost in the tournament, its third match against England, offered the clarity that helped produce those performances.
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Australia tinkered with its line-up, adding spinning all-rounder Ashton Agar to bolster its bowling stocks over No.3 Marsh.
The top-order promptly crumbled, and Australia was bowled out for 125 — a total England chased down with eight wickets and 50 balls remaining.
While the massive loss put Australia on the brink of elimination, it at least crystallised both its mission and what its best XI was moving forward.
On Friday, Australia needed some answers after a slow start once again.
Cruelly, those answers never came — and now it might be too late.
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Australia was due to play England in its third match again but the fixture was abandoned without a ball being bowled due to a soggy MCG outfield.
Like last year, Australia finds itself needing to at least win its final two matches against Ireland and Afghanistan handsomely, while hoping other results go its way.
Unlike last year, however, there’s now a lingering uncertainty hanging over certain players at a crucial time.
Should Aaron Finch still be playing? Is Pat Cummins suited to T20 cricket? Will Tim David be worth the gamble? Can Australia really live without Steve Smith? Is Cameron Green the wildcard we need?
We might’ve found answers to some of these questions had Australia played England on Friday but, in a washed out match, nothing was learnt.
And it could mean that Australia is now locked into its plans moving forward.
With only two matches played and two to come, it’s unlikely there’s enough time or evidence to support a bold change, such as dropping the captain, or a star bowler.
Finch was feeling the most pressure heading into the England match. Whether or not his position is under any genuine threat is unclear, but everyone would have slept easier if he was able to wind back the clock against England.
Now he heads into Monday’s match against Ireland with the scratchy innings against Sri Lanka still hanging over his head.
The England match could’ve also offered the chance to try Finch in a new role, such as in the middle-order where he played in some build-up games, and where Mark Waugh said he should move to.
Allan Border was less forgiving, however, saying Steve Smith should replace him in Australia’s XI altogether.
Nonetheless, coach Andrew McDonald strongly hinted that Finch will be going nowhere.
“He’s really important to us in terms of connecting the strategy of what we want to do, and his captaincy record in big tournaments has been pretty good,” McDonald said.
“So we feel as though that captaincy is a real benefit for us. So, we’re not prepared to shift that at this stage.”
Cummins was also facing some criticism before the England match after a lacklustre opening to the tournament, and a growing trend that’s putting him further behind Mitchell Starc and Josh Hazlewood in T20 cricket.
Waugh called for Cummins to be dropped for Cameron Green to give Australia an extra batting option without losing a capable fast bowler.
Another poor display against England might’ve tempted selectors to look closer at that option but Cummins, like Finch, never got to meet that midway moment-of-truth.
He remains a lock moving forward, while it seems unlikely that Green, or T20 specialist Nathan Ellis, will be risked in a late tournament-entry during what are effectively sudden games.
Which brings us to the other man patiently waiting for his chance; Smith.
The door is more ajar to a player of Smith’s calibre and experience but his chances of featuring are becoming less likely, too.
Australia needs to win its final two matches by big margins to stand any chance, meaning the hosts are likely to stay big-hitter heavy moving forward.
Some felt there was a possibility Smith could replace David against England, but with a greater premium on boundaries now, the latter has a better chance at retaining his spot.
McDonald said that Smith is still being “discussed regularly”, but the “surface and opposition” will have to allign for him to earn a call-up.
Furthermore, the matches against Ireland and Afghanistan have the potential to give false readings and reinforce selections.
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Ireland and Afghanistan are far from easy beats and could well cause a dramatic upset. But the reality is that runs against the Irish attack aren’t the same as runs against Trent Boult and Tim Southee. Skittling the Afghan top order is different to toppling Jos Butter and Dawid Malan.
Either way, Australia’s bed is now likely made for the final two matches, barring any more rain-affected matches which could see everything go out the window.
Despite being short on answers at this advanced stage, Australia will still draw confidence from an escape act last year when it was in a similar, albeit slightly better, situation.
“We feel as though we’ve been there before,” McDonald said.
He added: “First and foremost we’ve got to improve certain facets of our game and do it throughout the tournament.
“We want to get back to the cricket we know we’re capable of and we probably haven’t done that yet. There’s still plenty of improvement in the group.”
