In the words of Back to the Future’s Biff Tannen, “just get in the car, butthead”.
In a bombshell revelation exclusive to this masthead, we have obtained rugby league’s equivalent of the seminal sporting almanac Biff used to make millions and run amok – a rolled gold, surefire ticket to predicting every single result of the 2025 NRL season.
Or, in a not so bombshell, exclusive revelation, we’ve borrowed Sports Illustrated’s annual week-by-week projection of every NFL franchise’s season, and adapted it for our own purposes.
Mad with power? Yes. Method to the madness? Also, yes. Before ploughing into all 213 NRL games this season, each team was given a rating out of 20, with a boost for home games and a slight decrease for games on five-day turnarounds.
Teams were docked a few points for State of Origin-affected rounds based on how many representative players they’re expected to be missing.
Those ratings then determined the results of each match-up across the season and the final ladder at the end of this article, which is right after the Tigers section. Which is in no way a spoiler alert.
That hype about the Broncos? Yeah, we’re buying it. So much so that a pretty favourable early start to the year will have them on top of the ladder after two months. If they can keep Reece Walsh, Adam Reynolds and Payne Haas on the paddock alongside Ben Hunt, then really, considering they face four bottom eight teams from last year and a very different-looking Roosters outfit twice in the first seven weeks, why not?
Fossil fuel: Brisbane’s Ben Hunt and Adam Reynolds will be the oldest NRL halves pairing in nearly 30 years.Credit: Dion Georgopoulos
The Origin period (rounds 13-19) could easily toss up a few more losses depending on how many Broncos are picked. But despite a tough run home that includes Melbourne – who Brisbane only beat once in a blue moon – twice, we’re predicting a very rosy start to Michael Maguire’s Red Hill tenure.
No sneaking under the radar for Canterbury this year, not with a six-game winning streak on the cards from Magic Round. Especially when you consider the line-up opposite them – the Titans, Raiders, Roosters, Dolphins, Eels and Rabbitohs is certainly a winnable run for Cameron Ciraldo’s side.
That last month of the regular season though, well, the Dogs will certainly be ready for finals footy. Four games against last year’s top four (including the previously mentioned, very-different Roosters) is a tough ask, but we’re tipping Canterbury to be in the thick of the play-offs again.
It was tough to get a read on the Cowboys for the first half of 2024 before they kicked on as a genuine top-eight side, and it’s more of the same in store this season given a tough start featuring Manly, Brisbane and Penrith.
The back-half of the Origin period will give them a wobble or two considering Tom Dearden, Reece Robson, Reuben Cotter and possibly Jeremiah Nanai won’t be around. But we’re seeing just enough in North Queensland, and the final-round bye, to have them sneaking into the top-eight.
Time to strap in at Redcliffe, Kristian Woolf’s first campaign following on from Wayne Bennett is going to be a bumpy ride.
How large will the ghost of Wayne Bennett loom at Redcliffe?Credit: Getty Images
The Dolphins could of course prove us ‘experts’ as anything but. They have defied plenty of predictions already in their short history.
But there’s only a few holes in that ugly, early seven-game losing streak we’ve churned out and their wider squad depth again looms large. That said, the wooden spoon favouritism with some bookmakers seems a bit much.
Impressive in the trials, no doubt. But do the Dragons have the halves and forward depth to truly shake up the NRL?
This computer says no, and welcomes its place upon Shane Flanagan’s dartboard. Again, making note of strong pre-season showings, there were periods of 2024 where Valentine Holmes’ edge defence was a rugby league lifetime away from his best, and Damien Cook battled for impact playing behind a struggling South Sydney forward pack.
For the sake of long-suffering Red V fans, here’s hoping we’ve got it very, very wrong. But that back half of our predicted 2025 season is nothing short of brutal, with just two Dragons wins from round 13 onwards.
Life under Jason Ryles in the Golden West? Not too shabby by our estimations, especially early on. Parramatta have shaken up their playing ranks and their game-play is expected to follow suit, with Mitchell Moses and Dylan Brown charged with making full use of speedsters Zac Lomax and Josh Addo-Carr out wide.
Josh Addo-Carr in Eels colours for the first time.Credit: Getty Images
Despite the early optimism, the always memorable Easter Monday loss to the Tigers should burst any blue and gold bubble. If that doesn’t, then the predicted one win from eight games in the middle of the year will definitely do the trick when the Eels play Penrith (twice), Canterbury, Brisbane and Melbourne. All-in-all though, a passable rebuilding year for Ryles.
What to make of Newcastle, three-time finalists from the past four seasons? On paper, they’ve punched above their weight throughout Adam O’Brien’s tenure. They’ll always be a chance of doing so while ever Kalyn Ponga is on their books.
But the uncertainty in the halves (Fletcher Sharpe does look good at five-eighth though, doesn’t he?) and skinny front-row stocks has us leaning toward a lean year for the Knights. Those last six weeks are tough on the eyes.
The perennial defending champs have lost Jarome Luai, James Fisher-Harris, Sunia Turuva … and still look a class above the rest of the league bar the Storm.
We’ve pencilled them in for a loss against Melbourne, a defeat to the Broncos in Brisbane during Magic Round, a round 12 loss to Newcastle when they’ll be missing all their Origin players, and a whopping 21 wins that’ll have them on the brink of winning the minor premiership. The more things change…
Look away, Green Machine fans – this year could be a tough one. The Raiders just missed the finals in 2024 but have lost more players than they’ve gained since then, and according to the bookies, they’ve leapt past the Dragons in wooden spoon favouritism the past couple of weeks.
We’ve predicted an early losing streak that will unravel Ricky Stuart’s side. That said, a crop of rising stars led by five-eighth Ethan Strange could leave us with egg on our faces if they take a leap this season.
This could be a team that we and the bookmakers are overestimating in 2025.
The Chooks are one of the game’s modern powerhouses but have lost the likes of Joseph-Aukuso Suaalii, Jared Warea-Hargreaves, Luke Keary, Joseph Manu and Terrell May this season, plus Sam Walker and Brandon Smith to injuries to start the year. We’ve cautiously got them making the eight anyway, thanks to a decent start and a strong run through the Origin period with former NSW skipper James Tedesco on club duty now during that stretch.
A reverse-Roosters if you like, considering almost all of their recent campaigns have played out in the complete opposite fashion.
A four-game winning streak against the Cowboys, Warriors, Raiders and Eels to start the season sets up a solid campaign for Manly, who we also have finishing well with wins over the Dolphins, Dragons and Warriors in what is a very cushy finish to their season from round 21 onwards.
Their title chances will once again likely hinge on the hamstrings of Tom Trbojevic, but they’ve got enough talent across the park to book a finals spot despite a tough run in the middle of the season.
Cronulla have finished second, sixth, fourth and fourth in the past four years and we’ve got them in the top four once again.
Addin Fonua-Blake is a great signing up front, and Braydon Trindall and Nicho Hynes (presumably free of Origin distractions this year) have had yet another pre-season to hone their promising scrumbase combo. After a couple of early defeats we have Cronulla reeling off seven straight wins, and matching that winning streak in the back half of the season. Up, up.
Addin Fonua-Blake: the missing puzzle piece for Cronulla?Credit: NRL Imagery
With just a couple of defeats across the entire season, Melbourne pip Penrith for the minor premiership in our projections. Our tips might prove overly generous for the top sides, but there’s no reason to think Craig Bellamy’s side will go backwards this year with the arrival of promising big man Stefano Utoikamanu offsetting the retirement of veteran prop Christian Welch.
They’ll be fresh from a bye for their round three grand final re-match against Penrith, and finish the year with another blockbuster against Brisbane.
A round 15 victory over an Origin-depleted Melbourne team is the high point of the season we’ve projected for the Gold Coast, along with wins over Queensland rivals the Dolphins and Cowboys.
We’ve got them finishing the year fairly strongly but a tough stretch from round 8 to round 14 is set to derail any finals hopes before they get off the ground.
After the departures of Shaun Johnson, Tohu Harris and Addin Fonua-Blake, we’re tipping a long year for the Kiwi side. James Fisher-Harris bolsters the forward pack but his presence is not be enough to prevent the predicted losing streak that leaves the Warriors with just two points from the bye after seven weeks.
But following that slow start we’ve got them finishing fairly strongly, with three wins in four games from round 19 to 22 and five wins in eight matches during the final stretch.
Signs of life for Benji Marshall and the Tigers, who look more than capable of springing a few surprises with Jarome Luai pulling the strings.
Jarome Luai has arrived in Tiger Town.Credit: Steven Siewert
We’ve got them starting the year with a win over Newcastle and toppling Sydney rivals Parramatta, St George Illawarra, South Sydney and Manly along the way but falling just short of a finals berth. It’s not quite a return to the fabled days of ninth-place finishes, but it’s not far off either.
