It shouldn’t be that difficult. Real Madrid are the world’s most successful club, the reigning LaLiga and European champions. Vinícius Júnior is one of their brightest stars, last year’s Ballon d’Or runner-up and FIFA’s The Best winner. His goals helped Madrid win two of the last three Champions League finals. So why is there nonstop speculation that Vinícius, who’s only 24, is set to leave Madrid for the Saudi Pro League? And — with the forward’s contract at the Bernabéu due to expire in June 2027 — just how likely is that outcome?
Listen to Vinícius, and there seems to be no doubt that it’s Real Madrid for life. “My next step is improving my game, continuing to develop, and helping the biggest club in the world,” the Brazil international said last month. “I dreamed of getting here. That’s my dream, to think big, and win more trophies in this shirt.”
Vinícius passed a major milestone in January, becoming one of only 23 players to score 100 or more goals for Madrid. “It’s important for me to be a part of this club’s history,” he said. “Let’s hope I carry on here for many more years. Ronaldo Nazario, Cristiano [Ronaldo] … they’re players who defined an era at this club. Let’s hope I can follow in their footsteps.”
Those don’t sound like the words of a player who’s planning an imminent departure. And speaking to Brazilian TV after Madrid’s 3-2 Champions League win at Manchester City on Feb. 11, for which he was named man of the match, Vinícius went even further. “It’s always exciting to talk to Real Madrid about my renewal,” he said. “I have a contract until 2027, but I’ve always said I want to play here for a long time… God willing, in the coming days, the negotiations can be resolved.”
Coach Carlo Ancelotti has been keen to spread a message of calm, too. “As far as I’m aware — and I have direct information from the player — he’s very happy here,” Ancelotti said last month. “They’re individual decisions. But I think he’s thinking about choosing glory.”
It’s a nice line, with an implicit follow-up: glory, over endless wealth. But that’s exactly what you’d expect Ancelotti to say. And nobody genuinely expects contract talks to be finalised as quickly as Vinícius enthusiastically suggested in Manchester.
The words of Saudi Pro League CEO Omar Mugharbel, speaking last month during the Spanish Supercopa in Jeddah, warned against dismissing the idea of Vinícius choosing the Saudi Pro League. “We don’t dream,” Mugharbel told Marca. “It’s a matter of time, and negotiations.”
The Saudi interest is real, and so is Vinícius’ willingness to entertain the prospect, a position that strengthens his leverage in talks with Madrid. Those negotiations look like they may become a high-stakes arm wrestling match between player and club.
Additional reporting by Rodrigo Faez and Gustavo Hofman
Sources told ESPN that Vinícius also suspects that both Bellingham and Mbappé will receive more support in the pursuit of future awards like the Ballon d’Or. In the 2024 men’s ranking, the trio finished second (Vinícius), third (Bellingham) and sixth (Mbappé). The votes for Madrid players among the Ballon d’Or panel were split; so too, thinks Vinícius, are the club’s loyalties. Vinícius loves playing for the club, but sources said he wants to feel valued — that Madrid appreciates what he has achieved and what he can still achieve.
There are other issues, too: the near-weekly hostile reception that Vinícius faces from opposition fans in Spain, which has — all too frequently — involved racist abuse. Vinícius has bravely led the fight to tackle Spanish football’s racism problem, but he has also admitted that the incidents leave him with “less and less desire to play.” The attraction of a fresh start in a new league is obvious. But there was no realistic alternative until the Saudi Pro League came calling.
How tempting is the offer from Saudi Arabia?
ESPN first reported on Saudi interest in Vinícius in August last year, with a source saying that the Saudi Public Investment Fund (PIF) had approached Vinícius’ representatives. An annual salary of up to €350m had been mentioned, and the idea was for Vinícius to become one of the faces of the Saudis’ 2034 World Cup project. His likely destination was Al Ahli. It was a deal that wouldn’t just make Vinícius the highest-paid footballer in the world; it would make him the highest-paid athlete in the history of sports. Another source later spoke of a potential five-year, €200m-per-season deal, in a country with no income tax.
Early reports in the Spanish media claimed that Vinícius had rejected the approach, and he was committed to staying at Madrid. But a source told ESPN that was not the case. Instead, Vinícius’ decision was not to take any decision at all. He had postponed making a judgment on his long-term future until the end of the 2024-25 season. Another factor was whether or not Vinícius would win last year’s Ballon d’Or. Madrid and Vinícius believed that he would, although their confidence proved to be unfounded.
The Saudi interest didn’t end there. Sources told ESPN that the Saudis got back in touch with Vinícius’ camp in December, keen to keep lines of communication open. No concrete proposal was made, but the message was: don’t forget about us. There have been no new developments since December, and a source told ESPN that Vinícius’ agents had been irritated by the lack of a formal offer. At present, Vinícius is closer to staying than going, the source said.
Would Madrid agree to a transfer? And for what kind of fee?
Vinícius’ €1 billion release clause is prohibitive, even for the PIF. That means that if the Saudis want to secure the player before his contract expires in 2027, an agreement would have to be reached with Madrid on a transfer fee. Last summer, when they were made aware of Saudi interest, the club’s stated position was that Vinícius was not available for transfer, and they would not negotiate below that €1bn clause. But Vinícius’ camp felt that Madrid might be more open to that possibility in 2025.
Publicly, the club still treats Vinícius in a manner befitting one of its franchise players. They went above and beyond in their support of him in the Ballon d’Or debate, boycotting the Paris ceremony in protest when they discovered that Manchester City’s Rodri had beaten their man to the award. And Ancelotti continues to praise him at every opportunity. “People forget that with Vinícius we won the Champions League in Paris [in 2022] and in London [in 2024],” Ancelotti said last month. “He’s unquestionable as a player.”
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The same could be said of former captain Sergio Ramos, who unceremoniously left in 2021 after his delayed response to a contract offer led to it being withdrawn. There was Raphaël Varane in 2021 and Casemiro in 2022, both signing for Manchester United for substantial fees. Even Karim Benzema‘s surprise departure in 2023, joining Al Ittihad on a free transfer while he was the reigning Ballon d’Or, turned out OK: Madrid won a LaLiga and Champions League double the following season, with no need for a first-choice center-forward.
So precedent suggests that if Madrid were to let Vinícius go — for a world-record fee — they’d be fine. It would even mean Mbappé could play in his preferred position on the left of the attack.
All of this means that what once seemed unthinkable — Vinícius Junior, arguably the world’s best player, leaving Real Madrid while still approaching his peak — has become a real prospect. And even if he does end up agreeing to a lucrative new deal at Madrid — which on balance, is now the most likely scenario — the Saudi interest means that the club will have to work hard for it.
It’s the ultimate power move; to say he’d love to stay, but he’s also being offered the biggest contract in sports history, and then ask if there is anything more that Madrid can do.
No wonder Vinícius has been in no hurry to renew. He’s holding all the cards.
