Predictions can be fraught with danger, but we can make the most informed projections possible.
With that in mind, we’ve had a crack at guessing which players are in for big years and how your club might fare, as well as explaining why some are under more pressure than others.
There will be plenty of players, teams and coaches under pressure in 2025.Credit: Stephen Kiprillis
Take the Western Bulldogs. Though they have only one losing season in a decade under Luke Beveridge, he is out of contract at season’s end and needs a strong campaign.
At the other end of the spectrum, the only pressure on reigning premiers Brisbane will be trying to capitalise on a great list – but winning last year’s flag was a major accomplishment.
Matthew Nicks enters his sixth season in charge contracted until the end of next year, but will struggle to retain his job if Adelaide miss finals again. The Crows have four home games in the first six rounds, and must take advantage – if not, things could get ugly. They need more from the likes of Riley Thilthorpe, Josh Rachele, Chayce Jones and Luke Pedlar, while recruits Alex Neal-Bullen, Isaac Cumming and James Peatling have big roles to play.
The Lions have a decent shot at an extended unbeaten run if they negotiate their opening two clashes with Geelong (home) and Sydney (away). Levi Ashcroft might debut in round zero, and ACL victims Tom Doedee and Keidean Coleman are virtual recruits. Young guns Will Ashcroft, Kai Lohmann, Darcy Wilmot, Jaspa Fletcher and Logan Morris should have even more responsibility in 2025. The Lions’ depth is the envy of the league.
The Blues barely qualified for September last year; in their elimination final loss to Brisbane, they were 10 goals down at one stage. There are some tricky early contests, but none they cannot win – and they will be desperate to make the top four to heighten their flag chances. Draftee Jagga Smith is a plug-and-play onballer, but keeping big guns Charlie Curnow, Patrick Cripps, Sam Walsh, Harry McKay and Jacob Weitering healthy will be critical.
The Magpies effectively put all their chips in when they traded for Dan Houston, a year after acquiring Lachie Schultz. Schultz did not feature in the Copeland Trophy top 10, so they will expect better from him, and need Houston to deliver, too, to justify giving up their first-round pick again. Last season was a humbling experience for Collingwood after winning the flag in 2023, and the list’s age profile demands they turn things around.
Essendon won 11 games in each of Brad Scott’s first two years as coach, but were in a position to perform better. The Bombers’ top-end quality behind Zach Merrett is not as good as others. It is hard to envision them improving much unless several of Nate Caddy, Elijah Tsatas, Nik Cox, Archie Perkins, Zach Reid, Alwyn Davey jnr, Ben Hobbs and Isaac Kako become very good. Can Peter Wright be an impact player again? Will Sam Draper and Nick Bryan play together? There are more questions than answers.
The Dockers boast a wonderful blend of experience and youth, plus stars and role players, while the addition of Shai Bolton made the list stronger. It would be disappointing if they missed finals for a third season in a row, but they are built to be good for the long term. Fremantle need Josh Treacy and Jye Amiss to stand up again, but their success starts in a stacked midfield, from Caleb Serong to Andrew Brayshaw, Hayden Young and super-veteran Nat Fyfe.
The arrival of Bailey Smith and Jack Martin after Tom Hawkins’ retirement were the latest moves in Geelong’s on-the-run evolution. List gurus Andrew Mackie and Stephen Wells continue to mock AFL gravity, and we can expect plenty more from Holmes, Shannon Neale, Conway, Tanner Bruhn, Jhye Clark, Lawson Humphries, Ollie Dempsey, Ollie Henry and co. There are few reasons to believe the Cats can’t contend for another premiership.
There is reason to be bullish about Damien Hardwick’s Suns, but we have been here before. They are rich with young talent, which is a blessing and curse for their 2025 fortunes. Gold Coast will hope more of that group transform into key contributors, just like Bodhi Uwland and Mac Andrew last year. The Suns’ midfield is excellent and deep, but they cannot afford injuries to their key-position stocks if they want to finally play in September.
Coach Adam Kingsley is largely unfussed about the exits of Harry Perryman, Isaac Cumming and James Peatling, and they are far more replaceable than another ex-Giant, Jeremy Cameron. Conor Stone, Jacob Wehr and untried first-round draftees Phoenix Gothard and James Leake are among GWS’ options. The Giants have plenty of star power, including Jesse Hogan, Toby Greene, Sam Taylor and Tom Green, and should play finals again – potentially contending for a premiership.
Sam Mitchell’s team has a lot of youth and development ahead, but recruiting Tom Barrass and Josh Battle adds another layer of experience. Throw in James Sicily, Jarman Impey, Blake Hardwick, Sam Frost, Mitch Lewis, James Worpel, Karl Amon, Conor Nash, Mabior Chol and veterans Luke Breust and Jack Gunston, and they are not lacking in that area. The other half of Hawthorn’s senior side will determine if they not only make the finals again but are major players.
What looks like a friendly fixture to begin the season is perfect for a club desperate to put its disastrous 2024 in the rearview mirror. Simon Goodwin has the assets to win another flag if he can somehow unite everyone again. That begins and almost ends with Christian Petracca and Clayton Oliver. If those two are happy and back at their best, the Demons are dangerous. If the rest of their high-profile gang fires, and young guns such as Trent Rivers and Jacob van Rooyen emerge, anything could happen.
The streak of five seasons in the bottom two must end in 2025. The league and North fans need this club to climb at least a few ladder rungs this year – and there is reason for hope. The kids are good, particularly Harry Sheezel, the injured-again George Wardlaw, Colby McKercher, Zane Duursma, Finn O’Sullivan and Jackson Archer, but they need to show results. The experienced recruits should help that process, but it’s a wait-and-see situation.
There is no doubting the Power’s top-end talent, particularly midfield guns Zak Butters, Connor Rozee and Horne-Francis, but it was an underwhelming September from Ken Hinkley’s men. The injury-related doubts around Todd Marshall’s future don’t help, and there are still questions about the back line. That said, Port should still play finals, and it would be foolish to write them off as contenders with their Jack Lukosius-bolstered firepower in attack.
The Tigers lost key contributors Daniel Rioli, Dustin Martin, Shai Bolton, Liam Baker, Dylan Grimes and Jack Graham in the off-season after finishing last in 2024. They had seven draft picks inside the top 30 – headlined by No.1 Sam Lalor – and will hope some of that group can make an instant impact. Players such as Tyler Sonsie, Judson Clarke, Josh Gibcus, Tom Brown, Sam Banks, Maurice Rioli jnr, Thomson Dow and Kane McAuliffe should have more responsibility.
There is upside on St Kilda’s list, but they don’t match rivals for star power and that’s one of the reasons they are often mired in mediocrity. Mattaes Philippou’s pre-season injury setback does not help that cause because he has as much potential as any Saint. There is also lots to like about Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera, Darcy Wilson and Mitch Owens, while they used top-10 picks on Tobie Travaglia and Alix Tauru – but the mid-tier group must go to another level.
It will be fascinating to see what Dean Cox introduces in the post-John Longmire era as he tries to do what his predecessor could not with this particular list. The Swans have the talent, as their grand final appearances in two of the past three seasons prove. But they fell way short on both occasions and have the distraction this time of Chad Warner’s contract negotiations. Warner, Isaac Heeney, Errol Gulden, Nick Blakey and Tom Papley have huge roles to play.
The rebuilding Eagles are effectively at ground zero with a new coach and having traded Tom Barrass and Jack Darling. There are still some premiership veterans around, but they are mostly in the twilight of their careers and more valuable as mentors and standard-bearers. West Coast would love to see the likes of Harley Reid, Elijah Hewett, Reuben Ginbey, Brady Hough, Harry Edwards and Campbell Chesser step up, which is more important than pure wins at this stage.
This season is a crossroads moment for Beveridge and the Bulldogs. He has been a mighty coach for a decade at the Kennel, but there is an expiry date for everyone – and we will find out if that is 2025 for Beveridge. There remains plenty of talent and ability on this list, from Marcus Bontempelli at the top to their tall timber and smalls, as well as a good mix of youth and experience, but that is why the Dogs’ powerbrokers want to see better results.
Keep up to date with the best AFL coverage in the country. Sign up for the Real Footy newsletter.
