On Tuesday, Carlton announced two new re-signings.
But neither was the man who looms as one of the most talked-about free agents of 2025.
Tom De Koning was the game’s most influential player during a purple patch midway through last season.Credit: Getty Images
Though the Blues have now locked away Adam Saad for one season and Adam Cerra for five, Tom De Koning remains the big-ticket item, just 18 months after fervent speculation about his future subsided when he signed a two-year deal.
He is likely to attract a bigger financial offer from a rival club than any Carlton can responsibly put in front of him.
That contract would be long-term, but more likely to sit in the same $800-900,000 per year territory the Bulldogs were prepared to pay Tim English if he stays than the million-dollar-plus deals he might find on his table if he wanted to move.
Carlton want to retain De Koning, and two competition sources with knowledge of the matter, who weren’t prepared to speak publicly while negotiations were ongoing, were confident he preferred to remain a Blue.
The club played hard last year to keep their salary cap in shape to deal properly with the likes of De Koning.
Matt Owies, Matt Kennedy and Jack Carroll departed and Lewis Young was encouraged to test the market as they held their nerve during the trade period. Rather than recruiting big names such as Dan Houston, they sought talented first-rounder Jagga Smith, who is on a standard contract, in the draft.
But the Blues know they have to be sensible in the offer they make as they project what type of player he will become in the next five years.
Despite his match-changing ability, that’s unlikely to be as valuable as All-Australian midfielders and key forwards who are tomorrow’s real million-dollar men (albeit that Harry Perryman’s eventual mega-deal with Collingwood blew up many previous estimates of what the market will pay free agents).
De Koning has become a bona fide ruckman who was close to the most influential player in the competition for three games either side of the Blues’ mid-season bye last year when he claimed 23 coaches’ votes before injury derailed his season.
Jacob Weitering signed a six-year extension with Carlton in October.Credit: Simon Schluter
De Koning can be an aerial threat up forward, but it’s not where his value lies – he has kicked only one bag of three goals and never reached a double-digit season tally in any of his six years.
He is an outstanding tap ruckman but has averaged just 0.5 goals a game in 2024, fewer than Melbourne’s Max Gawn (0.52), English (0.61), St Kilda’s Rowan Marshall (0.65) and Bomber Sam Draper (0.69).
Even though it’s hard taking marks inside Charlie Curnow and Harry McKay’s forward 50, that puts him in the dangerous category for list managers who don’t want to overpay for a ruckman. It’s almost conventional wisdom now that apart from the exceptional Gawn, modern premiership teams don’t contain ruckmen with long, fat contracts.
De Koning can command a higher price either by joining another club or by matching the Bulldogs’ Sam Darcy (1.81), the retired Joe Daniher (2.15) and Fremantle’s Luke Jackson (0.91) as a forward-ruck. But that will only happen this season if either McKay or Curnow are out injured, and De Koning delays signing a new deal until the season is under way.
As a free agent De Koning will still appeal to previous suitors St Kilda and Geelong and he would be considered as one of several possible replacements for Daniher at the Brisbane Lions.
The Cats, home to his brother Sam (who is also out of contract), shape as the one club that could compete with Carlton for De Koning’s attention on issues other than money. But after two years of finals, he seems more likely to stay this time than he was in 2023.
“I love it here. Growing up playing with a bunch of these boys since I got drafted and we’ve all kind of stuck together,” De Koning said pre-Christmas.
Carlton will rely on that loyalty and the home comforts that come with being a Blue to retain him rather than entering into a bidding war with a club that has cash to splash.
De Koning sits behind Patrick Cripps, Curnow, McKay, Jacob Weitering and Sam Walsh – who is out of contract at the end of 2026 – in the Blues’ pecking order but he remains a valuable and highly rated asset.
Carlton would love to get him signed, as list manager Nick Austin indicated to AFL Media in October. But from De Koning’s perspective, there is no reason to rush. His value will remain stable regardless of form, but good form will increase his price.
If the Blues see De Koning reaching Gawn’s status, they can put a dent in the salary cap; otherwise they must hold their line and let him make a call.
