Explained: How Irish upset has given Australia a shock World Cup lifeline ahead of must-win match

Explained: How Irish upset has given Australia a shock World Cup lifeline ahead of must-win match

England’s shock defeat to Ireland has opened up the group stages in the T20 World Cup.

Just days after Australia suffered a hammering from trans-Tasman neighbours New Zealand to be left skating on thin ice for the rest of the tournament, England lost to minnows Ireland via the Duckworth-Lewis Method as rain continues to play havoc on the T20 World Cup.

It means Friday’s crunch match between the Ashes foes looms as a must-win match, with the loser likely to miss out on the top two qualification for the semi-finals.

Australian players David Warner and Steve Smith were two that were transfixed to the live coverage of Wednesday evening’s match between England and Ireland.

Cricket.com.au reports Warner watched the match unfold via the in-flight Wi-Fi on their plane trip from Perth to Melbourne while Steve Smith watched the match via the team manager’s phone as they boarded their team bus.

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What they watched left the door open for their own World Cup aspirations, with England’s defeat meaning Australia’s destiny is very much in their own hands.

Australia’s 89 run defeat on Saturday had meant their net run-rate had taken a hammering.

Captain Aaron Finch was one of a number of players who looked agitated on Tuesday as Sri Lanka’s innings built, with South Africa’s World Cup fortunes from a year earlier in the forefront of their minds.

Last year, the Proteas lost just one match (a first group match loss to Australia) but missed the finals despite winning the rest of their matches because of their inferior net run-rate.

As such, Australia was desperate to get the job done against Sri Lanka and in part explains Finch’s frustrations in not being able to hit the ball cleanly in Perth.

Their NRR of -1.555 still remains the lowest of the five teams to have won a game in their group so far.

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Australia’s inclement weather could however continue to have just as big a say on the competition as the play itself.

As Irish skipper Andrew Balbirnie said, “The way Moeen (Ali) was playing I was probably worried if they got another ball in.”

Ultimately, Ireland won after being five runs ahead on the DLS when rain forced an abrupt ending to play as England’s middle order mounted a fightback.

New Zealand, too, had their match abandoned against Afghanistan without a ball being bowled.

It means New Zealand are just one point of the chasing pack in Group 1 on three points, with Sri Lanka, England, Ireland and Australia on two points.

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Ireland’s upset win has them firmly in the mix but given their historic form, it is unlikely they will beat Australia and New Zealand.

Indeed, CricViz has predicted Ireland have just a 12 per cent chance of qualifying for the semi-finals with New Zealand (55 per cent) and Australia (44 per cent) marginally ahead of England (41) and Sri Lanka (36) making the final four.

Men’s T20 World Cup 2022

Australia squad: Ashton Agar, Pat Cummins, Tim David, Aaron Finch (c), Cameron Green, Josh Hazlewood, Mitchell Marsh, Glenn Maxwell, Kane Richardson, Steve Smith, Mitchell Starc, Marcus Stoinis, Matthew Wade, David Warner, Adam Zampa

Australia’s fixtures

Oct 22: Lost to New Zealand by 89 runs

Oct 25: Beat Sri Lanka by seven wickets

Oct 28: v England, MCG, 7pm AEDT

Oct 31: v Ireland, Gabba, 7pm AEDT

Nov 4: v Afghanistan, Adelaide Oval, 7pm AEDT