Things are flying for the Wallabies, right? Any victory over the old enemy, England, at Twickenham will have that effect, let alone one secured by an 84th minute match-winner.
Suddenly, the dark clouds of 2023 have parted, your John Howard tracksuit is out of mothballs and the prospect of Grand Slam tour remains well and truly alive. Particularly after the Wallabies moved down to Cardiff for game two against Wales, who are in a state of crisis.
As the Wallabies bus pulled into their hotel near Cardiff Castle on Sunday, just across town Wales were on their way to losing to Fiji at Principality Stadium. It was their tenth straight loss – the equal worst stretch of losses in the professional era – and has coach Warren Gatland under heavy fire from a growing number of critics.
“It cannot continue like this,” former Wales star Dan Biggar said in commentary. “You can’t go 11, 12, 13 losses on the spin without some serious questions being asked.”
The inference from Biggar being that Australia, after downing England, will duly deliver Wales another loss on Monday morning (AEDT).
The Wallabies celebrate with the Ella Mobbs Cup after their victory.Credit: Getty Images
You’d assume all of this would be music to the ears of Wallabies fans. But if they’re seasoned enough, Wallabies fans will be wiping the brow nervously amid all this positivity.
The dread is borne out of the Wallabies’ tendency to be at their most vulnerable immediately after a great win. Time and again, the Wallabies have followed up a stirring victory with a dispiriting defeat. Backing up has proved an elusive art.
During the past 10 years, the Wallabies have only won two (or more) consecutive Tests on nine occasions. On a further 19 occasions, the Wallabies recorded just a single win before losing the following Test match.
All smiles after Max Jorgensen’s try.Credit: Getty Images
Some of that record can be put down to the quality of the opposition in the Rugby Championship, but when narrowed down to Spring Tours, the Wallabies have only registered consecutive wins in the north twice, in 2016 and 2017.
In the past five years, the swing between high and low swing has even grown extreme. In 2019, the Wallabies beat New Zealand in Perth then lost 36-0 a week later (a point shy of the record), and in 2022, Australia beat Argentina one week and then lost by a record margin the next week.
And who can forget just 67 days ago, when the Wallabies won in La Plata and then conceded a record 67 points a week later in Santa Fe?
Argentina’s Joaquin Oviedo runs with the ball to score a try against Australia in Santa Fe.Credit: AP
Not Schmidt. So little wonder the Wallabies coach was trying to keep a lid on all that dangerous feelgood at the weekend. After a rare display of toothy grins and backslaps on the field at Twickenham, Schmidt was quickly back to his composed self soon after talking to media, and when talking to the players in the sheds.
The message was simple: enjoy the win in this room, and bank the belief from it. Then leave it behind.
“You celebrate the win after the game and then your preparation starts straight after the game for the next week ahead,” lock Jeremy Williams said on Monday. “It’s on to our next job.”
Centre Len Ikitau conceded the Wallabies tendency to yo-yo had “always been the case” since he debuted in 2021.
“So, for us, it’s just being consistent, making sure that we’re backing up a good performance with another good performance,” Ikitau said. “And I feel like we can do that this week against a tough Wales side.”
For once, the Wallabies will go into a Test match as the settled, in-form combatant.
Fiji players celebrate after beating Wales in Cardiff.Credit: AP
Wales haven’t won in more than 400 days, dating back to a win over Georgia in the pool stages of the 2023 Rugby World Cup. A week earlier, Wales defeated a rudderless Australia by a record 40-6 margin.
But the Wallabies contributed to two of Wales’ 10 losses in July, with consecutive wins in the first two Tests under Schmidt. The win in London at the weekend – which saw the Wallabies climb a spot in the rankings to 9th – also saw Schmidt’s win rate become an even 50% – five wins from 10 Tests.
Even that figure has put Gatland under pressure. Since returning as Test coach at the end of 2022, Gatland has only won six of 22 Tests.
The Kiwi argues he is bringing through a crop of youngsters after losing a crew of experienced players last year, and said he wasn’t fussed about the media focussing all the guns on him, and not the team.
Wales are in siege mode – and the Wallabies are favourites. Nervous yet?
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