Flemington is gearing up for its third group 1 race day of the Melbourne Cup Carnival on Thursday for the running of the Oaks.
Racing reporter Danny Russell has tipped Treasurethe Moment, while form analyst Tim Habel is backing Too Darn Discreet. They comb through the Oaks day program to deliver you their best bets.
Treasurethe Moment wins on Victoria Derby day at Flemington.Credit: Getty Images
Flemington Oaks day
First race: 12.40pm
The Oaks: 5.10pm
Track: Good 4.
Rail: Out five metres.
Pattern: The rail moves out from the 2m position on Cup Day to 5m, which could prove significant as runners closest to the rail had an advantage on Cup Day. Cooler weather and the rail move should make a surface fair to all.
Weather: Cloudy, medium chance of showers, top of 21.
Race eight: $1m group 1 Oaks (2500m), 5.10pm
The favourite: The best lead-up race to the Oaks has traditionally been the group 2 Wakeful Stakes (2000m) at Flemington on Saturday. Treasurethe Moment could not have been more impressive, running strongly to the line to beat Powers Of Opal by almost two lengths. The key now is to stay the extra 500m of the race.
The threats: Too Darn Lizzie has been super impressive, winning her past two starts on soft tracks. If the Dan O’Sullivan filly can transfer that form to a firmer track on Thursday she will be a great chance. Powers Of Opal was strong to the line in the Wakeful, but needs to make up two lengths on the favourite – she has an extra 500m to do so. Harlem Queen brings strong Sydney form into the race, having run fourth to the Derby favourite, El Castello, last start in the group 1 Champion Stakes (2000m).
The roughie: If the John Sargent-trained Inevitable Truth can roll forward and turn the race into a true test of stamina, she might run into a place.
jockey Michael Dee rides Too Darn Discreet to win at Caulfield Racecourse last month.Credit: Getty Images
Danny Russell’s tips
Oaks tips: 1. Treasurethe Moment, 2. Harlem Queen, 3. Powers Of Opal, 4. Too Darn Discreet
The verdict: The extra distance is always the query in the Oaks. But Treasurethe Moment was a comfortable winner in the Wakeful and that is always the best pointer. Wary of Sydney runner Harlem Queen, who brings a different form line.
Trainer Paul Preusker, pictured with jockey Jordan Childs, has some handy horses running on Oaks day.Credit: Getty Images
Best bet: Poison Chalice (Race nine, No.11) – An exciting Paul Preusker gelding on the way up. He probably would have won the Crystal Mile if not for bad luck. Drawn wide, but that is not a big concern as Damian Lane can go forward or sit back on this guy.
Next best: Treasurethe Moment (Race eight, No.1) – Trusting what we saw in the Wakeful Stakes. This filly looks exciting, and expecting her to frank that form.
Roughie: Torranzino (Race six, No.12) – In an open Country Final, this is another exciting Paul Preusker galloper who gets in with a nice weight (55kg) and has gun hoop James McDonald on board. A major factor is that most of the key chances have drawn wide.
Oaks Day quaddie: 1st leg: 4, 5, 12, 14, 16. 2nd leg: 3, 11, 16, 17. 3rd leg: 1, 2, 3, 5. 4th leg: 11.
Tim Habel’s tips
Oaks: 1. Too Darn Discreet, 2. Powers Of Opal, 3. Treasurethe Moment, 4. Inevitable Truth
The verdict: Too Darn Discreet skipped the traditional Wakeful lead-up but her Ethereal win at 2000m was a sound Oaks trial. In a race where they are all on trial as stayers, barrier three is crucial for her on-pace racing style while the favourite Treasuredthe Moment has to negotiate a wide draw.
Best bet: Oh Too Good (Race six, No.5) – Awkwardly drawn in this Country Cup Final, but she is a foolproof emerging galloper. Likely to push forward and race outside the leader or get cover. Looks a mare destined for group race wins.
Next best: Kallos (Race two, No.1) – Luckless at Caulfield when held up on the rails in the closing stages. Twice a track and distance winner and has “J Mac” aboard.
Roughie: Bulawayo (Race three, No.14) – Chased home favourite Alma Rise on unsuitable soft ground two starts back and meets that galloper on 4kg better terms. Ran on late dropping back to 1400m at Sale, extra distance suits and both wins have been on good tracks.
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