The AFL flag blueprint: Is your club in the premiership window?

Hawthorn are on the cusp of premiership contention, but Carlton and Collingwood will need to produce major defensive transformations if they are to challenge the Brisbane Lions for the flag next season.

A deep-dive analysis by Champion Data following the AFL trade period has dissected the key statistics of the past 22 premiers, providing a guide for teams planning to be in the so-called premiership window in 2025.

Premiership teams typically are ranked top four in two key metrics: points for and points against, with the latter more important. Twenty of the past 22 premiership teams have been top four for defence; only the Hawks of 2014 and 2015 were outside the top four for points conceded, and they were fifth in this category. That the Hawks were the league’s best scoring side through each of those years meant they could afford to give a little at the other end of the ground.

But one hidden gem of a statistic common to premiership teams, which is often overlooked by supporters, is scores from turnover differential. Again, 20 of the past 22 premiers have been top four for scores from turnover differential. This statistic measures how a team makes opponents pay for their mistakes (when they turn over the ball).

List demographics are also critical in determining which teams are in the premiership window.

“Every club would run every club’s list demographics, position and rate them, age, ability, position,” said one list manager, speaking anonymously to talk about other clubs.

“It gives you a decent guide, but there are always other things that have a great effect.”

The Brisbane Lions, still celebrating their premiership success, ticked all three statistical boxes in 2024. They were top three for points for, points against and scores from turnovers. Their beaten grand final opponent Sydney, while No.1 for scoring and scoring from turnovers, were only sixth for points against. On the biggest day on the football calendar, that latter statistic was exposed when the Lions filled their boots.

The Lions may be favoured by the bookies to go back to back, but there’s a major caveat here. Joe Daniher’s retirement will hurt. The enigmatic star not only delivered 58 goals, his presence opened up opportunities for teammates inside attacking 50. His ability to go into the ruck, which then forced opposition defences to adjust to a smaller set up with Eric Hipwood the key tall, was also beneficial for the Lions. Just how coach Chris Fagan shifts the magnets now – Logan Morris could be the second tall – will shape the Lions’ destiny.

Three-time Lions premiership great Alastair Lynch said there was no reason to think the Lions will drop from contention, particularly with star father-son prospect Levi Ashcroft set to join. He said how the Lions replace Daniher will be fascinating, but suggested there was a ready-made replacement of sorts.

“Who is going to be the second ruck? Darcy Fort is a pretty solid sit-under-the-ball forward and can provide a contest. He doesn’t have the athleticism of Joe Daniher, but I suspect Fages will look at Fort to start with,” Lynch said.

Over the past two decades, only three premiers have finished outside the top six in scoring – the Tigers of 2017 (eighth), Bulldogs of 2016 (12th) and the Swans of 2005 (14th). But all three were defensively elite. The Tigers were the stingiest side in the competition, the Bulldogs were third for points against, while the Swans were second for points against.

Age and games

The average age and games played of the past 10 premiers is 26.4 and 125 respectively. However, a deeper dive shows that these categories can be massaged, giving “Dad’s Army” teams and upstart “Young Bucks” hope for success.

The Cats of 2022 were the oldest premiership team of all time with an average age of 28.6 years, while having an average of 166.6 games, well above the norm. But that was skewed with veterans Joel Selwood and Tom Hawkins in the line-up. Luke Hodge’s three-peat Hawks of 2015 were similar.

Conversely, Luke Beveridge’s pups of 2016 bucked the trend. This breakthrough flag was built on a team with an average age of just 24.4 and average games of 81.1, skewed by the absence of veteran skipper Bob Murphy. The Bulldogs had only the 12th-best attack, but a resolute defence.

Looking ahead to 2025 and beyond next month’s national draft, the Lions and Swans are still firmly in the ideal average age window. Then we have the Blues, the Bulldogs and – wait for it – Essendon. Now, the Bombers have all sorts of issues in scoring (ranked 13th), defending (15th) and were 14th for scores from turnovers. But they are now almost smack bang on for age and games played.

The Bombers, however, are not in the premiership window, and are embarking on a three-year plan to snare blue-chip talent.

Who can make the leap in 2025?

This is where it gets interesting, and where pre-season training and a rethink on 2024 game plans are pivotal.

The Blues and Magpies are all in for a flag, but they have work to do. The Blues were unable to settle on a key defensive partner for All-Australian Jacob Weitering – and it showed. They were ranked 14th for points against, but hope veteran GWS recruit Nick Haynes can help in this area, aiding Mitch McGovern, Nic Newman and Adam Saad.

Schwarz said a fit Tom De Koning was pivotal to a Blues’ resurrection.

“De Koning makes a big difference for them, just as a ruck-cum-midfielder, which then, obviously, helps [Sam] Walsh, [Patrick] Cripps and [Adam] Cerra and those types of players. The pressure up the ground will improve with De Koning back, the ball then doesn’t go in as easily as it has without him,” Schwarz said.

“They were killed on transition as well. When they modify that part of their game, they are going to be right up there. Their best footy this year was as good as anyone’s.”

Kane Cornes, the Port Adelaide premiership great and prominent commentator, has questioned whether the Blues are still too reliant on skipper Patrick Cripps in the midfield, and could finish anywhere from being premiers to 13th.

The Giants, who have been in the headlines in the off-season for all the wrong reasons, need to improve scoring – they were ranked seventh despite Coleman medallist Jesse Hogan’s best efforts – and defensively, where they were ranked ninth. However, psychological scarring looms as an issue after their dramatic capitulations this September.

The Magpies were poor at both ends of the ground this season, and in scores from turnovers. The surprise retirement of Nathan Murphy to concussion unsettled their back six, particularly freewheeling skipper Darcy Moore. But All-Australian rebounding defender Dan Houston shapes as the man who can help spark the Magpies’ running game, working alongside Brayden Maynard, Isaac Quaynor, Jeremy Howe and Moore.

Coach Craig McRae flagged the need for a key forward – former Saint Tim Membrey has completed a medical with the Magpies.

“As good as they have been with [Brody] Mihocek, he is not Peter Moore … he is not that sort of player who is going to kick you five every week. But they have good ball movement and have superstars who know how to find the [finish] line,” former Melbourne forward David Schwarz said.

Can the Hawks take the next step?

Hawthorn rode a wave of momentum to a semi-final, well ahead of expectations. They were the No.1 defensive unit, and have added key defender Josh Battle and premiership Eagle Tom Barrass. They were sixth for scoring and fourth in scoring from turnover differential. If there is one side ready to make a major splash, it’s Sam Mitchell and his band of social-media merry men.

“But … there will be a lot more homework put into Hawthorn. The tricks they were able to get away with this year won’t be as easily achievable into next year, as sides will put time into them knowing they are well drilled,” Schwarz cautioned.

“But they are exciting, they can play with flair. They have a lot of left footers which makes it hard for sides to defend against.”

Geelong, a beaten preliminary finalist, were second for points for, but slipped to 10th for points conceded. They ranked eighth for scoring from turnovers, but can expect that to improve with former Bulldogs star Bailey Smith, and his ball-carrying ability, on board.

Schwarz expects great things from Beveridge’s men, for they ranked fifth or better in the three key statistics this season.

He still believes Aaron Naughton’s best role is in defence, but says the Dogs have the best young talent in the game – Sam Darcy.

Fremantle should also be in the premiership mix. The Dockers have a good base – they were second for points against – but ninth for scoring. A late season injury to key forward Josh Treacy didn’t help. But the acquisition of Shai Bolton last week will.

And here’s a sleeper – probably not for the flag, but perhaps for a better-than-expected campaign. The Saints did what Ross Lyon-coached teams typically do last season, and that’s defend well. They were fourth for points against, but didn’t make the finals. They were seventh for points from turnover differential, but scoring was their biggest issue, ranked 15th. They hope a fit Max King will solve this issue, while Jack Macrae will deliver more midfield grunt.

However, Schwarz thinks the Saints lack match-winners.

“I look at St Kilda and I just don’t see anything that I like. They have got no stars,” Schwarz said.

“Jack Sinclair is a good player, Jack Steele is a good player, but they just don’t have bone fide match winners. If you are going to win flags, you have to have two or three.”

Melbourne’s scoring woes, and general play forward of centre, were often highlighted through the season. Simon Goodwin must fix this over summer. A fit Christian Petracca will aid this, while it remains to be seen if Jacob van Rooyen can become a star up forward.

“You have got to have the cattle to carry out what they were trying to do, and they just didn’t have that last year,” Schwarz said of the Demons’ need for a leading forward.

What else needs to be considered?

For a prosperous company balance sheet, there are many factors involved. In football terms, there are injuries. The Tigers were without Tom Lynch for all bar four games this season. Therefore, it was no surprise they were the worst scoring team in the competition.

The Cats, in 2023, and the Magpies this year – each the season after a premiership – had a terrible run with injuries. Each missed the finals a year after the ultimate success. For the Magpies, there was also off-field upheaval which may have contributed to on-field issues.

Unexpected retirements because of concussion can have a major impact. Just look at Angus Brayshaw’s absence at Melbourne this year.

The Swans will need to deal with any psychological scarring from two heavy grand final losses in three years.

As the senior recruiter said, some teams have a distinct home-ground advantage, pointing to the Cats’ dominance at GMHBA Stadium.

AFL rulings can also impact. The league is debating whether to eradicate the substitute player, and just have a five-man bench. If this is given the go-ahead, it will add another tactical twist. Will teams carry a specialist second ruck? Other potential rule interpretations, and the adjustments these require by players and coaches, can also sway flag aspirations.

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