The lack of an established pecking order among Australian sprinting ranks has punters looking to the three-year-olds as the x-factor in The Everest at Randwick on Saturday.
While six-year-old gelding I Wish I Win and four-year-old mare Joliestar topped betting at most outlets around the $6 mark on Friday, bookmakers are bracing for a flow of money for the younger brigade.
Traffic Warden launches to victory in the Run To The Rose.Credit: Getty Images
“I think a three-year-old will win it,” leading on-course fielder Rob Waterhouse said.
“I think the older horses are substandard this year, and that’s why there are so many three-year-olds in the race.
“I think Growing Empire has the right form, and that Storm Boy for my wife Gai will run a huge race.
“Growing Empire almost beat the older horses in the Manikato Stakes, and he is still improving.
“The three-year-olds and mares get a big advantage at weight for age in this race, and it is why Joliestar and Bella Nipotina will be popular as well.”
Waterhouse’s Golden Slipper-winning filly Lady Of Camelot completes the quartet of three-year-olds.
Bookmakers have three different sprinters at the top of betting heading into Saturday.
Ladbrokes’ Glen Munsie had Joliestar as a $6 favourite and I Wish I Win, which had been the best backed since the draw, at $6.50. But he expects the tide to turn to the three-year-olds as the $20 million slots race draws closer to the 4.15pm jump on Saturday.
“It is the default setting for punters – the horse they know from last year in I Wish I Win and Joliestar, which has the James McDonald and Chris Waller factor,” Munsie said.
“I Wish I Win is going to be a loser for us because he has been well backed since he ran second in the race last year and he is always popular with punters.
“There are so many different formlines coming into The Everest, and it makes it hard to line them up against each other. It comes down to opinion rather than when they have met each other.
“Joliestar has got the good draw and gets the right run, and they have so much faith in J-Mac, but three-year-olds could go to another level.”
Joliestar was brilliant first up in winning the Show County Quality before she was forced to chase from a long way out when third to Sunshine In Paris in the Sheraco Stakes last month.
Waller opted to give Joliestar a five-week break to have her at her best for The Everest.
“She is brilliant fresh. We saw that in the autumn when she beat the best three-year-olds fresh up,” he said.
“This preparation she was brilliant fresh after her spell, so we’ve gone back to that theory with five weeks between runs.
“We thought going into the race fresh would give her the best chance.
“She’s a very talented horse, she’s still lightly raced and still improving. Hopefully, we haven’t found the ceiling with her yet, and maybe we will see a glimpse of that on Saturday.”
Joliestar explodes away from the Show County Quality at the start of her spring preparation.Credit: Getty
Traffic Warden is the first of the three-year-olds in the betting at $7.50, and Godolphin trainer James Cummings believes he has to run a personal best to win The Everest.
He was a winner of the VRC Sires Produce Stakes and runner-up in the Sires Produce Stakes at Randwick as a two-year-old, but he has stepped up as a three-year-old to win the Run To The Rose in explosive style before his second to stablemate Broadsiding in the Golden Rose.
“We could not have him any better, he’s been deliberately set for The Everest,” Cummings said.
“He’ll arrive ready to run one of the races of his preparation. What we love about this horse is that we have not seen this horse fail to improve every time he’s gone to the track.
“That’s a good sign for an up-and-coming three-year-old tackling these horses at weight-for-age in the hardest sprint race of the year.
“When it comes down to it, Traffic Warden is going to need to go to that next level.”
All runners for The Everest, The Kosciuszko and the King Charles III Stakes were passed fit to run by Racing NSW vets after trot-ups on Friday.
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