What the numbers say about this year’s Everest winner.Credit: Graphic: Monique Westermann
It’s Everest time again, and this year’s $20 million race is even more highly anticipated than normal given speculation that King Charles III and Queen Camilla could make a surprise appearance at Royal Randwick on Saturday.
The world’s richest race on turf is only in its eighth year but in that short time there are already some good clues as to who the winner might be.
Sam Clipperton won the 2023 Everest on Think About It.Credit: Getty
This year’s race is wide open and the bookmakers currently have last year’s runner-up I Wish I Win and four-year-old mare Joliestar as equal favourites at $6. But there are some pointers as to who will come out on top.
Here’s our seven-step formula for trying to find the winner of The Everest.
The numbers have it
If there’s an oddity in the list of Everest winners since 2017, then it might be in the saddlecloth numbers. Only three numbers have been carried to victory in the 12-horse field. In seven runnings of The Everest, No.3 is the luckiest of them all with wins in 2023, 2020 and 2017, and No.1 and No.12 have two wins apiece.
These statistics bode well for Private Eye (No.3), I Wish I Win (No.1) and Lady of Camelot (No.12) this year.
Barriers to success
Do barriers really make a difference when it comes to assessing the form for a race? It depends on who you ask, but no doubt this year’s race will be decided by horses who get the better run. The only lucky number we have is barrier five, the stall from which the 2022 and 2023 winners jumped. Past winners have also come from one, four, six, nine and 10, but undoubtedly drawing the inside half in the 12-horse field will be a help.
Winning age
Once again five is our lucky number, with three previous race winners (Redzel, Classique Legend and Think About It). There are two five-year-olds in the field this year – Giga Kick and Sunshine In Paris – but three is also considered a good age for an Everest contender because of the weight-for-age conditions. Giga Kick won The Everest as a three-year-old in 2022, and Yes Yes Yes in 2019.
Sex matters
A mare has never won the race. Six geldings and one colt have taken the honours, but there are a number of contenders aiming to shake up those results this year. Bella Nipotina, I Am Me, Stefi Magnetica, Sunshine In Paris and Joliestar are the mares in the field along with three-year-old filly Lady Of Camelot, all up against history to win the race.
Watch the scales
Unlike the Melbourne Cup, where the handicapping system allots different weights to horses, The Everest is run under a weight-for-age scale. That means horses are given weights according to their age and sex rather than previous performance. Given the boys have dominated The Everest thus far, there have only been two winning weights: 58.5kg and 53.5kg.
Colour your world
Colours could just be a coincidence, but in the past seven years of The Everest the winning horses have carried red and white four times. That’s got to be some kind of luck, right?
The colour combination bodes well for Giga Kick again, and I Am Me, while Bella Nipotina and Stefi Magnetica have a tinge of red on their silks.
Giga Kick powers away to win The Everest in 2022.Credit: Getty
The odds
Everyone likes to take a risk on an outside chance every once in a while, but in Everest history it pays to follow the favourites.
Three of the punters’ top picks have won in the past four runnings – Classique Legend, Nature Strip, and Think About It – and the first three winners started either $8.50 or $9.
Only one winner – Giga Kick at $21 in 2022 – has won the Everest at a double-figure price.
So, what does all this information tell us?
In an ideal world, you want a male horse that carries the No.3, starts from barrier five, is five years old, has a single-figure price in betting and has red and white as its colours.
Unfortunately, that exact horse doesn’t exist, but there are a few that tick multiple boxes. Giga Kick is the closest – the right age, starts from barrier three, is a gelding and carries red and white – but at $15 it would be another upset if he repeats his 2022 win.
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