Of all the unlikely types to offer Cronulla hope of one of the biggest upsets in NRL finals history, the weatherman was looking good earlier this week.
A forecast of sideways rain from Thursday to Saturday’s grand final qualifier against the Panthers, and a Heavy 8 Accor track offered a soggy, closer to level, playing field.
One of Penrith’s few weaknesses has been the wet – they’re two from six when playing in rain over the past two years – and the Sharks own home ground is known as rugby league’s Bermuda Triangle for a reason.
The goalpost flags have been known to fly in completely opposite directions, Sharknados roll in and opposition teams can disappear.
Unfortunately for Cronulla, the forecast has been dialled back, and the preliminary final is set for overcast but dry conditions.
Still, for the Sharks to reverse a 70-0 scoreline in their last two clashes with Penrith, a wet weather approach is as good as any. And knocking off the Panthers as rank outsiders would be one for the Bermuda Triangle Hall of Fame.
Tricks and kicks: The balance between Hynes and Trindall
The best game of Braydon Trindall’s career delivered three tries from his boot against North Queensland last week as he took the lion’s share of kicking duties.
Not until the 20th minute did Hynes kick in general play, and by halftime he and Trindall had shared the play making straight down the middle – Trindall had 41 touches of the ball, Hynes 40 and the Sharks led 24-0.
Those numbers are skewed by Cronulla’s glut of possession, but still show the significant step back by Hynes. As the Sharks dominant No.7 since 2022, no other half has touched the ball as often as his average of 63 receipts per game.
Against Penrith’s league-leading defensive line speed, Hynes will have to step forward again.
Trindall’s 20 kicks against the Cowboys for 635 metres and four forced line drop-outs will have Panthers Mitch Kenny, Isaah Yeo and Liam Martin leading the NRL’s best kick pressure on Cronulla’s rising star.
Hynes’ short kicking game has dialled back since his Dally M medal in 2022 when he forced 21 line drop-outs (equal 1st in the NRL). But he still has three 40-20s this season (equal 2nd) and can keep both Penrith’s defensive line and their back five honest.
Wing it: Turning Penrith’s weapons into a weakness
The difference between Penrith’s seven losses and 17 wins this year is almost 250 run metres in their all-conquering yardage game.
In the last two of those losses against Melbourne and Canberra last month, Brian To’o – the NRL’s most effective backfield winger – was successfully targeted and taken out of the game.
Cronulla already have the blueprint Jahrome Hughes and Cameron Munster used so effectively in round 24, with Trindall bombing the Cowboys repeatedly last week for Ronaldo Mulitalo and Sione Katoa to lead their own kick chase.
Twice it led to Sharks tries.
To’o switched to Penrith’s right wing in their last start against the Roosters, which would put him opposite Mulitalo.
Just as the Storm and Raiders found, forcing To’o to deal with repeated high balls has him making carries from a standing start, and takes him out of action for plays two and three – where his leg speed and post-contact metres are most effective.
As a trio, he, Dylan Edwards and Daine Laurie (who has since been usurped by Sunia Turuva) made a combined nine errors across the two upset losses to Melbourne and Canberra.
Two more of Penrith’s losses this year came when To’o and Edwards were away on Origin duty, albeit with the likes of Yeo, Martin and Jarome Luai as well, but there’s no overstating how important their backfield work is to the Panthers success.
At the other end of the paddock, Cronulla’s back five is just as critical to the yardage battle.
Ronaldo Mulitalo: Cronulla’s key man.Credit: Getty
Mulitalo, Katoa, William Kennedy and centres Jesse Ramien and Kayal Iro combined for 848 running metres against the Cowboys, more than 42 per cent of the Sharks entire total last week.
Cronulla’s is one of the few backlines that compares to Penrith’s for carries coming out of trouble.
The Panthers themselves acknowledged this in 42-0 thrashing of the Sharks in May, when just one of their 30 kicks was directed to Mulitalo, who finished with one single kick return metre as a result.
With Ramien unlikely to play due to his ongoing ankle injury, Muliato and Katoa become even more critical given Siosifa Talakai offers tackle-busting impact at the expense of mobility.
So you’re saying there’s a chance?
And like any side, Penrith are susceptible to pressure. It’s just that for the past four years they’ve been better at applying and surviving it than any NRL rival.
Champion Data statistics show that from the Panthers’ seven losses this season, their average passes (the most in the NRL) drop noticeably along with their yardage game, but their offloads rise slightly with more errors.
Their vulnerability in the wet adds up given their ball control is dragged down to the level of mere mortals, which is exactly where Cronulla’s hopes lie.
Penrith have always backed themselves to outlast teams in a grind given Nathan Cleary ranks as one of the best match-winners of the modern era.
If the Sharks can upset Penrith’s systematic approach with one of their own, well stranger things have happened. They do call the Bermuda Triangle home after all.
