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Patrick Cripps and Nick Daicos are set to go head-to-head for Brownlow glory in a vote count that will have the spectre of Sydney star Isaac Heeney’s controversial suspension hovering over football’s night of nights.
Lachie Neale, Nick Daicos and Patrick Cripps are the leading Brownlow contenders.Credit: Getty Images/Aresna Villanueva (artwork)
The Carlton and Collingwood midfield maestros are the biggest roadblocks in two-time winner Lachie Neale’s path to Brownlow immortality, while Western Bulldogs skipper Marcus Bontempelli should again poll well in what many believe to be a four-horse race for the game’s most prestigious individual honour.
Heeney’s red-hot start to the season should ensure an asterisk on the leaderboard, perhaps even the top, for at least half of the count, though his lull towards the back of the season is expected to spare the AFL the awkwardness of having an ineligible “winner” for the first time in 27 years.
Heeney’s previous best tally was eight votes, but this masthead is forecasting him to have doubled that by round 10, while others predict he could have as many as 22 votes.
In 1997, St Kilda champion Robert Harvey won despite polling one fewer than Western Bulldogs star Chris Grant, who had also been rubbed out in contentious circumstances. A gracious Harvey said his win was a “hollow victory” though the floor’s warm response suggested they felt otherwise.
Isaac Heeney performs one of his wonders against Jase Burgoyne in the preliminary final. Credit: AFL Photos / Getty Images
Richmond superstar Dustin Martin needed the full six votes in the final two rounds in 2017 to overrun the suspended Patrick Dangerfield by three. The Cats champion was surprisingly overlooked in the penultimate round despite a match-high 32 possessions and two goals in a narrow win.
There is already consternation among fans that the award for the mark and goal of the year, also to be awarded on Monday night, are not open for the finals. Jeremy Cameron and Heeney would both have strong cases for the respective gongs if the eligible period extended beyond the home and away season.
Punters are struggling to separate Cripps and Daicos, raising the prospect of joint winners on the night for the first time since 2003 when Mark Ricciuto, Nathan Buckley and Adam Goodes all took Charlie home.
The AFL website’s medal predictor has Daicos and Cripps sharing the medal with 33 votes but The Age’s model, which converts the five vote-getters into the three-two-one system, is projecting the Magpie son of a gun to win by six from Cripps and Neale.
Daicos’s hopes of a first Brownlow will soar if he can defy expectations and poll votes early in the season, a period when he was one of few Pies to play well while the team struggled.
He did not score a vote from this masthead in rounds one to four, but could catch the umpires’ eye for his game-high 37 disposals in the loss to Sydney and in victories against Brisbane and Hawthorn.
Daicos is expected to make his move after the Magpies’ first bye, and could hit the front in round 11 with his 35 possessions in the draw against Fremantle.
Run down in the final round last year after being the raging favourite until injury struck late, Daicos should be hitting the line hard with back-to-back best on grounds on the cards in the last two games, and could poll in as many as 15 of the last 19 games.
Cripps has three matches – in round six against Greater Western Sydney (39 possessions), round 16 against Richmond (40, one goal) and round 23 against West Coast (35 possessions) – where he should be a lock for the three, and is in line to have his name read out in perhaps another dozen matches.
In the past two years, 2022 winner Cripps has caught the umpire’s eye in 18 of the 19 games where he recorded 28 or more possessions. This year, he had 15 such performances, leaving him with strong claims to become just the 17th man since the award’s inception 100 years ago to win the Brownlow a second time.
Carlton’s late-season collapse will not help Cripps, though may not hinder him either as he was one of few Blues who maintained his lofty standards through to the end.
Neale, like Daicos, may not feature on the leaderboard until the second half of the count after a slow start where he could poll in just one of his first seven games.
Instrumental in the Lions’ surge up the ladder, Neale is tipped to score votes in eight of 11 games, including maximums in rounds 10, 17, 18 and 20 with two hauls of 36 possessions, 34 and 35.
Perennial contender Bontempelli will be the sentimental favourite inside Crown Palladium but will need to defy his Brownlow trends to break through.
In 2021 and 2023 when the Bulldogs great finished second, Bontempelli had nine games of 30 disposals or more, polling 18 votes, and also featured in a further five games (four in 2021, one in 2023) where he kicked multiple goals.
This year, Bontempelli has had seven games of 30 or more possessions but also six games where he boots two more goals. Unfortunately for his supporters, all but one of those instances came in defeats, reducing his likelihood of votes.
Last year’s bolter Errol Gulden won just as much of the ball this year, albeit with seven fewer goals, and featured in a more successful Swans season though has more teammates threatening for votes.
Essendon skipper Zach Merrett, Fremantle ball magnet Caleb Serong and Giants clearance beast Tom Green all have claims on a top-10 finish in what is shaping as another count dominated by on-ballers.
The shortest-priced non-midfielder is running defender Nick Blakey, rated a $251 chance by TAB Sportsbet.
Heeney’s rise to Brownlow prominence comes after his move into a more prominent centre-square role. His previous best was eight votes in 2021.
