Max Holmes was a major reason Geelong seemed bound for another grand final. His bad luck is also a big part of why the Cats fell agonisingly short.
The football gods can be cruel, even to a modern powerhouse which has defied the era of equalisation.
A dejected Max Holmes after he was subbed out with an injury.Credit: AFL Photos via Getty Images
If the Cats had qualified, there is every chance a hamstrung Holmes would have missed a crack at a premiership medal, as he did two years ago.
Instead, the sense of regret is being felt not just by Holmes but throughout the entire club after the Cats blew a 25-point lead early in the third quarter to bow out in heartbreaking fashion.
Coach Chris Scott said he will struggle to sleep in the coming nights. There are no shortage of what ifs that will keep him up.
As much as Scott was at pains to avoid making excuses on Saturday night, the Cats were dealt a bad hand this week.
So too were Brisbane, who lost ruckman Oscar McInerney to a dislocated shoulder that threatens his spot in the grand final, but unanswerable questions swirl in defeat.
Midfield coach Steven King’s frightening health scare at training, though not life-threatening, forced Scott’s experienced lieutenant out of the coaches box. Who knows what difference it could have made in a close game where the Cats lost clearances by 10?
Two off-field staff contracted COVID, Scott revealed. Masks were worn in the Cats’ rooms. Word of flu had filtered through to the Brisbane camp. Holmes had a bout of gastro. Could his illness have led to fatigue, leaving him more vulnerable to a soft-tissue injury?
The impact of Holmes’s absence for almost the entire second half is undeniable. When the game opened up in the third quarter, Geelong’s fastest midfielder – and their leading ball-winner to half-time – was on the other side of the boundary line getting his hamstring massaged by medical staff.
In the 15 minutes Holmes was off the field, the hosts lost control of the game and the lead, which had swelled out to 25 points after he and Patrick Dangerfield – another Cat living on the edge – combined for the opening goal of the third term.
“That’s a reflection of how good a player he is, more so than the reshuffle through our midfield,” Scott said of the effect Holmes’s injury had on the game.
“I thought he was dominating the game. It hurt a bit.”
Whereas the Cats had been the team running in waves through the middle of the MCG in the first half, in the second half the Lions, through their control at stoppage, were the ones moving the ball at speed to their livewire small forwards.
Holmes, who returned briefly late in the third term, lasted just two minutes in the last quarter before pulling the pin immediately after his 16th and final kick, and being subbed out.
The uncertainty around Holmes prevented the Cats from activating the sub earlier when the fresh legs and experience of Mitch Duncan could have applied the handbrakes on the Lions’ charge. Another what if.
Dangerfield was also playing sore, jolted by a knee into the ribs from Harris Andrews at a marking contest. His sling tackle on Hugh McCluggage will come under the scrutiny of the match review officer. Not that it will be of comfort to Cats fans, any suspension will cost him round one rather than a grand final.
Selection, or rather non-selection, is another imponderable for Scott.
Shannon Neale deserved his spot ahead of Tom Hawkins but in a high-stakes game with so many pressure moments it’s only natural to wonder how the Cats games’ record holder could have changed the result. Zach Tuohy is another who missed out to a younger player.
“I found this week really hard dealing with those guys,” Scott said wistfully. “One of the hard parts is you come away from it and still don’t know if it was the right decision or not. When it doesn’t work out, you tend to think that maybe it wasn’t.”
For years, the doubters have been waiting for the Cats to fall off a cliff, only to see them defy the critics with a deep run into September.
Change has come. More beckons. Hawkins and Tuohy have retired. Duncan, Gary Rohan and Rhys Stanley, whose poster from close range sealed Geelong’s fate, are out of contract.
As much as it feels like the end of an era, there is enough young talent to reasonably believe there will be no dramatic tumble. Gryan Miers and Tyson Stengle are 25. Key defender Sam De Koning is 23. Holmes, Tanner Bruhn and Ollie Henry are 22, Lawson Humphries and Ollie Dempsey are 21.
All have been important to the Cats getting this close to a grand final – but as bright as the future is it’s a long way back to where they were yesterday.
