With just two weeks left in the first 18-team AFLW season, a full 13 clubs are still alive in the finals race.
But one club is clinging onto the last spot in the top eight and could shut the door this weekend, while two top-four shaping matches loom large.
Foxfooty.com.au predicts the first week of finals and more in The Run Home!
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PREDICTED WEEK 1 FINALS
First Qualifying Final (1st hosts 4th): Brisbane Lions host Collingwood
First Elimination Final (5th hosts 8th): Geelong hosts North Melbourne
Second Elimination Final (6th hosts 7th): Richmond hosts Western Bulldogs
Second Qualifying Final (2nd hosts 3rd): Melbourne hosts Adelaide Crows
Lions flex might with win over Crows | 01:05
1. BRISBANE LIONS (7-1, 243.8%)
To play: Hawthorn at Skybus Stadium, Collingwood at Metricon Stadium
Analysis: The Lions are closing in on the minor premiership after their impressive win over Adelaide, though they’ll need to thump Hawthorn to stay ahead of Melbourne on percentage. They could yet drop out of the top two with a loss to Collingwood in the final round, but we can’t see Brisbane falling any lower than third. They look pretty certain to either face the Magpies again in their qualifying final, or battle their old enemies the Crows again.
Prediction: Go 2-0, finish first
2. MELBOURNE (7-1, 224.1%)
To play: Essendon at Casey Fields, West Coast at Casey Fields
Analysis: You’d be well within your rights to have Melbourne as favourites for the minor premiership, since they only have games left against two expansion sides. They look like sure things for the top-two, at the very least, given one of Brisbane or Collingwood won’t win in Round 10. We’re respecting the Lions’ percentage lead and tipping them to hold onto first (just) but either way, we should get a top four of Lions-Dees-Pies-Crows in some order, which is the top four this season deserves. Should be fun.
Prediction: Go 2-0, finish second
3. COLLINGWOOD (7-1, 192.4%)
To play: North Melbourne at Victoria Park, Brisbane at Metricon Stadium
Analysis: The minor premiership is probably a bridge too far just based on percentage, but the Magpies can still claim a top-two spot with a 2-0 finish – except they probably have the toughest last two weeks in the competition. Drop one game and they should be safe in the top four; drop both and they’re not. If they do go 0-2, we suspect they’re more likely to be knocked out of the top four by Richmond than Geelong, which would be quite remarkable.
Prediction: Go 1-1, finish fourth
President tells how Ratten lost his job | 01:06
4. ADELAIDE CROWS (6-2, 184.8%)
To play: Geelong at Norwood Oval, St Kilda at RSEA Park
Analysis: News of a three to five-week ankle injury for skipper Chelsea Randall adds to the Crows’ pain after their winning streak was snapped by Brisbane on Friday. They’re in effect playing a top-four eliminator this weekend, given you’d expect both them and the Cats to win in the final round (Geelong plays Sydney), and they should be warm favourites. Their finishing position should otherwise depend on the Collingwood-Brisbane game in Round 10; they can catch the Magpies on percentage but probably not the Lions. Either way they’re heading interstate for a qualifying final, if they make one.
Prediction: Go 2-0, finish third
5. GEELONG CATS (6-2, 153.9%)
To play: Adelaide at Norwood Oval, Sydney at GMHBA Stadium
Analysis: Arguably the two biggest games in Geelong AFLW history have come against Adelaide. The first was their surprise 2019 finals appearance; the second is this Friday night, in a virtual top-four eliminator. Upset the Crows on the road, and the Cats would be almost certain of a finals double chance, which would be a remarkable achievement given the quality of the current top four. Lose and they’re not 100% locked into the eight – let’s say 99.9% – but as long as they beat Sydney in the last round, they’re likely to be hosting a final.
Prediction: Go 1-1, finish fifth
6. RICHMOND (6-2, 134.9%)
To play: GWS at Mildura Sporting Precinct, North Melbourne at Arden Street
Analysis: On the longest winning streak in the league, the Tigers look almost certain to play finals for the first time, having already won twice as many games as they’d won in a season before this one. If they beat GWS they’ll be in a strong position to host a final – and if North Melbourne loses to Collingwood as well, it’d be assured. Either way the final-round clash with the Kangaroos will be critical for finals seeding, and could result in an elimination final rematch. (Which they probably don’t want.) And there’s even a slight chance the Tigers could pinch a top four spot from Collingwood (since the Pies have a tricky last two weeks).
Prediction: Go 1-1, finish sixth
7. NORTH MELBOURNE (5-3, 168.4%)
To play: Collingwood at Victoria Park, Richmond at Arden Street
Analysis: The Kangaroos could yet be the victim of the uneven AFLW fixture – which purposefully gave the expansion teams more games against each other, and so on. They’ve only lost to Melbourne, Adelaide and Brisbane this year but if they fall to the fourth-placed Magpies and sixth-placed Tigers too, the Roos could miss the top eight altogether. If they go 0-2, the Bulldogs win at least once (and they should beat West Coast), and the Suns win twice (against Carlton and GWS), that’d be curtains on North’s season. It’d be pretty unfair, but it can happen. The Kangaroos still control their fate and should be good enough to win at least one of their last two games… but jeez this may go down to the wire.
Prediction: Go 1-1, finish eighth
Kangaroos fight back to defeat Port | 01:03
8. WESTERN BULLDOGS (5-3, 97.5%)
To play: West Coast at Mineral Resources Park, Carlton at Ikon Park
Analysis: After their 4-0 start, the Bulldogs finally ended a losing skid this past weekend against St Kilda, and it should be enough to get them into the eight. If they can beat lowly West Coast, they’ll end the seasons of the Bombers, Blues, Giants and Hawks. Then they can lock up a finals spot by beating Carlton – alternatively they just need Gold Coast to lose once, since the percentage gap is reasonably big (but not impossible to make up in the low-scoring AFLW environment).
Prediction: Go 2-0, finish seventh
9. GOLD COAST SUNS (4-4, 80.5%)
To play: Carlton at Metricon Stadium, GWS at Henson Park
Analysis: Last weekend’s thumping loss to Melbourne did a lot of damage to the Suns’ percentage. And so, while they’re by far the most likely side out of the top eight to play finals, they still need help. They have two realistic paths: win twice and pass the Bulldogs on percentage after the Dogs lose to Carlton (possible) or win twice and replace a North Melbourne side that loses to both Collingwood and Richmond. North is pretty clearly the best team of the Dogs-Suns-Roos trio but their fixture means they might be the most likely to miss out… we’re still tipping the Roos to hold on. Just.
Prediction: Go 2-0, miss finals on percentage
10. ESSENDON (3-5, 103.1%)
To play: Melbourne at Casey Fields, Port Adelaide at Alberton Oval
Analysis: Easily the most impressive expansion side, the Bombers have been competitive almost every week. But they’re still going to need to win two games to sneak into the eight and that’d mean beating Melbourne. Seems unlikely.
Prediction: Go 1-1, miss finals
Bombers still in finals hunt | 01:27
11. CARLTON (2-4-2, 77.8%)
To play: Gold Coast at Metricon Stadium, Western Bulldogs at Ikon Park
Analysis: On the plus side the Blues have two games left against two of the sides they need to pass to make the eight. Realistically though, unless West Coast beats the Bulldogs this coming week, they’re done – with those two draws and the Round 6 loss to GWS most to blame.
Prediction: Go 0-2, miss finals
12. GWS GIANTS (3-5, 62.4%)
To play: Richmond at Mildura Sporting Precinct, Gold Coast at Henson Park
Analysis: Like the other teams on 12 points, the Giants need the Bulldogs to go 0-2 to have any chance of playing finals, so they’re cheering for West Coast this Saturday. But they’d also have to beat an in-form Richmond side the next day, so either way we suspect the Giants’ season will end this weekend.
Prediction: Go 0-2, miss finals
13. HAWTHORN (3-5, 60.8%)
To play: Brisbane at Skybus Stadium, Fremantle at Fremantle Oval
Analysis: To be honest, back in the pre-season nobody would’ve expected the Hawks to be alive in the finals race with two weeks left, so this is already a big win. But they need to beat Brisbane to stay alive and… yeah, can’t see that happening.
Prediction: Go 0-2, miss finals
St Kilda, West Coast, Port Adelaide, Fremantle and Sydney cannot play finals.
