The captivating 2022 Major League Soccer regular season is behind us, and while we feel for the unlucky fans of the 14 clubs whose campaigns are disappointingly over, we’re energized by a fresh looking postseason field ready to contest the MLS Cup playoffs. Supporters’ Shield winners LAFC and the Philadelphia Union will enjoy a bye in Round One’s opening salvos, leaving the Nos. 2 through 7 seeds in both the Eastern and Western conferences to kick off the postseason beginning on Saturday.
ESPN’s Jeff Carlisle, Kyle Bonagura, Bill Connelly, Dan Hajducky, Cesar Hernandez and Austin Lindberg preview all six Round 1 matchups, predicting which clubs will be moving on to the conference semifinals and whose players should begin booking travel arrangements for holidays in far-flung locales during the all-too-short offseason.
4. New York Red Bulls vs. 5. FC Cincinnati (Saturday, noon ET)
Can we have a moment to celebrate the Orange and Blue? FC Cincinnati took full points eleven times in 2022 after combining for just 14 in their three previous seasons as an MLS club – a step forward that can’t be encapsulated here. Conversely, the Red Bulls haven’t missed a postseason since 2009 and this one’s in Harrison, NJ.
Though New York is favored to advance, it’s a pretty even match. The historically stingy Red Bulls back line should have its hands full with Brandon Vazquez, Young Player of the Year finalist Brenner and an FC Cincy offense that finished third in the league in goals scored (64). But it really comes down to a few key factors:
Who concedes first? Cincinnati won one of twelve games when doing so; the Red Bulls are tied for fifth in wins after going down.
Who forces the most errors? New York led the league in fouls committed. Although Cincinnati weren’t particularly adept at drawing fouls, a costly mistake could loom large.
Who pushes the pace? Both New York (1.91, 1st) and Cincy (1.63, 6th) are in the six fastest teams – on a meters-per-second basis – in MLS. This one will be fought directly, with frenetic pace at goal, and very little crossing play from the flanks.
If anyone’s poised to ride out a tie through extra time and dance on by the skin of their teeth, it’s Cincy. — Hajducky
Predictions:
The question here is: How ugly can the Red Bulls make this game in order to thwart Cincy’s attack? The answer is plenty, but outside of Lewis Morgan, New York’s attack isn’t that compelling, while Cincinnati’s is. Look for FCC to get a road win here. — Carlisle
Cincinnati’s ability to transform from historically bad to playoff team in one year speaks to one of the best aspects of the MLS structure. I’m not of the mind that playoff experience necessarily matters, either, and like FCC to win a low-scoring game. — Bonagura
Two regular-season draws hint at the evenness of the matchup, and Cincinnati have been putting up some gaudy goal totals of late. But if playoff experience is worth anything (even bad playoff experience), the Red Bulls hold the slightest of edges. — Connelly
I’m a sucker for an underdog arc. Think the combo of Brenner and Vazquez up front overpowers New York. On march the Orange and Blue. — Hajducky
There’s a lot to like about the FCC attack that features standouts like Vazquez, Acosta and Brenner. If the defense doesn’t collapse, Cincinnati can escape with a win here in their first-ever MLS playoff game. — Hernandez
The Red Bulls boast the second-stingiest defense in the Eastern Conference, but Brenner is demonstrating why he was so highly touted coming out of Brazil, Brandon Vazquez is scoring goals the USMNT sorely lack from their No. 9s and Luciano Acosta is one of the league’s premier playmakers once again. Cincy just have too much firepower for New York to keep up. — Lindberg
The hottest team in MLS over the season’s final three months came just two points shy of the top seed in the Eastern Conference. Montreal have lost just once since July 9, and they hold most of the edges over No. 7 seed Orlando unless the gods of single-elimination playoff decide to be particularly fickle.
Montreal boast one of the league’s most prolific attacks. They generate high-quality looks from close range — they had the league’s highest percentage of shots from the box — and the combination of Eredivisie-bound creator and Djordje Mihailovic and veteran forwards Romell Quioto and Kei Kamara has been especially effective. The trio combined for 33 goals and 19 assists from 104 chances created in the regular season. The attack is title worthy, while the defense has been barely playoff worthy.
Orlando were one constant plot twist in 2022. Oscar Pareja’s squad won four in a row in August to bolt comfortably into the playoff conversation and, for good measure, won the U.S. Open Cup in early September after a particularly dramatic run. But they lost four of their final six regular-season matches and didn’t secure a playoff bid until Facundo Torres‘ 84th-minute penalty gave them a 2-1 win over Columbus on Sunday. The prolific Torres and fellow newcomer Ercan Kara combined for 20 goals and 13 assists from 60 chances created.
Montreal won their only battle with Orlando this season, turning a 2-1 lead into a 4-1 romp with late goals from Joaquin Torres and Zachary Brault-Guillard in May. Both of these teams want to possess the ball and control the tempo, and both have given up high-quality chances at times. Montreal have been better this season, but it would only take one parry from Torres and Kara to make things interesting. — Connelly
Predictions:
Montreal have been quietly going about their business all year with a ruthless efficiency. Orlando have been a bit all over the place, even while winning the U.S. Open Cup. In the playoffs all of this matters little, but still look for CFM to get the win over Orlando. — Carlisle
For the soccer club formerly known as the Impact, this has been without question the best season of their MLS existence, and I’m expecting a run to the conference final. — Bonagura
Aside from NYCFC, there isn’t a bigger first-round betting favorite than Montreal, and the reasons are pretty obvious. Orlando upset Philadelphia and won two shootouts on the way to the U.S. Open Cup final, but we’ll say they’ve maxed out their drama quota. — Connelly
Let’s not overthink it: No team tallied more points after May 1 than Montreal and Orlando City marches to the Great White North with, per FiveThirtyEight, a 20% chance to advance. Montreal might look past Orlando City toward a fearsome Philadelphia Union squad, but it feels unlikely. — Hajducky
Their path to the 2022 U.S. Open Cup highlighted that Orlando and Pareja can thrive in knockout situations. Gutsy and capable of closing out games in their favor, Orlando will at the very least make things difficult for Montreal. — Hernandez
Cesar Araujo’s arrival in Orlando last winter flew under the radar amid the high-profile signings of Torres and Kara, yet he’s the one who will determine whether the Lions can advance from this matchup, and it comes down to his ability to chaperone Mihailovic. I don’t like his odds. — Lindberg
3. New York City FC vs. 6. Inter Miami CF (Monday, 7 p.m. ET)
After a disastrous stretch from August into September that saw NYCFC, the defending MLS Cup champions, lose seven of nine matches, three straight wins to close the regular season appear to have somewhat righted the ship. Still, as a result of injuries and departures, this team hardly resembles the group that won the Cup last year. The availability of Talles Magno, Tayvon Gray and Alfredo Morales — all of whom were forced off with knocks in the regular-season finale — looms large in a game that will be played at Citi Field.
For Miami, Gonzalo Higuain‘s incredible run of form to end the season — 14 goals in 16 matches — has been one of the league’s best storylines during the second half of the year. His play has been the most significant single factor that allowed the club to rebound from last year’s failure and do so with nearly an entirely reconstructed roster.
The teams split their two matches during the regular season with NYCFC winning 2-0 at home before Miami took their home match 3-2. Miami’s win was their first ever in the series after NYCFC won five straight after the Herons entered the league in 2020. — Bonagura
