Houston DashNo. 4 seed Record: 10-6-6, 36 pts.Round 1: hosts Kansas City, Sunday at 5 p.m. ETKey players: FW Maria Sanchez, FW Ebony Salmon, DF Katie Naughton
Why the Dash will win the NWSL title For starters, the Dash are finally here. Eight years after playing their inaugural NWSL season, they are finally in the playoffs, ending a drought that mercilessly continued last year when they dropped three straight games to end the season and miss the playoffs by a point, failing to score in any of those games.
This year, they have more offensive firepower, an ironic statement considering the unexpected midseason departure to Aston Villa of longtime captain Rachel Daly . Ebony Salmon is clinical in front of goal, and her nine goals in 12 games since joining Houston mid-season speak to her talent. Nichelle Prince also put in one of her best seasons yet and showed further versatility in various roles.
Maria Sanchez is the game-changer, and her presence on this team for the entire season is the major difference from 2021. Sanchez joined the Dash in June 2021 for one of the shortest loans possible, then committed to Houston full-time ahead of the 2022 season. Her four assists lead the team, and her ability to influence the game from wide areas is a major advantage for Houston. If she can get isolated in 1-v-1 opportunities, the Dash will find success.
Why the Dash won’t win the NWSL title The total battle on the flanks. The Dash face Kansas City to open playoffs, and Kansas City’s 3-5-2 gets the most out of wing-backs Hailie Mace and Kate Del Fava — and they are likely to put significant pressure on Houston’s full-backs. The Dash’s defense hasn’t been bad this season, but it has been stretched at times, and Kansas City managed to previously achieve that upper hand both in the regular season and Challenge Cup, winning three of four previous meetings this year. If Sanchez is forced to cover defensively as Kansas City gets forward, it will limit her influence in the attack.
There remains a question about the best central midfield combination for Houston, too. Sophie Schmidt and Marisa Viggiano have been constants, but the third player around them has rotated even recently, such that Kansas City’s center attacking midfielder, Claire Lavogez and Lo’eau LaBonta, have the edge right now.
Kansas City Current No. 5 seed Record: 10-6-6, 36 pts.Round 1: at Houston, Sunday at 5 p.m. ETKey players: MF Lo’eau LaBonta, MF Claire Lavogez, DF Elizabeth Ball
Why the Current will win the NWSL title Kansas City rattled off a 13-game unbeaten run throughout the summer that included every team except the Thorns, who the Current drew 1-1 after the streak was snapped with an ugly, 4-0 loss in Chicago.
Lo’eau LaBonta put in her best season yet and arguably had the best season of any attacking midfielder in the league, and Claire Lavogez complements her perfectly. Lavogez was one of the best NWSL acquisitions from the summer transfer window. Cece Kizer ‘s arrival also marked one of the best trades of the season. Kizer’s seven goals are tied with LaBonta for most on the team, and she pairs with Kristen Hamilton in such a way that there is no obvious answer to marking one or the other out of a game. Together, they’ve all created a balanced attack.
Elizabeth Ball also anchors a back three that is typically hard to beat, and Kansas City’s wing-backs have been the best in the league in that particular system (which is similarly played by Chicago, in a 3-4-3, and previously by Portland).
Chicago Red StarsNo. 6 seed 9-7-6, 33 pts.Round 1: at San Diego, Sunday at 10 p.m. ETKey players: FW Mallory Pugh, MF Vanessa DiBernardo, DF Tatumn Milazzo
Why the Red Stars will win the NWSL title Chicago might be the most difficult team to read of the playoff bunch, and those inconsistencies led to the Red Stars fighting their way to the sixth and final playoff berth on the final day of the regular season.
In simple and obvious terms, this is the Mallory Pugh show. No player meant more to her team this season than Pugh, whose 17 goal involvements (11 goals, six assists) accounted for exactly half of Chicago’s goals. She changes games with moments of individual brilliance, and she keeps reminding everyone of that, like she did with a stunning brace in a 4-0 win over Kansas City on Sept. 14 (when she also provided service on the other two goals). If Chicago is to make a run in these playoffs, it will be on Pugh’s back.
Yuki Nagasato deserves credit in the attack, too, and her supporting role to Pugh and its similarities to Nagasato’s role supporting Sam Kerr in her 18-goal season in 2019 should not go unnoticed. Nor should the central midfield work of Vanessa DiBernardo and Danielle Colaprico , two longtime Chicago players who have gone through the club’s heartbreaks on and off the field. They are the anchors to (and engines for) this system.
Additionally, a contextual note rather than a reason the Red Stars might win: Chicago is another club at the center of the Yates report and like with Portland, the weight of that could understandably affect performances. Red Stars players collectively issued a statement on Monday calling for principal owner Arnim Whisler to sell the team. Once again, there are similarities to the 2021 Spirit, the team that beat Chicago in last year’s final. That Washington team spent the playoffs calling for then-owner Steve Baldwin to sell the team . The players rallied around themselves in that moment . Perhaps Chicago can do the same this year.
Why the Red Stars won’t win the NWSL title Outside of Pugh, the goal scoring really dries up. Ella Stevens is the next-leading scorer with four goals, and among the Red Stars’ top six scorers are three defenders who get forward on set pieces. Shut down Pugh and you can shut down the Red Stars. That is much easier said than done, of course, and Chicago proved the theory wrong last year, picking up that huge 2-0 win in the semifinal in Portland without Pugh, who was in COVID-19 protocols.
San Diego swept the season series this year and will like its odds of matching up player-for-player with Chicago’s three-back, assuming Morgan is healthy. Seventeen-year-old Jaedyn Shaw scored the game-winner in her debut in July at Soldier Field, a 1-0 win for San Diego over Chicago.
Tatumn Milazzo and Zoe Morse have been great on Chicago’s back line this year, but they’ll have to deal with defending the Wave’s attack and also trying to play out of San Diego’s effective (and selective) high press, with the Wave at home at Snapdragon Stadium. That will be a dangerous balance if they choose to play out on the ground and San Diego brings the pressure.
