For the first time in three long years MotoGP returns to the iconic Phillip Island for the Australian Grand Prix.
The sport has missed this place. Australia is lucky to be blessed with some famous circuits, but only Bathurst can rival Phillips Island for international acclaim.
Its fast, flowing layout is a real test, but the weather of the picturesque but exposed seaside location is a close second as a challenge for riders to handle.
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There’ll be much more at stake in the sport’s latest visit to the Island too. Whereas in 2019 winner Marc Márquez had already long claimed the championship, this weekend could be decisive to the fight for the riders title, which is poised on a two-point precipice between Fabio Quartararo and Francesco Bagnaia.
Aussie Jack Miller is an outside chance to insert himself into the equation as one of seven riders still in contention, and with the Aussie in sizzling form and relishing the chance to race at home for the first time in factory leathers, he’ll be hard to bet against for a strong result.
And across the three touring categories there’s now fewer than six titles up for grabs, including a world championship, ensuring this will be a grand return to Phillip Island.
WHO WILL WIN THE FIRST RACE OF THE CHAMPIONSHIP RESET?
The Australian Grand Prix is right near the end of the calendar, but this year it’s the first round of the championship — in a way.
The MotoGP riders championship has effectively been reset to zero. Fabio Quartararo, the reigning champion, still leads, but his advantage over Francesco Bagnaia is just two points.
Aleix Espargaró is just about within a shout at 20 points. Only a big result this weekend will keep him a realistic contender.
Longer shots are Enea Bastianini and Jack Miller, 39 and 40 points off the back respectively. Brad Binder and Johann Zarco are also mathematically in contention but are likely to be eliminated this weekend.
With three rounds to go, 75 points are up for grabs, which means the championship isn’t just live but completely open.
“I‘ve spent the week training and preparing because the next two races are back to back, and they are going to be really important, but I don‘t feel worried,” Fabio Quartararo said after disappearing in the aftermath of his non-score at the Thailand Grand Prix.
“The championship is a level playing field now, so it‘s a matter of doing our best, working well together as a team and scoring as many points as possible.”
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And teamwork could well be the trick to grinding out a result for whichever contender intends to take a step forward this weekend.
Perhaps the biggest advantage wielded by Bagnaia is that he’s one of eight riders in the Ducati stable, and given the bike has become a real all-rounder through the year, just having them on the grid is making it difficult for Quartararo to score big points consistently.
“It’s the Ducati Cup in front many times, so they must take profit of this,” Marc Márquez noted after finishing the Thailand Grand Prix among four Ducati bikes in the top six, per The Race.
“They have the best bike on the grid, so all the riders are in front, so they need to use that power to win the championship.”
That in turn raises the spectre of team orders, which the Italian team has so far refused to use to decide victories but which have been deployed to stop riders from racing Bagnaia too hard for minor points.
Johann Zarco was the first to admit it, having held station in fourth behind Bagnaia in Thailand despite being the fastest rider on track late in the race.
Bagnaia had refuted suggestions he’ll need assistance from the Ducati family to win the title, though.
“I know my potential,” he said, per Crash. “I know that I can win without help in a race.
“For sure in the last two races of the championship some help would help me, but I have won six races because I was the strongest, not because somebody let me pass.
“Team orders are good for sure, but it is not for the moment.”
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Teamwork might be what Aleix Espargaró needs too, even if he has only one teammate in Maverick Viñales.
Espargaró has never finished higher than eighth at Phillip Island, but Viñales is a demon here. Throughout his entire MotoGP career he’s finished off the podium only twice. One was his debut eighth position, the other was his retirement in 2019 after battling Márquez for victory after dominating qualifying.
Having Viñales in the team will be a boon for Aprilia’s approach and could make the difference between Espargaró scoring a good result and the great result he needs to stay in touch with the title lead. At a very minimum, if Espargaró can’t win this race, he might be able to rely on his teammate preventing Bagnaia or Quartararo from doing so.
WILL A FASTER PHILLIP ISLAND STILL SUIT YAMAHA?
On paper this is a pure Yamaha track. Since the grand prix returned to Phillip Island in 1997, only four times has it been won by a bike other than the Yamaha or Honda, with all of those coming via Casey Stoner on his Ducati.
Horsepower just doesn’t count for as much around here despite it being a high-speed track. It might get you a great slipstream down the straight, where Andrea Dovizioso crack 348 kilometres per hour in 2015, but for the rest of the 4.4 kilometres the track rewards cornering speed over kilowatts.
The fact alone should stand Quartararo in good stead, and make it a danger race for Ducati, which pins its advantage on power.
What we don’t know, however, is how much that form line still rings true.
The Desmosedici is much more of an all-rounder this year, particularly in the second half of the season, after the Barcelona post-race test. Both factory riders have lauded the fact that the Ducati is no longer just for straight lines but for the corners too.
This is partly because of some Ducati engineering trickery. It’s at the forefront of both modern aerodynamics, which promote cornering speed, and the controversial front ride-height device, which boosts acceleration on exit and accentuates its existing strength.
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That could be decisive at Phillip Island. Even if the Ducati is still at a disadvantage through the flowing second and third sectors, the Italian bike is expected to really change the dynamic of the last two corners — which are effectively taken as one long sweep — by raising the minimum speed there, which in turn will give it a passing advantage into Doohan, the first turn.
There’s also the pure punishing nature of this track, one of the fastest on the calendar, for which Michelin has always had to tackle specifically. The M1’s struggles with tyre pressure could be a hidden weakness.
Given this track has long been tipped to be Quartararo’s best chance to win back some momentum, defeat here — perhaps even the risk of defeat — would be a gut punch to his title hopes.
WHICH HOMECOMING AUSSIE CAN MAKE THE BIGGEST SPLASH?
Jack Miller will get just one home race as a factory Ducati rider, and it happens to come during the best run of form in his life.
Miller has never ridden better than this. His victory in Japan was outstanding, and he so nearly doubled up in the wet in Thailand behind eventual winner Miguel Oliveira, who he’ll replace at the factory KTM team next year.
Phillip Island enjoys a strong tradition of Australians doing well at home, including Miller’s Moto3 victory in 2014 and premier-class podium in 2019, but it’s not since Casey Stoner’s victory in 2012, a full decade ago, that a home hero has mounted the top step in MotoGP.
Stoner’s 2010 victory for Ducati was also the Italian marque’s last win Down Under.
Miller is optimistic he can break that drought.
“Knowing how our bike is behaving now in the faster corners, as long as I’ve been at Ducati we’ve got the best possible package this year to challenge for a victory at Phillip Island,” he told the race’s official program. “That would be my dream come true.
“Being on the podium in 2019, the atmosphere was ridiculous. I think there’s going to be a massive turnout this year, and that’s definitely the one that’s highlighted in my calendar.”
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Further down the grid, Remy Gardner is set for a bittersweet weekend. It’ll be his first home race as a MotoGP rider but also his last, at least for now, with the Aussie unceremoniously dumped by Tech3 and set to switch to the Superbike World Championship.
It’s nonetheless an important marker in his career to return to the country in which his journey to the premier class started.
“Phillip Island is going to be amazing on one of these things, I’m pretty sure of that,” he said. “Lining up in the MotoGP class … the first time I ever saw a MotoGP race was at Phillip Island.
“I remember meeting Valentino (Rossi) that day and I said, ‘I want to do that’. So coming back this year as a (Moto2) world champion … it’s going to be a very special weekend for me.”
Gardner’s departure will mean Australia’s quote on the MotoGP grid will be reduced to just two, but fortunately there’s another Aussie setting his sights on promotion.
Joel Kelso’s first full-time Moto3 season has been full of promise and, frankly, bad luck. He’s impressed with some strong rides into the points, but two massive crashes — neither his own fault, one of them absolutely bizarre involving a riderless bike — caused massive leg injuries that left him sitting out of two races and on two long recovery journeys.
But after another strong ride to points in Thailand, he’ll get his first chance to line up on his home grand prix grid and try to end the season with some momentum he’s been deprived of the chance to build through the course of the year.
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WILL ANY TITLES BE DECIDED THIS WEEKEND?
With three races remaining on the calendar, six titles are already up for grabs across all three categories, with only the MotoGP and Moto2 constructors championships having been decided so far.
The biggest crown that could seized this weekend is the MotoGP teams championship, with Ducati in the box seat after a strong second half of the year for both Bagnaia and Miller. Borgo Panigale leads Aprilia by 75 points, which it must extend to 90 points by the end of the weekend to claim the title with two rounds to spare.
The title for rookie of the year can also be decided, with Marco Bezzecchi’s standout season, including his second place at the DutchTT and pole last round in Thailand, has put him fully 57 points ahead of the next-best rookie, Fabio di Giannantonio. He needs to lead by at least 50 points at the end of the weekend to seal the deal.
The top category’s best independent rider could also be awarded this weekend, though this one is a somewhat closer battle. Enea Bastianini’s four superb victories have put him 29 points ahead of Johann Zarco. He needs to outscore the Frenchman by 21 points this weekend to win it; unless Zarco fails to score, it’s more likely next weekend’s Malaysian Grand Prix will seal it.
Bastianini’s advantage hasn’t translated to a lead in the independent teams championship for Gresini; instead it’s Pramac team that holds an unsurprisingly comfortable lead of 75 points, the same difference in play for the overall teams championship. Given Gresini has four wins so far this season, however, Pramac would need leave Australia leading by 16 points to guarantee the championship.
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Moto3 could get a new champion this weekend, with Izan Guevara poised to put Dennis Foggia to the sword. His advantage is currently 49 points; he needs to outscore Foggia by two points to be certain of the lightweight title.
Guevara can also help his Aspar team to the team’s championship this weekend. Aspar leads Foggia’s Leopard team by 130 points. Only a miracle weekend by Leopard to outscore Aspar by 41 points would see this battle go one more round.
WHAT’S THE WEATHER DOING?
Phillip Island is in the grips of a classic spring weekend in this part of the world: heavy rain and strong wind.
The southeast of Australia is being hammered this week by an intense low-pressure system. Flood and strong wind warnings are in place in Victoria, Tasmania and southern New South Wales.
Fans will remember the last time the sport visited the Island, in 2019, MotoGP qualifying had to be called off in a 60 kilometre per hour wind, with gusts up to 80 kilometres per hour. It was rescheduled to Sunday morning, when the wind died down.
The good news is that the worst of the conditions should have cleared by Saturday and Sunday, but given how exposed the track is to the open ocean on the southern side of Phillip Island, it’s always been liable to cop some unpredictable weather, and the conditions for when the track opens for the first time on Friday morning still look sketchy.
The forecast is for a high chance of showers of up to 4 millimetres of rain throughout the morning and early afternoon and the chance of a thunderstorm.
Wind could also be a factor, with Western Port Bay and the Gippsland coast subject to a strong wind warning for Friday.
The wind and rain could be bad enough to deter any serious running given the rest of the weekend will likely be dry, but that will also have to be weighed against the fact no-one has tackled this track in three years. A lot of the Moto3 class will have been here only one, maybe twice.
This fast, sweeping track is one you need to build up to. Any lost track time will have knock-on effects to through the rest of the weekend.
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HOW CAN I WATCH IT?
Every practice, qualifying and race of the 2022 Australian Motorcycle Grand Prix is live and ad-break free during racing on Kayo and Fox Sports 506.
Friday
Moto3 first practice: 9am (AEDT)
MotoGP first practice: 9:55am
Moto2 first practice: 10:55am
Moto3 second practice: 1:15pm
MotoGP second practice: 2:10pm
Moto2 second practice: 3:10pm
Saturday
Moto3 third practice: 9am
MotoGP third practice: 9:55am
Moto2 third practice: 10:55am
Moto3 qualifying: 12:35pm
MotoGP fourth practice: 1:30pm
MotoGP qualifying: 2:10pm
Moto2 qualifying: 3:10pm
Sunday — live from the paddock at 8:45am
Moto3 warm-up: 9am (AEDT)
Moto2 warm-up: 9:20am
MotoGP warm-up: 9:40am
Moto3 race: 11am
Moto2 race: 12:20pm
MotoGP race: 2pm
