By Neil Evans
Track likely improving heavy 9 and rail out 2m.
RACE 1 – 1.15PM: HAPPY 70TH BIRTHDAY ROSS KENNEDY PROVINCIAL CLASS 1 HANDICAP (1600m)
We open with a small field over the mile on a heavy surface. Ultra-consistent four-year-old 3. Satness is very fit deep into his prep, and suited on a heavy track back at home where he’s only missed a place once in five runs. Won his maiden here four starts back, and has been in the money in three runs since. Was due to go around in last Thursday’s cancelled Gosford meeting, yet shapes up even better here.
Racing returns to Kembla Grange on Thursday.Credit:Getty
Dangers: Big watch on rival local mare 5. Nautical Miss who has trialled since a narrow maiden win here five weeks ago, while last-start maiden winner 6. Mehajir heads the rest fourth-up.
How to play it: Satness to win.
Odds and Evens: Split a special.
RACE 2 – 1.50PM: GARY MATTHEWS MIDWAY BENCHMARK 64 HANDICAP (1600m)
Tough five-year-old 3. Bak Da Man hasn’t always lived up to his ability, but remains lightly raced with a handy record in rain-affected ground. Was well backed when missing narrowly from just off the speed in the Port Macquarie Cup, and ready to strike now fourth-up.
Dangers: Home-track three-year-old 7. Extreme Freedom will relish a sharp drop in class from metro listed company, and can be ridden quieter here from a wide draw. Metro mare 2. Credit Crunch is a pure wet-tracker who surged home late to win a country class 3 five weeks ago on a soft 7, and boasts an even better record in these conditions. Gap to the rest headed by 5. Lady Redwood at bigger odds.
How to play it: Bak Da Man to win.
Odds and Evens: Odds.
RACE 3 – 2.25PM: BRAD, NEV, PHIL, DWAYNE- KEMBLA 22 MAIDEN HANDICAP (1500m)
Very open and testing affair in these conditions over this journey. Really taken by the fast-finishing effort of three-year-old Iffraaj colt 8. Natural Nine at only his second start. Suited over a bit more ground again settling back from the wide draw, bred to thrive in the wet, and is in very capable metro hands.
Dangers: Well bred 2. Long Tycoon will take great improvement from that honest first-up effort at Warwick Farm, although has to get over from the wide gate here. Big market watch on 1. Tambourine Man first-up behind two quiet trials, with blinkers added. Include in exotics 7. Awesome John second-up, 12. Pierossa second-up and a stablemate of the top selection and Godolphin-trained 14. Tradition reloading off a five-week freshen-up.
How to play it: Natural Nine each-way.
Odds and Evens: Evens.
RACE 4 – 3.05PM: DANIEL NICKSON 3YO MAIDEN HANDICAP (1000m)
Another tricky and open affair for the maidens. Promising Exosphere filly 6. Black Iris can go one better after hitting the line hard on debut at Hawkesbury when forced to travel four-wide with no cover the trip. Bred to relish heavy ground, and should be enough speed up front here allowing her to settle back with cover, and drive home late.
Dangers: Another exciting filly 8. Secaution rattled home from well back on debut at big odds in a metro maiden, and while she hasn’t seen a heavy rating, is by Sebring who rarely produces one who doesn’t get through the ground. Keep safe at big odds 11. On The Beach, who draws wide but reloads off a dominant soft track trial win, while resuming filly 18. Frontenac behind two progressive trials and Rubick three-year-old 1. Bokeem, who steps out as a gelding for the first time in blinkers off two forward trials, can both run into the minor end of the money.
How to play it: Black Iris to win.
Odds and Evens: Split.
RACE 5 – 3.40PM: DAPTO LEAGUES CLUB 4YO & UP MAIDEN PLATE (1200m)
Progressive mare 9. Principessa is a good wet-tracker who found the line well first-up in a handy metro maiden. Carries 1kg less here, and drawn to get ideal cover around midfield before launching late.
Dangers: Capable mare 5. Argentado is a big threat, resuming off two smart trials in ground he thrives in and drawn to get to the middle. Expecting 7. Definitely Maybe to return a much stronger mare for her second prep behind two soft track trials, while UK-bred and lightly raced 4. Shrill Whistle resuming off two trials is a market watch.
How to play it: Principessa to win.
Odds and Evens: Odds.
RACE 6 – 4.20PM: 50 YEARS MARRIED GREG & VAL PRENDERGAST F&M BENCHMARK 64 HANDICAP (1200m)
Plenty of value chances here again headed by 3. Russbuss who peaks fourth-up in suitable going as long as the inside section is not a no-go zone. Charged home to miss by a whisker in deeper metro class, and the eight-day back-up returning to a bigger track is a further plus.
Dangers: Metro four-year-old 2. California Surreal is a big threat scratched from Tuesday’s Newcastle meeting to be saved for this. Worked home OK first-up for 19 weeks in deeper metro BM72 grade, and she’s further advantaged back on heavy ground. The betting will tell a story with talented mare 4. Yumi, who resumes off a long spell via two forward trials, while 5. Sherwood’s One is one of a few over the odds third-up, although still unproven in genuine heavy ground. Must keep safe too tough country mare 11. Girls Are Ready who has been given eight weeks since charging home from a mile back in weaker company, but she drops in weight and grows a leg in heavy going.
How to play it: Russbuss to win.
Odds and Evens: Odds.
RACE 7 – 4.55PM: 53 YEARS @ 130- THANKS FOR EVERYTHING CG&E BENCHMARK 64 HANDICAP (1200m)
The boys’ edition is almost as open, although in raptures about the big value of provincial five-year-old 7. Da Nang Star third-up and six weeks between runs. Was swamped late behind a smart sprinter at Newcastle last time, but has since trialled well, and will get through the ground big time.
Dangers: Plenty of them headed by talented four-year-old 10. This’llbetheone resuming off two eye-catching and progressive trials. Keep safe smart 8. Kayobi who comes to hand quickly although drawn off the track, while 12. Lohnraki, who draws the fence, and 15. Man Of Reign, off a dominant heavy-track maiden win, both go through trifectas and first fours.
How to play it: Da Nang Star each-way.
Odds and Evens: Split.
RACE 8 – 5.30PM: MICK AHERN BENCHMARK 64 HANDICAP (1400m)
Lightly raced five-year-old 6. Phearson can continue on his winning way after dispatching a maiden field easily at Hawkesbury a fortnight ago. Steps up in grade here, but that was only his second run since early March, and he’s always shown a stack of potential, and thrives on wet tracks.
Dangers: On the score of ability, resuming 3. Excelladus will be hard to hold off if he gets a clear crack at them from the 350m. Has trialled strongly up to 1200m, and bolted in when fresh last prep. Provincial mare 4. Sebrenco drops back from deeper metro class fourth-up.
How to play it: Phearson to win.
Odds and Evens: Split
BEST BETS:
R1 3. SATNESS
R5 9. PRINCIPESSA
BEST VALUE:
R8 6. PHEARSON
Supplied by Racing NSW
Full form and race replays available at racingnsw.com.au.
