By Neil Evans
Track improving to Heavy 8 and rail out 7m.
Race 1: 3YO MAIDEN HCP (900m)
We start over the short trip on a slowly improving surface that could nudge back into soft 7 range. Very testing maiden, with a few either resuming or having their first start potentially shaping the market. Believe what you see with the promising Fastnet Rock filly 7. Laroupe who resumes for a second prep having won both lead-up trials over this journey, although the time wasn’t flash in her latest considering she was made to find the line.
Dangers: Improving 4. Shadow Vampire will find this much more to his liking after chasing home an impressive winner first-up in city company. Big watch on 2. Karedada by reliable wet-track sire Wandjina, and debuts now as a gelding for a shrewd provincial stable. Trialled nicely in soft going, although it’s taken a while to get him to the races after all the weather interventions. The betting will have a say with 1. Felix Majestic who starts his career as a gelding having won a trial 14 weeks ago. Both Maurice debutant 3. Senshi, behind a recent winning trial, and 12. Spitchaser, rebooting her career off a nine-week freshen-up, can both run into the minor end of the money.
How to play it: Laroupe to win; first four 2,4,7/1,2,3,4,7,12/1,2,3,4,7,12/1,2,3,4,7,12.
Odds and Evens: Split.
Race 2: 3YO MAIDEN HCP (900m)
Play it again Sam for the three-year-olds, and it’s likely to be an even more open affair. Leaning to well-bred and named Capitalist colt 5. Capital Theatre who resumes for only a second start for a leading metropolitan stable. Comes off a handy trial run seven days ago, and while he failed in heavy ground on debut in smarter company as a two-year-old, he’s been given time since and is utterly bred to get through these conditions.
Racing returns to Newcastle on Tuesday.Credit:Getty
Dangers: Written Tycoon filly 10. Tragara worked to the front but didn’t finish off first-up here, although with that experience and drawn the inside, she can be in the finish. Another one by the 2016 Golden Slipper winner, 7. Asteria disappointed over the final stage first-up at Hawkesbury when heavily backed. Drawn wide here, but also very comfortable in the going. Gap to the rest headed by 3. Jo Jo Sun, reloading after a modest debut here in late June, and Star Turn filly 8. Centre Bounce who debuts off two progressive trials.
How to play it: Capital Theatre each way.
Odds and Evens: Split.
Race 3: MAIDEN HCP (1600m)
Another tricky affair over the mile. Like improving home track three-year-old 9. Gripping peaking here third-up in the ground. By Pierro, and worked home well enough into a place through heavy going in a handy provincial maiden 13 days ago.
Dangers: Big watch on So You Think staying mare 4. Youthfull returning from a six-month spell, and two typical quiet trials. Progressed from nowhere into Group 1 company in the autumn, and while she was beaten out of sight in that company, the raps have always been there. Blinkers come off again and she’ll be finishing well. Home track Kiwi-bred colt 1. Tamar can improve sharply off a fair debut here; so too 2. Deft Leopard who draws to get a soft run second-up and showed an ability in his first prep to handle heavy ground. Improving mare 13. World Atlas heads the rest third-up.
How to play it: Gripping win.
Odds and Evens: Split.
Race 4: FILLIES & MARES CLASS 1 HCP (1300m)
Not much between several of these girls in another open battle, although metro four-year-old 1. California Surreal emerges as the best value despite having to lump 61kg. Worked home okay first-up for 19 weeks in deeper metro BM 72 grade and she’s further advantaged back on rain-affected ground.
Dangers: Talented local filly 8. Razeta is the immediate threat second-up. Did her best work late resuming in a provincial BM 64 and beat a handy maiden field in heavy going on debut in early winter. Honest mare 2. Chenin, who won over further off a break last prep, is over the odds fresh behind two easy trials. Include 3. Our Belle Fille, who draws the fence second-up with blinkers added, and first-up maiden winner 5. Smart Little Miss who loves to drift back and attack the line late.
How to play it: California Surreal win.
Odds and Evens: Split.
Race 5: COLTS, GELDINGS & ENTIRES CLASS 1 HCP (1300m)
Now for the boys’ edition, and it doesn’t get much easier in a strong and open affair for this class. Always had a big opinion of four-year-old 2. Mediaro who resumes off two quiet trials. Made big strides last prep after winning his maiden at Canberra second start, well beaten in the Group 1 Rosehill Guineas here before an even effort in Listed Saturday company at Caulfield. Suited on the bigger track and should curl up back in the field and be saved for a dominant final 400m.
Dangers: Home-track Kermadec four-year-old 3. Sir Kerm showed his real promise surging home to win a handy maiden on debut here 17 days ago. Drawn wide, but if he can slot in behind a reasonable speed, will be challenging late. Big market watch on talented four-year-old 1. Fuller who comes back to NSW after a disappointing first-up run at Sandown in a tougher grade. Naturally up in weight but maps to get a nice cover position just off the speed. Another one with plenty of promise, 6. Czar surged home late first-up in a provincial BM 64 and carries the same weight here.
How to play it: Mediaro win.
Odds and Evens: Split.
Race 6: 4YO & UP MAIDEN PLATE (1300m)
Competitive older maiden field over the same journey, although promising four-year-old 4. Floating is ready to win third-up. Has powered to the line impressively from well back in two runs this prep and is destined for bigger and longer targets. Again will settle back near the tail from a wide draw, but loves the conditions being by high class Puissance De Lune. Doubtful anything will run a better final 400m in the ground.
Dangers: Keep very progressive and lightly raced home tracker 1. Better Not Bitter who did his best work late first-up here 17 days ago. Gap to the rest headed by 8. Centrestone who debuts for a strong metro combination behind two trials; while include in exotice 3. Diamond Drummer first-up and 13. Poetic Drama third-up.
How to play it: Floating win.
Odds and Evens: Split.
Race 7: BENCHMARK 68 HCP (1500m)
Likely the widest and most challenging race on the program with a stack of chances. Lightly raced provincial four-year-old 7. Oakfield Storm is way over the odds first-up. Has only been out of a place twice in six starts and his best form is easily early in the prep. Drawn to get a handy trail just off the speed and will relish these conditions.
Dangers: Another member of a strong Matthew Smith-trained team, four-year-old stallion 6. Cool Lad has been strong through the line in two straight BM 72 affairs in different states and is looking for the extra trip now fourth-up. Up in weight but handles all ground. Doubt the inside draw under a big weight will suit local four-year-old 1. Concocted, but he’s found the line nicely in consecutive deeper BM 72 Midways after a provincial win and loves to surge late in rain-affected ground. Include in wider exotics 4. Annulus back from a fast-finishing effort in BM 72 Midway company and 10. Super with winkers replacing blinkers.
How to play it: Oakfield Storm each way; box exacta 1,6,7.
Odds and Evens: Split.
Race 8: BENCHMARK 64 HCP (1880m)
We finish over the middle distance and keen at the value on progressive metro colt 14. Bunker Hut reloading off a month’s break via a nice open-class trial win. Swept home from midfield to land his maiden at the provincial overs a mile and handled wet tracks with great application earlier in his career. Can win better races than this.
Dangers: Keep safe emerging filly 13. So Dazzling who charged over the top to win a three-year-old Sat race at Flemington over a similar trip in heavy ground and will be asked to do similar here from the wide draw. The betting will be a strong guide for 10. Captain Pluto who switches states after a narrow and all-the-way debut win at Bendigo. Progressive wet tracker 2. Sky Ace fourth-up, improving 4. Endorsement also fourth-up and lightly raced 7. Miracle Spin third-up are all each-way chances.
How to play it: Bunker Hut win.
Odds and Evens: Split.
BEST BETS
Race 5: (2) Mediator. Race 6 (4) Floating
BEST VALUE
Race 7: (7) Oakfield Storm
Supplied by Racing NSW
Full form and race replays available at racingnsw.com.au.
News, results and expert analysis from the weekend of sport sent every Monday. Sign up for our Sport newsletter
