By Neil Evans
Track Good 4 and rail out 4.5m.
Race 1 CLASS 1 & MAIDEN PLATE (2230m)
We start with a tactical battle over the staying trip on a surface that may slip just into soft range. Hard to go around superior Eagle Farm-based mare 4. Blagny who drops in class fourth-up, and likely to jump a hot favourite. Heavily backed when bolting home on heavy ground at the Sunny Coast two starts ago before finishing hard in BM 60 company 18 days ago. By far the best treated dropping 1kg for this, and winkers going on is a further pointer.
Racing heads to Grafton on Thursday with a nine-race card.Credit: Getty
Dangers: Last-start maiden winner here 3. Spills draws to get a soft run on or near the speed, and can pounce if there’s any chink in the on top selection’s armour. Honest 1. Eastwin is the best of the rest deep into his prep.
How to play it: Blagny to win and quinella 3 and 4
Race 2 3YO & UP MAIDEN PLATE (1015m)
Hard fit Armidale filly 12. Staffa gets her chance to break through from the inside barrier on a six-day back-up. Is still yet to run a place from eight starts, but has been tackling deeper races, and her recent effort making up plenty of ground at Tamworth after doing early work puts her in good stead for a race that’s very moderate.
Dangers: Watch the betting closely on ex-Victorian three-year-old 1. Aye Aye Skipper having his first run for the new Port stable off a nine-week break. The market will also be a good guide for debutant Supido filly 11. Pidosu behind a quiet trial. Include both 2. Sweden and 7. Exceed To Ambition, back on firmer ground second-up, in trifecta and first fours.
How to play it: Staffa to win
Race 3 3YO & UP MAIDEN PLATE (1015m)
Same set up here, but with a bit more depth on show. Lightly raced filly 12. Royal Divide can make a first-up statement at big odds with gear changes for the new Coffs yard. Had 24 weeks off since two low-key efforts in much tougher provincial company. Given two easy trials by a stable that has a handy fresh record, and she draws to get an economical run with cover back in the field.
Dangers: Progressive mare 3. Bel Surprise is a threat despite drawing wide, and will likely be the one to go farthest. Chased valiantly on debut here 16 days ago. Watch for any money around 2. Clubhouse returning for his first run since late August behind a narrow trial win over the border. Keep safe ex-Victorian filly 7. Credit Controller reloading off a seven week freshen-up with gear changes, while gradual improver 5. Russian Inn fourth-up heads the remainder.
How to play it: Royal Divide each way
Race 4 BENCHMARK 58 HCP (1015m)
Fairly strong and open field for this grade, with naturally several chances. Fresh off a 23-week break, love the big first-up value here about four-year-old 10. Burnt Butter. No official trials, but has been in work for some time, draws the inside, and starts a new prep without the blinkers. Only career win so far came here, and this is the lightest weight he’s carried in a long time after the jockey’s claim.
Dangers: Tough 1. Alf’s Magic is ready to win again fourth-up and back on firmer footing. Don’t dismiss reliable weight carrier 3. Welloutofreach despite drawing the outside gate. Well over the odds is 4. Golden Breeze who resumes without publicly trialling, but comes to hand early in the prep, and has a handy record at this track. Both 6. Iobject dropping in class fifth-up, and resuming mare12. Typhoon Neta are capable of running into minor money. Include resuming home track mare 8. Intoexcel in wider exotics.
How to play it: Burnt Butter each way
Race 5 MAIDEN PLATE (1720m)
Lightly raced provincial filly 13. Plaimont caught the eye running home late on debut, and can settle closer in the run here from a middle gate over more ground. Boosted significantly with the early favourite being preferred at Ipswich on Wednesday.
Dangers: Gold Coast-based 1. Amador ran home well to miss by only a long neck at this track at her second start, and the fact an experienced stable has crossed the border again 16 days later is a strong lead. Keep safe at big odds 9. Rethink It down in weight fourth-up, with a vital gear change.
How to play it: Plaimont to win
Race 6 MAIDEN HCP (1190m)
Lightly raced 1. Mr Damage is primed to break through second-up at only his fourth start. Was well backed fresh when leading well into the straight at Taree before being swamped, but fitter now over a bit more ground where the early pressure won’t be as strong, he can dictate.
Dangers: From the fence draw, with a 2kg claim and winkers added, progressive 9. Boambee Beach is the logical threat. Has worked home well in two runs back and was stiff not to win at Tuncurry 24 days ago. Only concern is being shuffled a fair way back on this map. Improving 4. Mofeed will need some early luck from the tricky draw fourth-up, but he’s been in the market all prep, and blinkers added will help utilise an edge in tactical speed. Gap to the rest headed by 2. Fiction Society who debuts behind a trial win here, and starts in winkers, and 15. Maybe Smart who drops in weight.
How to play it: Mr Damage to win
Race 7 CLASS 1 HCP (1190m)
Not much separates the leading contenders here, but settled on progressive mare 6. Street Smarts who peaks second-up over a shade further, and importantly back on firm footing. Was well supported when running home fresh under a big weight in very heavy ground, and a 3.5kg weight drop here is very significant in a race that’s no harder.
Dangers: Speedy 3. Laser Beam is fit, and can give a big sight from the low draw. Similarly, lightly raced 5. Watchguard likes to jump and run, and gets a much-needed drop in class third-up. Honest Gold Coast mare 7. Marleedoone can figure fourth-up dropping back from metro company over the border, while 8. So Greysful is the clear best of the rest drawn inside, with blinkers going on.
How to play it: Street Smarts to win
Race 8 BENCHMARK 58 HCP (1420m)
Progressive three-year-old 2. Bravezel can overcome a rise in weight and make it three straight wins. Tracked the speed before claiming a Super maiden two starts ago, then plotted a similar on-speed path to score again in heavy ground. This is only mildly tougher, and again draws to get a cosy run right behind the speed.
Dangers: Over the odds is 4. Heavy Duty third-up on an ideal map, while expecting a much better run from this draw by 1. Wonderwhen fourth-up. Both 3. Horowitz and 10. She’s Enuff go in all trifecta and first four plays.
How to play it: Bravezel to win
Race 9 BENCHMARK 58 HCP (1420m)
The closer shapes nicely for underrated Gold Coast mare 6. Smile Upon A Star who can notch a deserved win fifth-up. Has been continually working home okay under big weights, including coming from near last here 16 days ago to be beaten just over two lengths. Gets a far superior and more experienced rider this time, and can settle a touch closer.
Dangers: Big watch on 2. Twilight Rock who hasn’t been out of the placings since last spring, and has been freshened since run down late in a stronger BM 58 at Coffs. Must include 3. Albanjo who has won two from four this prep up to this level, while 1. Soarhi freshened via a forward trial, and 4. The Boi improving sharply second-up, can both add value to exotic returns.
How to play it: Smile Upon A Star to win
BEST BETS: R7 6. STREET SMARTS, R9 6. SMILE UPON A STAR
BEST VALUE: R6 1. MR DAMAGE
