There’s hundreds of ways to pick a winner in the Melbourne Cup. Maybe you look at the barrier draw, inspect the form guide, look at the statistics around past winners. Or you could even go for the colour (bay horses win most often), or which name you like most (Smokin’ Romans gets my vote).
But if that’s all too overwhelming, perhaps it’s best to trust the experts.
We found 40 experts, from Cup-winning jockeys to analysts and professional tipsters, who have shared their predictions for the race that stops the nation. The favourite, Deauville Legend, is well-supported – 17 of our 40 experts believe he’ll get the job done.
But there’s plenty of support for the likes of Montefilia or Realm of Flowers – and no shortage of roughies to get behind.
Love Spring racing? Get Expert tips, analysis and race previews from Racing.com Form Analysts in the PointsBet App. Download the app today
FOLLOW LIVE: All the Melbourne Cup action!
Cup parade returns to Melbourne | 02:31
ULTIMATE GUIDE: Everything you need to know
DUMMIES’ GUIDE: How to place a bet
COREY BROWN (Two-time winner, on Shocking in 2009 and Rekindling in 2017)
1. Montefilia
2. Deauville Legend
3. Realm Of Flowers
4. Vow And Declare
CHEAT SHEET: Two-time winner Corey Brown’s ultimate form guide
TREVOR MARSHALLSEA
1. Vow And Declare
2. Duais
3. Montefilia
4. Without A Fight
FULL FORM GUIDE: Why our expert is tipping a big upset
JAMES McDONALD (2021 winner on Verry Elleegant) via Racenet
Winner: Deauville Legend
The favourite Deauville Legend is the horse to beat, and I expect Gold Trip to run well but I’d like to see Montefilia and Duais perform too. I reckon the first half of the race is probably going to be more important than the second 1600m for Deauville Legend. He’s drawn a beautiful barrier in nine and the object for me would be to get him relaxed and have a smooth economical run in the first half of the race. I don’t care where I am in the run because I know if I get him conserving energy he’s the best horse in the race and he’ll show that in the second half of the race. My aim is to give my mount an uninterrupted run from the 600m, so I want to know what horses are where to assist me giving my horse clear air.
GLEN BOSS (three-time winner on Makybe Diva 2003-05) via Ladbrokes
Winner: Montefilia
I think I’ve found the winner – Montefilia. Her run in the Caulfield Cup was outstanding. Back in the ruck in a slowly-run race, never got clear air until about 150m from home and absolutely hit the line with a red light on her head. Jason Collett will give this great mare a wind-up and I think she will be very hard to beat.
FAVOURITE’S ‘SUPREME’ UK WIN; CLUES GALORE IN CAULFIELD CUP — The lead-up runs you need to see
SWEEP GENERATOR: Organise here
Who’s the smokey pick for the Cup? | 01:13
MICHELLE PAYNE (2015 winning jockey on Prince Of Penzance) via The Age
1. Realm Of Flowers
2. Without A Fight
3. Knights Order
4. Lunar Flare
The 50kg for Realm Of Flowers just looks so good. I love this mare. She stays, she handles wet conditions and she’s going really well. Ticks the most boxes.
JAMES LAMB via Punters
Winner: Deauville Legend
As a lightly-raced 4YO, this international visitor has a similar profile to recent Cup winners Cross Counter (2018) and Rekindling (2017). He’s only finished outside of the top two once in his seven-start career and was dominant winning the G2 Great Voltigeur Stakes (2385m) last start. His form is hard to knock – he just needs to do it over two miles.
8. Deauville Legend
6. Without A Fight
12. Hoo Ya Mal
3. Knights Order
NICK HLUCHANIUK via Punters
Winner: Realm Of Flowers
Her run in The Metropolitan suggests that Realm Of Flowers is back to her best. She finished third, beaten a nose, despite being trapped wide. Her best form saw her smash her rivals in The Andrew Ramsden at Flemington last year, putting a big space on Grand Promenade, who then went on to run sixth in the 2021 Melbourne Cup.
24. Realm Of Flowers
8. Deauville Legend
6. Without A Fight
10. Vow And Declare
LUKE SHEEHAN via Punters
Winner: Montefilia
Her Caulfield Cup run with 55.5kg was luckless, and while three of her G1 wins have come on Good 4 tracks, she’s got some impressive wet performances to her name too (notably the Ranvet this year on a Heavy 9) if its as wet as they’re predicting. Like the fact they’ve stuck with Collett too, who perhaps made a slight, costly error at Caulfield. Hopefully its redemption day on Tuesday.
4. Montefilia
12. Hoo Ya Mal
18. Lunar Flare – SCRATCHED
24. Realm Of Flowers
TOM BIDDINGTON via Punters
8. Deauville Legend
6. Without A Fight
10. Vow And Declare
19. Smokin’ Romans
FULL FORM GUIDE: Why our expert is tipping a big upset
CHEAT SHEET: Two-time winner Corey Brown’s ultimate form guide
Expert tips for the 2022 Melbourne Cup | 03:42
DAVID HOCKING via Punters
Winner: Gold Trip
Think his class is going to carry him a long way here – and it’ll need to given he’s out to 3200m for the first time and has been lumped with a hefty 57.5kg impost. But one thing we do know is that he’s found form after a runner-up finish in the Caulfield Cup and then a complete forgive run in the Cox Plate where nothing went right. He’s had a good grounding for his first crack at two miles and doesn’t mind it soft underfoot. Just needs slot in and relax in the run.
1. Gold Trip
8. Deauville Legend
6. Without A Fight
24. Realm Of Flowers
FRANCESCA CUMANI via The Australian
1. Montefilia
2. Without A Fight
3. Deauville Legend
Probability says that the Cup will stay at home (in Australia) as the home team has 22 representatives. The best chance among them has to be Montefilia. She is a four-time winner at the highest level and finished like a train when a luckless fourth in the Caulfield Cup.
AMANDA ELLIOTT (Former VRC chair) via The Age
1. Montefilia
2. Deauville Legend
3. Stockman
4. Realm Of Flowers
Montefilia flashed home late to run fourth in the Caulfield Cup and goes well on soft ground. The favourite Deauville Legend has great form around El Bodegon and Secret State, while Stockman and Realm Of Flowers will both appreciate 3200 metres and the soft track. Apologies to Without A Fight, Lunar Flare – SCRATCHED and Vow and Declare.
Weather forecast for the Melbourne Cup | 01:28
ROB SUTHERLAND via Herald Sun
1. Deauville Legend
2. Knights Order
3. Montefilia
4. Duais
DAMIEN RACTLIFFE via The Age
1. Deauville Legend
2. Without A Fight
3. Young Werther
4. Montefilia
The top two favourites, both internationals, look to have the right form to be competitive in a race of this nature. Of the locals, I would certainly entertain Young Werther at an each-way price.
PETER RYAN via The Age
1. Deauville Legend
2. Young Werther
3. Serpentine
4. Grand Promenade
The hit-and-run mission from Deauville Legend is on track with scratchings giving him a class edge on his rivals. Only needs to get the two miles with Young Werther the main danger having run well in the Cox Plate.
ANDREW WU via The Age
1. Gold Trip
2. Deauville Legend
3. Young Werther
4. Hoo Ya Mal
In a Cup lacking depth, Gold Trip’s class, as seen in 2020 Arc de Triomphe fourth, will go a long way. In form and gets preferred wet ground. Deauville Legend has form around Cox Plate placegetter.
MICHAEL MANLEY via The Age
1. Gold Trip
2. Deauville Legend
3. Smokin’ Romans
4. Without A Fight
Gold Trip has got the best traditional lead-up form for the Melbourne Cup. He was beaten in the final stride in the Caulfield Cup by an in-form stayer.
TIM HABELvia The Age
1. Deauville Legend
2. Smokin’ Romans
3. Lunar Flare – SCRATCHED
4. Gold Trip
UK raider Deauville Legend fits the same profile as northern hemisphere three-year-old Cup winners Rekindling (2017) and Cross Counter (2018). Best of the locals are Smokin’ Romans, Lunar Flare – SCRATCHED and Gold Trip.
CHRIS ROOTS via Sydney Morning Herald
1. Montefilia
2. Deauville Legend
3. Lunar Flare – SCRATCHED
4. Without A Fight
Trainer David Payne has planned for two years to have Montefilia at Flemington on the first Tuesday in November and he gets the four-time group 1 there at the peak of her powers. She caught the eye charging into fourth in the Caulfield Cup and has won a Metropolitan at 2400 metres and has beating Verry Elleegant in the Ranvet Stakes over 2000m last year. She is the perfect mix of speed and stamina and will run out the 3200m. I have a lot of respect for Deauville Legend, but his weight of 55 kilograms is three kilograms more than a European three-year-old has won the Cup with before and weight can stop a train.
CHRIS VERNUCCIO via The Australian
1. Deauville Legend
2. Without A Fight
3. Montefilia
4. Duais
BRAD WATERS via The Australian
1. Deauville Legend
2. Young Werther
3. Gold Trip
4. Emissary
GILBERT GARDINER via The Australian
1. Deauville Legend
2. Duais
3. Realm of Flowers
4. Montefilia
GLENN McFARLANE via The Australian
1. Deauville Legend
2. Gold Trip
3. Realm of Flowers
4. Duais
STEPHEN BRASSEL via The Australian
1. Deauville Legend
2. Without A Fight
3. Duais
4. Gold Trip
SCOTT GULLAN via The Australian
1. Without A Fight
2. Young Werther
3. Gold Trip
4. Interpretation
CLINTON PAYNE via The Australian
1. Deauville Legend
2. Montefilia
3. Stockman
4. Knights Order
JAIMEE ROGERS via The Australian
1. Deauville Legend
2. Vow And Declare
3. Gold Trip
4. Hoo Ya Mal
BEN DORRIES via The Australian
1. Deauville Legend
2. Gold Trip
3. Hoo Ya Mal
4. Without A Fight
SCOTT SPITS via The Age
1. Montefilia
2. Gold Trip
3. Young Werther
4. Deauville Legend
Like the look of Gold Trip but expect the top weight to feel the pinch in the closing stages. Montefilia is rightfully not far off the favourites. Can’t leave Deauville Legend out of the top five or so.
ANTHONY CARBINES (Victorian racing minister) via The Age
1. Lunar Flare – SCRATCHED
2. Without A Fight
3. Deauville Legend
4. Vow And Declare
I’ve been backing Lunar Flare – SCRATCHED since her win in the Bart Cummings and not getting off now. Jockey Mick Dee is in career best form after his breakout wins in the Caulfield Cup and the Derby.
CRYSTAL KIMBER (Cup ambassador) via The Age
1. Realm of Flowers
2. Deauville Legend
3. Without A Fight
4. Smokin’ Romans
Real Of Flowers has a low weight, is proven at the distance and loves wet ground. Deauville Legend’s only question mark is the wet track. Without A Fight has had two dominant wins in the UK, handles the wet and looks like 3200 suits well. Smokin’ Romans looked great winning the Turnbull before nothing went right in the Caulfield Cup. Right track, right jockey and well in under handicap despite recent group 1 win.
MAX PRESNELL via Sydney Morning Herald
1. Montefilia
2. Gold Trip
3. Stockman
4. Lunar Flare – SCRATCHED
With Montefilia and Gold Trip I’ve gambled on class, with the super fit Stockman in the Melbourne Cup trifecta on what could be a dour staying test.
BRAD DAVIDSON via TAB/Sky Racing
1. Realm Of Flowers
DAVID GATELY via TAB/Sky Racing
1. Realm Of Flowers
STEVE HEWLETT via TAB/Sky Racing
1. Deauville Legend
JAIMEE ROGERS via TAB/Sky Racing
1. Vow And Declare
MARC OHLMUS via TAB/Sky Racing
1. Interpretation
ALEX NOLAN via TAB/Sky Racing
1. Without a Fight
KIERSTEN DUKE via TAB/Sky Racing
1. Without a Fight
BRODIE NICKSON via TAB/Sky Racing
1. Deauville Legend
